A lot of the stuff I'm hearing coming out of Ukraine sounds very similar to another embarrassing event in Soviet Military history. In the winter of 1939 The Soviet Union attacked Finland at the start of the WWII. While the Soviets had superior numbers they were also poorly equipped, poorly led and had a breakdown in discipline. During one battle that became known as the "Sausage War". Soviet soldiers initially pushed back Finnish defenders but were distracted by the smell of leftover sausage soup the Fins were eating and ignored orders to press forward. Instead tired, hungry and cold Soviet soldiers stopped to eat the soup and that gave the Finnish time to rally and counterattack. The end result was they drove back the Soviets and casualties were 5-1 in favor of the Fins. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Varolampi_Pond
If this is not a war of resources, then what is it? Israelis and Palestinians fighting, for whatever reason, has little impact on the rest of the world.
This is a war of territory and ideology. Putin is interested in reconstituting the old Russian Empire and is also threatened by the pro-Western and democratic leaning of the current Ukrainian government. If that was the case we wouldn't see so much interest by the rest of the World in what happens in that region.
I love how he can go from basically whispering during his speech where you think he's about to nod off...and then he turns on the volume to where he's about to reach screaming level. It keeps me on my toes with the remote volume control.
All the "disputed" separatist regions are full of fossil fuel reserves. Ukraine's old black sea exclusive economic zone makes them the second largest gas nation in Europe... Right behind their neighbor who was focused on building more pipelines to Europe. Oh hey, Ukraine doesn't need to build new pipelines to Europe... It's very much parallel to the US invading Iraq for fear that their influence (sanctions) wasn't enough to remove Saddam even to the point where he was rapidly rebuilding his military. Way more than people think...
I was going to make a snarky response; If Iraq was part of NATO, would the US invaded? I dont agree with Russia invading Ukraine and I dont agree with the US invading Iraq. Both invaded countries posed a significant threat enough for the bully to come in and destroy their government...while the world sat by in disapproval. I feel like the mainstream narrative is trying to pair up the events of Nazi Germany. Even to this day many people still do not understand the events that happened in the 1930's. An excerpt about Lloyd George regarding WWI reparation's: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/greatwar/g5/cs1/background.htm The ideal solution is to ensure as many countries can be as prosperous as possible. The reality is Putin knows there is blood in the water and the American monetary/economic policies are crippled. Most Americans have not experienced a time period when oil was not priced in USD and generally do not understand the power this yields.
The unfortunate thing that isn't mentioned about that war is that despite the huge losses by the Soviets, the peace treaty that was signed still resulted in the Soviets annexing parts of Finland. I hate to think that the end result of this war has the Russians taking over much of the Donbas.
Good point there are a lot of resources there. Also Ukraine is the world's second leading wheat producer and during the Soviet times was known as the Bread Basket of the USSR.
True the Soviets did gain in that war and part of the eventual fallout was "Finlandization" where Finland remained neutral with concessions to the USSR. Finland as a whole though didn't fall and the current tensions might just drive Finland into NATO. Ukraine might very end up giving up territory and some sort of Finlandization. That might be seen as rewarding Putin but it might be the only alternative to losing the whole country and / or major devastation of the cities. Zelensky is willing to talk to Putin and certainly Putin isn't going to just pull back the Russian border. Like in the Finnish war just because the enemy is in disarray still might not make up for the massive numerical advantage.
I mean there are ethnic and strategic motivations for Russia invading. Ethnic Russians transplanted from the Soviet era dominate the industrial eastern half of the nation. Ukraine could very well be balkanized over time with **** leadership. It's just Putin's impetus to invade is because of those gas reserves and pipelines that could ruin his grasp on the EU, pay for Ukraine's enormous arms purchases, as well as fast track their membership into NATO/EU. "Standards" (free fair elections/markets) quickly erode when the big boys are freezing their asses off while they're kneedeep in snow begging for Putin's gas.
What's ironic in all of this is our 7 decade intervention policy of petroleum rich nations for lower gas prices at the pump. The diplomatic playbook for Ukraine is very similar to Saddam's invasion of Kuwait... Garner global support, leverage post WW2 institutions designed to contain communist legitimacy, make the world beg the US to act. Things aren't as peachy when we're the instigator. We fostered failed coups that destabilised and wrecked Iran and Venezuela. The second Iraq war... Inevitably and successfully, it was all to sustain a median gas price between 1-3 dollars in the post embargo world. If environmentalists are cold bitter partisan warriors like their greedy Pro-Carbon counterparts, they might want a destabilized Ukraine where the West is forced to cripple Russia's gas trade and Ukraine's fields are never in play for the EU. Gas prices would be wrecked. This would force alternatives (and shale) to be prioritized. Ofc there'd be riots along the way, but could be romanticized as "more Noble" than the Carbon folk who prioritize money over principles...
karma is a b i t c h ! One month after the invasion, Top Russian general who bragged invasion would only take hours killed in Ukraine A lieutenant general in Russia’s military was killed in a strike near the city of Kherson on Friday, the highest-ranked officer to be killed in the war so far. Lt. Gen. Yakov Rezantsev is reportedly the seventh Russian general to die amid the country's invasion of Ukraine and the second of his rank to be killed. Morale is believed to be low among Russian soldiers, with some troops fatally turning on their own commanders in recent days. At the outset of the war, Rezantsev told his soldiers the invasion would be over within hours, prompting unrest among his subordinates as the war dragged on for weeks, according to a conversation intercepted by the Ukrainian army. This led to increasingly low morale among troops, supposedly forcing senior officers to the front lines, according to the BBC.
Wife and I took our kids (16, 12, 10) to the Holocaust Museum today. Initially, it was for the RBG exhibit (huge waste of time. Just read her wiki page and you’ll get what you need), but of course we went through the whole museum. It was interesting and also a bit frightening to see the parallels between Hitler attacking Austria and then Poland and what Putin is doing and saying. I think it helped the kids understand it better, too. It’s frightening because all of the markers are there. Propaganda and controlling what your people hear and see. Creating and blaming a non-existent threat as a pretext and then attacking. Luckily he’s apparently a terrible Commander In Chief and they’re stuck in the muck instead of conquering Ukraine in days like he figured. I’m beginning to think that even if Ukraine does eventually fall, they did enough damage and forced the Russian military to use up way more resources than they planned to prevent them from going even further.
