Russia has no interest in withdrawing from Crimea or Donbas. Those are too strategically vital and it already had control of them before 2022.One of the stated reasons for the invasion was stopping the expansion of NATO so I don’t see them accepting that either. The only agreement they probably will accept is ceding of Crimea and Donbas and the rest of Ukraine in some strategic alliance with NATO but not actual NaTO membership. Putin likely will continue to press the war until the next US Administration cuts off aid to Ukraine and turmoil in the rest of Europe means they cut back aid. That likely forces Ukraine to the negotiation to able to accept terms favorable to Russia.
Russia is taking L's like crazy in Syria, Georgia & Moldova & their economy is finally starting to crater. Pretty much the only place they're winning is MAGA/musk & the Putin Piss Baby lobby here. Sucks for them.
Well, it's been 10 years since the Russian invasion now, so the ethnic make up of the region will have changed. People who were pro Kiev would have left voluntarily, people who were pro Moscow would have stayed, Moscow would have moved people in, Moscow would have moved people out. So, it's complicated.
Not sure why Ukraine continues to fight - everyone knows Russian backed dictatorships are invincible and can never be toppled - they should just let Russian Army continue to blow their children up with bombs and rape their families to reduce the overall harm done - it's the moral thing to do - @glynch
Since we're speculating: the last thing I expect is that Ukraine will be allowed to join NATO. Not only was the prospect of NATO membership a catalyst for the hot war for Russia, it's not even something Trump wants to see happen. He doesn't want to see some treaty obligation drag the US into war for Ukraine's sake. So I would expect some agreement where Ukraine cannot join NATO but is given some non-aggression promise from Russia in return. Meanwhile, I don't foresee Russia giving up Crimea. Really not the Donbas either, which would look like a betrayal of those ethnic Russians they were supposedly trying to save. If they did give anything back, it would be for promises of regional autonomy which would give Russia a toehold for pro-Russian politics in Ukraine. Thanks to their military resurgence, Ukraine gets to keep Kharkiv. Mostly, Ukraine gets a cessation of fighting. They won't be free of Russian meddling and they can't fully join the West with membership in NATO or the EU. But predicting the future is hard.
I think the above scenario is the most likely. Ukraine will be greatly weakened. Russia will likely take this as an invitation to press other countries such as Moldova and Georgia. While not invading the Baltic states it will seek to pressure them in other ways.
I'm just checking in to see if WWIII has started yet, like the MAGA supporters said it would since Ukraine used the missiles to attack Russia.
It was a loaded question. Russia has been populating that area as best they could so of course you’ll find Russians that want to be Russian. It doesn’t matter. Lots of Texas MAGA supporters probably love Russia too that doesn’t mean that The Woodlands or Friendswood Texas should be annexed by Russia. Sovereign lines are drawn and you either respect them or you don’t. The lines in Ukraine are there for a reason too because of water supply and port access which often is the case when countries originally draw their lines there’s usually a practical reason. Not a political or ideological one.
This is basically what they had before Russia invaded. I get Ukraine wants the war to end more than anyone but I think if Zelenskyy agrees to this he’ll be signing his own end to his political career. There is no trust with Ukrainians that Putin or Russia in the future won’t again violate a peace treaty unless they have a real military that can fight them back. Joining NATO imo is the only option that makes sense. Maybe there’s a way they can carve out a new alliance with Poland, Findland and a few other countries that can operate outside of NATO to have sort of a sub NATO agreement or something I dunno but regardless there has to be a military security alliance of some sort for Zelenskyy to come to any agreement. If Ukraine is alone militarily, he’s not signing crap imo. I also think Trump is just looking for a strawman to get the US out of NATO anyways. Nobody should really care what his opinion is because we know he wants out because he’s Trump… a clear Putin stooge. Europe probably tries to make it work one more time with Trump but I’m sure they are smart enough to know that it’s likely the US is out anyways so it’s just about maintaining access to purchase arms from Lockheed, Raytheon, and Boeing at this point. If they can bring in Ukraine, say goodbye to the US, but still have the ability to purchase from US manufacturers I think Europe will take that outcome. Losing the US from NATO and losing our manufacturers though is the big question mark.
Yeah, it's not great for Ukraine, but better than complete defeat. With Trump signaling he will pull American support, Ukraine would be unwise to keep going - unless the EU steps up big, which I don't expect.
I love these people who tell Ukranians - who are quite literally fighting for their lives against bunch of gang raping, marauding, cirminal invaders - that they are "unwise to keep going" No agency or self-determination for Ukraine citizens, they are just props to a bunch of internet doucheclown advice-givers thinking the whole thing is like playing Risk! when they were kids.
At least with the people I know that’s not really how they see it. The Trump agreement you are referring to is one that from what I hear is viewed as no real agreement at all, and they would rather go alone for the foreseeable future than come to terms with Putin only for him to just continue on in a few weeks time… which is what they all seem to think he’ll do anyways. They don’t see the Trump terms as one that does anything but buys Putin time to regroup and gives official claim to the land and citizens he seized. I only see a solution where there is a new military alliance in Europe. I also see a hard time believing Trump will keep the US in NATO. So it’s going to be an interesting next few months to say the least. A lot of it hinges IMO on the executives of Lockheed, Raytheon, etc. getting in Trumps ear to convince him to stay in NATO because of the arms business or ask him to allow Europe to still buy from them if the US backs out of NATO. I think Trump and the US defense industry alignment will be the first big thing to drop. Europe can’t maneuver without our arms manufacturers. If they can maintain that while letting Trump do his nonsense I think that changes what happens in a big way with what Ukraine can negotiate in terms of a peace treaty with real security for the future.
The Ukrainians I know tell me that they think it would be foolish to make a deal with Putin without being able to join in a true alliance with Europe/NATO, or without their Nuclear capabilities coming back. Every single one of them believes it would only be weeks before Putin would break the deal and again start attacking Ukraine. As for the DMZ concept, they laughed at that. I think they said it would be like having a standing army and border wall that goes from Houston to Dallas to Austin, and back down to Houston. That's how much territory would need to be manned and walled off essentially 24/7 by a military personnel of a hundred thousand AT LEAST. And that's just assuming the DMZ wouldn't need to also guard against the Belarus border which adds even more mileage. But I only know a handful of Ukrainians (work with a few, my parents house Ukrainians as part of their church, and neighbors are from Kyiv) so I know they are complex people with differing views... especially depending on where they live as they are not a monolith..... but from what I hear they are a HELL NO to Trump's proposal, and will only agree to a cease fire, and treaty if they have a true alliance with other powerful countries backing them or allowed to develop nukes.
Instead of being a war monger like the previous poster, there are more efficient ways of repelling hostile countries.
