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Understanding How Well Lin & Beverley Are Playing In 2013 Preseason

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by PhiSlamma, Oct 16, 2013.

  1. PhiSlamma

    PhiSlamma Member

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    Now, admittedly, we have only had 3 games in the preseason so far and it is the preseason, not the regular season.

    However, I just got done with some extensive research on the topic and I found some pretty shocking results. I knew Lin and Beverley were both playing well, but I didn't realize just how well.

    In the preseason stats thread, I did a calculation about how many efficiency units per minute (EPM; higher number is better) both Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley had racked up this preseason:

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8306165&postcount=43

    It turns out I was slightly wrong, because both Lin and Beverley had played 1 more minute than my initial calculations. Here are the actual numbers:

    (Minutes = total minutes played through 3 preseason games; TEFF = how many total efficiency units each player had accumulated in 3 preseason games)

    JL --- 78 minutes --- TEFF = 55 --- EPM = 0.705
    PB --- 70 minutes --- TEFF = 48 --- EPM = 0.686

    The efficiency number is based on the NBA Efficiency stat, which is calculated like this:

    PTS + REBS + AST + ST + BK - Missed FGA - Missed FTA - TO

    Now, when you see the numbers "0.705" and "0.686," it doesn't sound like much or probably mean much. But I found some numbers to relate those figures to that help point out just how impressive Lin's and Beverley's stats have been and how well they have been playing.

    The following site ranks players in the 2012-13 season in terms of NBA Efficiency:

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/nba-efficiency

    If you go to the "rate" tab above the table and change it from "per game" to "per minute," you will start to see how impressive what Lin and Beverley have done this preseason is as you are then looking at the same "EPM" stat which I calculated above for Lin and Beverley.

    Here are the top 5 players in the league for 2012-13 in terms of EPM:

    1. LeBron James ------- 0.81
    2. Kevin Durant -------- 0.78
    3. Tim Duncan --------- 0.75
    4. Chris Paul ----------- 0.71
    (Lin ------------------- 0.705)
    (Beverley -------------- 0.686)
    5. DeMarcus Cousins --- 0.65

    So, the figures for Lin and Beverley, if this were the regular season, would place them in the Top-6 of all NBA players for the 2012-13 regular season. That is unbelievable.

    Now, it could be just that the EPM figures are a bit skewed and favor players who don't play as many minutes or something similar. So I went and took the Top 15 players in 2012-13 EPM and compared them with the top players in the NBA in PER for the 2012-13 season (click on the column for PER to sort players by PER; column will turn yellow when you click on it)

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013_advanced.html

    All of the Top 15 players in EPM were in the top 50 players for PER, with the worst of the Top 15 EPM players (Larry Sanders, #9 in EPM) having the 48th-best PER in the 2012-13 season. His PER number was 18.7.

    What all of this means is that Lin and Beverley are playing even better than I realized they were and probably better than most fans realize they are playing. Will it hold up? No. Lin will not continue to shoot 62% FG and 67% threes, and Beverley will not continue to shoot 69% FG and 67% threes. And, this is only the preseason.

    But, what it does say is how hard these guys are playing to try to get that starting spot. For people who were worried Lin wasn't mentally tough enough or simply not good enough, this should help ease your mind. For those who felt Beverley may not be able to sustain his level from last year, this should similarly ease your doubts.

    Folks, it appears we have two very good, and very competitive, point guards. Rather than get lost in endless squabbles about who is going to start, maybe we should take a step back and applaud both of these young men for how well, and how hard, they are playing early in this preseason.
     
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  2. hltiki

    hltiki Member

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    Now if they can continue this during the season.
     
  3. Pumpedupkicks

    Pumpedupkicks Member

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    Great to see statistical support of the eye test. These two are playing very well! Would love to see this analysis up again after regulation starts, when the games really start to count.
     
  4. skyline07

    skyline07 Member

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    based off of 3 preseason games...? I mean I love Lin and Bev, but taking data from 3 preseason games and seeing their efficiency from there doesn't mean anything. Especially when one of them was Lin in Taiwan. We'll see, I have hope for these 2.
     
  5. Patterned919

    Patterned919 Member

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    Who is Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley? I only know of LeBron Lin and Patrick Durant.
     
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  6. PatBeverleyFan

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    Interesting fact!
     
  7. raskol

    raskol Contributing Member

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    ood post. Our boys are bringing it and competition is always good.
     
  8. roxxy

    roxxy Member

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    Remember last year when Lin was playing poorly in pre-season and everyone was freaking out, & justifiably so, even though it was a really small sample? Not saying I agree with the OP using a small sample just saying that if it was ok to freak out when someone was doing poorly shouldn't it be ok to celebrate when Lin & patrick are doing well?
     
  9. PhiSlamma

    PhiSlamma Member

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    That's all we got, man! If there were more data, I would have used it. But since the data is good for both guys, I'm happy with the results.
     
  10. jackycool

    jackycool Member

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    Great thread Paul, your stuff is always on point.
     
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  11. ccrystal99

    ccrystal99 Member

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    Great! Thank you for the research.
     
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  12. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    what are their minutes, TEFF, and EPM per game?
     
  13. tomato123

    tomato123 Rookie

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    Thanks Paul!
     
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  14. hbomb

    hbomb Member

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    I've always appreciated well thought out posts.

    Nice Phi.

    Whats better, Lin can actually slide to the 2 and play with PBev.

    Lin/Bev is a great backcourt.
     
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  15. MichaelG281713

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    What's up with all these terrible threads?
     
  16. PhiSlamma

    PhiSlamma Member

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    Sorry, I could have explained things a bit better.

    * The minutes is total minutes played through the first 3 preseason games

    * TEFF = Total Efficiency (using the stated formula) combined for first 3 preseason games. Just got Efficiency for each game then added them up.

    * EPM is Efficiency Per Minute as calculated through the first 3 preseason games. Includes all 3 games.
     
  17. Zboy

    Zboy Contributing Member

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    "those are some very very nice numbers..."

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. Pak14life

    Pak14life Member

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    Patrick Beverley and Lin have given the rockets all star level production from the 1 this preseason
     
  19. PhiSlamma

    PhiSlamma Member

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    That made me laugh out loud. Thanks!

    Yes, Kelvin was a very good preseason player. Unlike Lin and Beverley though, I don't think he ever backed it up very much outside of the preseason.

    But it is a good point. It IS only the preseason.
     
  20. yunac010

    yunac010 Member

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    Great analysis. I agree that it's pointless to argue who should start. Both guys bring something completely different, and they're both pretty damn good.

    I remember last October being less than impressed with Lin's play and felt bad that we lost both Lowry and Dragic. Fast forward a year later and we have two solid PGs who both have a good argument for starting. Oh how things have changed.
     

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