https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_072A_landing_ship They've spent the last decade building the **** out of their ability to amphibiously land tanks for a reason. That 30% of Javelins is also the number that was easiest to find. We've sent a significant fraction of our ready munitions reserves to Ukraine - 155mm artillery shells, etc. Also, Taiwan has nearly 1,000 tanks on inventory. If the Chinese choose a light-infantry-only invasion against 1000 Taiwaneese tanks, we probably won't need to provide any assistance to Taiwan. They'll have it covered.
I still don't think China will invade anytime soon. Their economy is sunk in a quicksand of debt, lines have gathered at some local banks, cities like Shanghai recently underwent nearly a month of shutdown and isolation. If they did attack Taiwan, they'd probably have to use 3/4 of their military to quell local protests and peasant riots. I guess they could fake mobilization to spook the US from fully committing, but the US has largely played Russia with kid gloves to avoid nuclear escalation. We pretty much let ourselves be humiliated in Syria rather than turning that a into true proxy war with the Russians. Not sure it would be a feint to help Russians, but i guess they could do it for a bargaining chip. They really need US dollars as they're burning through Trrasuries like Japan, and some global bank coordination would help bail them out right now. Taiwan has a lot of tanks and 4th gen fighter jets. Problem is whether their conscript army can drive/fly all of them in a legit combat situation. I'm not saying China's military would be top notch, but they can win a war of attrition.
I dont see a Taiwan invasion anytime soon, if not ever. At least one that leads to massive bloodshed. We all know Russia wont step within a foot of NATO borders. We have made it very clear not to attack sovereign Russian soil with our weapons. Maybe Putin thought Kiev would fall quickly and a new pro-russian government would step forward and quell any major street fighting. Even if this was the original goal, it doesnt matter. Putin is happy to take second best; Endless American resources flowing into the Kiev outpost. Kiev gives him a solid buffer to ensure some lunatic commander doesn't go rouge, starting WWIII. Taiwan is different. A kinetic war would be incredibly difficult and likely draw in more ire from neighboring countries. China is too vulnerable to risk a kinetic war. China is likely trying to get Taiwan in a credit default situation that destabalizes the country as a whole.
LoL China should worry about their own credit situation over Taiwan's. I don't think Taiwan has grown much over the last decade. The people are underpaid in proportion to their productivity, and urbanization outside Taipei hasn't exploded like S Korea's. Unlike S. Korea, their personal and public debt ratios are low because they're more or less financial pariahs. They can't trade their money on global exchanges, and they have an ~80B reserve in Dollars as collateral for trading with Taiwan dollars. The average global investor can't scoop up real estate even if they wanted that risk. I agree that China and Russia are perfectly happy claiming superpower status by asserting dominance as a regional hegemon. I also think post-ukraine NATO fears are overblown in the sense that Putin doesn't gain much with a real war. Bullying smaller post-soviet bloc nations should be feel good instant wins that confirms their people's fragile pride in a mostly grey Soviet past. Going head to head with NATO would remind their people of the 80s USSR rather than the 70s...not good. Ofc, we should react with them poking us in the eye or undermining our every move, but making everything hyperbole as the Next Great War is nothing but media hype.
I believe you misunderstood about China/Taiwan credit situation. I was speaking more of China trying to undermind Taiwans banking system into a situation where China would have legal claims to certain financial avenues. I forgot where I came across the media, but it was suggested that China doesnt like how Taiwan is being used for capital flight. The example stated is that China has strict capital controls leaving the country. You can't go to other countries and convert large holdings of the yuan into USD. Taiwan offers exotic vacation opportunities. You can't take 68 billion CNY and convert it to 10 million USD to go gambling in Taiwan, but you can buy a 68B CNY vacation package at a resort that comes with 60B CNY in poker chips that can be converted at any time for 10M USD. Taiwan is being accused of being a launder for CNY.... and we have seen countless times how the US has handled situations like these. If you try to trade your Petrodollar for Euros, we will find weapons of mass destruction and topple your regime.
That’s an interesting point. The PRC has made it much easier to business with Taiwan as per of their approach to tie the two together. I wouldn’t be surprised if some enterprising people in the PRC are also using it to move capital out of the PRC.
If China were to take action against Taiwan, I doubt it invades but rather it would blockade it and try to starve the country / isolate it from the world.
Agreed I was reading that Taiwan has been preparing for invasion for the last 40 to 50 years and their terrain is such that it would be almost impossible even for super power to invade otherwise it would definitely have been done by now by China but this is what China could do is to try to block. It makes sense
Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump, Rand Paul, Ron Johnson, Matt Gaetz, Ron DeSantis all said the same thing! Except...
It's amazingly ironic that Sting and Tucker Carlson can say the same thing yet mean completely different things.
Taiwan would start it or instigate China to shoot by running the blockade. We would get dragged into it. Taiwan isn't just going to sit there and starve.
A military blockade / siege is an act of war. If the PRC were to completely cut off Taiwan the US would likely intervene as much as if the PRC landed troops on taiwan.
Yes by international law but in reality it would be very hard for the US to engage militarily with China. More than likely what would happen is the US military would start to escort ships in and out of Taiwan and China would not confront US ships but that would still really hurt Taiwan's economy.
