No more American Troops - people need to fend for themselves, economic impact only. The troops that went to Afgahnastan were not defending our freedom they were propping up the billionaire class and dying to keep them in charge....no more American lives to protect the rich. We need to shrink our military by 50% or else it will bankrupt this country. I am all in favor of a multinational hit squad that takes out leaders of any country that is going to war...... DD
We have no interest there. As long as Russia is Europe's biggest natural gas supplier they aren't saving Ukraine either. This isn't about the greatness of Russia and the second Hitler and we must do something. I know Putin comes of like that but this isn't the 40's. All these issues are about money. All Russia wants is Ukraine's gas and as long as Germany keeps buying that's it end of story
It would be interesting to see a Russian invasion and Ukrainian insurgency. Insurgencies are hard to put down but accounting for the various factors, I think Russia would have a good shot.
Yea, well, obviously such conflicts are tragic but it doesn’t mean observing/studying them cannot be interesting.
I really fear this is a Guns of August situation where war might be inevitable. We would think in these days of interconnected economies and other interdependencies through Globalization that war between great powers could be avoided but the forces of nationalism and the desires of autocrats to appear very strong still make it very possible.
Putin is going to time his invasion for maximum political benefit. Probably would have invaded sooner if not for a Trump victory in 2016.
100% he prevented Russia from invading Ukraine by virtue of his alliance with Putin But he didn't keep us out of war given that had Russia invaded Ukraine he would have done nothing (so we would not have gone to war).
No he actually made it more likely. The nationalistic positioning is untenable to peace. Especially when it comes to Eastern Europe. Trumps corruption can hold dictators short term but the corruption only further entrenches them financially in the oligarch entanglements and the further you remove your country from the Democratic process the more likely it is that violence and war becomes reality. It’s like drinking heavily two nights in a row to avoid a hangover.
Of course there are differences. The people are different and the geography is different. There are still many of the same geopolitical considerations and it's not clear whether the Russian military has learned the lessons of Afghanistan, it's doubtful the US has either. I really see nothing about the current Russian military that says that it could put down a sustained insurgency. Given that they are still dealing with insurgencies in places like Dagestan it will be much much harder in Ukraine which has a much larger population and will also be getting a lot of aid from other countries.
I don't see the stomach for US or Western Europe to get involved to the degree they would have in the past.... the will just isn't there and I believe Russia knows that, as does China.
I always appreciate your educated opinions on topics like these. Having said that, I don't think Russia would fail in putting down an insurgency in the Ukraine. First, Russia has been working covertly for years in the Ukraine and is well aware of who is and isn't a problem in a possible invasion. The groundwork has already been laid. Second, there are more people in the Ukraine that would support or be indifferent to an invasion by Russia than most people in the West believe. Third, the USA and even more so Western Europe are not going to spend the time and cost to send the troops into the region that would be needed to keep the Ukraine from falling into the hands of Russia. The possible invasion of Taiwan and the activities of China will also play a part in all of this. The current President of the United States is weak, just as the prior President was weak. The USA currently is very divided on just about everything and inflation is running rampant. The stomach for a strong response to Russia is low. We cannot as a nation agree on how to feel about Russian manipulation in our elections. We have wildly popular media people showing sympathy for Russia and Putin. I think it is inevitable that the Ukraine falls to Russia and a real possibility in the next decade that China takes Taiwan. Concerning the Russian military, they will likely not follow the rules and limitations that most governments would.
The Soviets were far more brutal in Afghanistan than we were. They did many things that were considered war crimes then and now. After 8 years of fighting they ended up with the same result that we did after 18 years. The Russians were very brutal in Chechnya and they leveled the city of Grozny but there are still active insurgencies in Chechnya and neighboring provinces. If not for the breakup of the Soviet Union they likely would still be fighting insurgencies in several former Soviet Republics. As is they are embroiled in conflicts in several of their former possessions such as Moldova, Azerbaijan, Georgia and so on. The Russian military could easily defeat the Ukrainian military just like we easily defeated Saddam’s. That’s not the issue. It’s a protracted occupation and trying to keep the peace and stability. In Ukraine there has already been years of fighting in the eastern part where most ethnic Russians live. As such the Ukrainians already have first hand experience with insurgent conflicts. At the same time the Ukrainians have had multiple revolutions where they have pushed out leaders seen as being Pro Russian. For the people who got out and fought in the streets of Kyiv to oust Lukashenko I doubt they would be willing to role over for an actual Russian occupying force. I’m seeing some analysis that the Russians know this themselves and any outright invasion might only be to secure the parts that are already pro Russian while avoiding actually occupying Kyiv or other parts. I’m in my phone but will try to post links later
