From the yoke of English tyranny Though I think the Welsh have grown fat and indolent with their meat pies etc etc
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html So where do you guys stand on Ukraine. If Putin attacks, what is your expectation of our response. I'm starting to feel that Putin has won the chess game on Ukraine. His influence on our political climate where we can't agree on anything pretty much ensures that we won't really do anything substantial if it does happen. I could be wrong but I doubt it. Too many people will say that it's not our place to get involved just like in WWII when we let Germany gobble up neighbors until Japan brought us into the war.
A couple of blokes in the pub notice a pair of women have been sitting at a table for an hour without anyone else approaching them. They hear them talking in an unusual accent, so they decide to use that as an icebreaker and walk over to chat them up. "We haven't seen you in here before, and I overheard your lovely accent. What part of England are you ladies from?" One of them replies without looking up, "Wales." "Ever so sorry. What part of England are you whales from?"
The reason I ask this now is because I know the many of the conservatives will take the position that is opposite to whatever Biden does after the fact. So let's state your position now. My position is to work with our Allies in Europe and pretty much put the clamps down on Russia economically. I'm talking complete embargo including food. I would also give Ukraine all the resource support they need to defend themselves but I would not send any troops. China would be a sticking point, because if China agrees to continue trade with Russia, then everything could just run through them which increases their influence.
I am good with your position, but would be also willing to send troops if the economic sanctions didn't work.
Great measures. I agree. I would also like to put on the table Ukraine acceptance into NATO. Russia is trying to make sure that they aren't allowed into the Organization. I would threaten to allow them in, and if Russia doesn't de-escalate then we should admit them into NATO.
Ukraine isn’t formally in NATO, but is part of the EU. I like what Biden is doing, because if Germany isn’t on board then it feels pretty pointless. If Germany is on board then send troops to Ukraine or send more military hardware (we’ve sent like $3 billion in military hardware to Ukraine over the past few years). Also, invading Ukraine could backfire for Putin and cause more, developed countries like Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Bottomline, EU needs to piss or get off the pot with Russia.
Europe is in the middle of a crippling energy crisis knee deep in the bowels of winter. Good luck getting them to tell Russia to piss off when their asses are freezing on the line.
That is a definite problem. But we should prepare alternatives and increased imports from other regions before negotiations so they can be assured that they will have a supply, even if it is a little more difficult.
And the US has been sending record LNG exports to Europe but that’s not sustainable without some sort of long term deal. Asia is also a very profitable market for US gas. I had hoped Biden would have figured out how to unwind or wrap up Trump trade war, instead the US and it’s allies are still disjointed while China and Russia are cozying up.
Things look very grim. My preference would have been not to have said publicly what we would do if Russia "openly" invaded Ukraine (they already have troops "out of uniform" in the "rebellious" part of Donbas), but that ship has sailed. Certainly the most severe economic sanctions possible in response, but that only works if the EU is unified to support it. Exactly what Russia does, where they "invade" makes a difference, as well. I'm also very concerned about China. They may attempt to take Taiwan if we send large land and air power to Eastern Europe, a logical response if Russia invades. Our navy is spread all over the world, neglected in large part due to Bush's invasion of Iraq costing such a huge percentage of our defense budget for years. At least a trillion dollars sunk into Iraq. China is a wild card.
Just as I suspected. None of the conservatives are going to chime in. No matter what Biden's response is, they will criticize it.
You aren't surprised, and neither am I. Watch them seize on my comment about telegraphing what we might do in response ahead of time. I'm sitting back waiting for them to do it.
That's a bit rash. Why not put a nuclear device in the Himalayas so it melts some mountains? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-56102459
I think the challenge is getting Europe on board - they seem very much in passive mode and dealing with so many internal problems. I think the most likely option is the US funds an insurgency - ala Afghanistan in the 1980's: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/us/politics/russia-ukraine-biden-military.html “If Putin invades Ukraine with a major military force, U.S. and NATO military assistance — intelligence, cyber, anti-armor and anti-air weapons, offensive naval missiles — would ratchet up significantly,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was the supreme allied commander at NATO. “And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.” He pointed to American support for the mujahedeen in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion there in the late 1970s and 1980s, before the rise of the Taliban. “The level of military support” for a Ukrainian insurgence, Admiral Stavridis said, “would make our efforts in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union look puny by comparison.” Personally, I would put US and NATO troops in Ukraine now, so if Russia invades, they are attacking NATO directly and hope that would be a deterrent. But I don't see the US engaging in a true war with Russia and Russia knows that, so I suspect they invade within a few months, and so the insurgency might be the most realistic option. edit: If I'm Russia, I'd wait until summer of 2024 when the US is sucked into a political campaign. But there's no way you can leave 100,000 troops on the border for 3 years and who knows what can change in the meantime (and this is largely about Russia's internal politics), so that seems unlikely. So that's why I suspect spring 2022.
This conflict legitimately keeps me up at night. Global nuclear war and the fallout is an irrational (or rational) fear of mine. The bombs dropped in WWII were devastating and yet our current arsenals dwarf them. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/3714.jpeg
Go back to sleep. We ain't nuclear warring over ish we have no concern in [ See Afghanistan This ain't Russia's first rodeo
No, I don't see Nuclear war because only dumb countries would try to start one. However, I do see a domino effect if they invade Ukraine. It will embolden China and their ambitions.
