Understanding How Well Lin & Beverley Are Playing In 2013 Preseason

Now, admittedly, we have only had 3 games in the preseason so far and it is the preseason, not the regular season.

However, I just got done with some extensive research on the topic and I found some pretty shocking results. I knew Lin and Beverley were both playing well, but I didn't realize just how well.

In the preseason stats thread, I did a calculation about how many efficiency units per minute (EPM; higher number is better) both Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley had racked up this preseason:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8306165&postcount=43

It turns out I was slightly wrong, because both Lin and Beverley had played 1 more minute than my initial calculations. Here are the actual numbers:

(Minutes = total minutes played through 3 preseason games; TEFF = how many total efficiency units each player had accumulated in 3 preseason games)

JL --- 78 minutes --- TEFF = 55 --- EPM = 0.705
PB --- 70 minutes --- TEFF = 48 --- EPM = 0.686

The efficiency number is based on the NBA Efficiency stat, which is calculated like this:

PTS + REBS + AST + ST + BK - Missed FGA - Missed FTA - TO

Now, when you see the numbers "0.705" and "0.686," it doesn't sound like much or probably mean much. But I found some numbers to relate those figures to that help point out just how impressive Lin's and Beverley's stats have been and how well they have been playing.

The following site ranks players in the 2012-13 season in terms of NBA Efficiency:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/nba-efficiency

If you go to the "rate" tab above the table and change it from "per game" to "per minute," you will start to see how impressive what Lin and Beverley have done this preseason is as you are then looking at the same "EPM" stat which I calculated above for Lin and Beverley.

Here are the top 5 players in the league for 2012-13 in terms of EPM:

1. LeBron James ------- 0.81
2. Kevin Durant -------- 0.78
3. Tim Duncan --------- 0.75
4. Chris Paul ----------- 0.71
(Lin ------------------- 0.705)
(Beverley -------------- 0.686)
5. DeMarcus Cousins --- 0.65

So, the figures for Lin and Beverley, if this were the regular season, would place them in the Top-6 of all NBA players for the 2012-13 regular season. That is unbelievable.

Now, it could be just that the EPM figures are a bit skewed and favor players who don't play as many minutes or something similar. So I went and took the Top 15 players in 2012-13 EPM and compared them with the top players in the NBA in PER for the 2012-13 season (click on the column for PER to sort players by PER; column will turn yellow when you click on it)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013_advanced.html

All of the Top 15 players in EPM were in the top 50 players for PER, with the worst of the Top 15 EPM players (Larry Sanders, #9 in EPM) having the 48th-best PER in the 2012-13 season. His PER number was 18.7.

What all of this means is that Lin and Beverley are playing even better than I realized they were and probably better than most fans realize they are playing. Will it hold up? No. Lin will not continue to shoot 62% FG and 67% threes, and Beverley will not continue to shoot 69% FG and 67% threes. And, this is only the preseason.

But, what it does say is how hard these guys are playing to try to get that starting spot. For people who were worried Lin wasn't mentally tough enough or simply not good enough, this should help ease your mind. For those who felt Beverley may not be able to sustain his level from last year, this should similarly ease your doubts.

Folks, it appears we have two very good, and very competitive, point guards. Rather than get lost in endless squabbles about who is going to start, maybe we should take a step back and applaud both of these young men for how well, and how hard, they are playing early in this preseason.

 

That's all we got, man! If there were more data, I would have used it. But since the data is good for both guys, I'm happy with the results.

 

Sorry, I could have explained things a bit better.

* The minutes is total minutes played through the first 3 preseason games

* TEFF = Total Efficiency (using the stated formula) combined for first 3 preseason games. Just got Efficiency for each game then added them up.

* EPM is Efficiency Per Minute as calculated through the first 3 preseason games. Includes all 3 games.

 

That made me laugh out loud. Thanks!

Yes, Kelvin was a very good preseason player. Unlike Lin and Beverley though, I don't think he ever backed it up very much outside of the preseason.

But it is a good point. It IS only the preseason.