Makes you wonder why South Korea didn't move their vital functions and population center from Seoul to some place further south and well protected in the last 50 years.
It does make it easier for them to simultaneously make offensive maneuvers and defend the capital while shortening their supply lines. Think of Richmond and the Army of Northern Virginia.
Because that would involve the North moving their heavy artillery into the DMZ, and any significant movement of North Korean forces could be easily spotted with our existing satellite, air recon, and ground installations and taken care of easily with preemptive strikes.
NK doesn't need to move anything to shell Seoul. Their artillery is already in place and can reach Seoul.
I'm aware of that. I was just going along with Hayes' "first strike" scenario. That's the sort of thing that would be required if things really went "south" between North and South Korea. Regardless, Seoul would be devastated, which is not something any sane person would want to happen.
You do know Seoul is surrounded by mountains right? The only waterway around that area is the Han river and that haven't been used since world war 2 because it enters the Yellow sea at the North and South Korean boarder. You can't just go ahead and move a city that contains more than half the South Korean population that has been Korea's economical, political and cultural center for centuries.
No with their current location. North Korea does have a significant artillery force, but they can't hit Seoul unless they advance from their position. Which would make them vulnerable to artillery and air strikes.
Not Seoul's outskirts. Seoul's outskirt is about 30 miles from the DMZ, the best artillery the US currently have has a max range of 19 miles(with rocket support). And I am willing to bet our $700 billion military budget the North Koreans don't have any artillery close to that.
Well, the top US commander in South Korea says that the north could "rain" artillery on Seoul today. source [rquoter] N.Korea has world's largest artillery force: US The top US commander in South Korea said on Wednesday that North Korea has the world's largest artillery force and could rain fire on Seoul should the communist state decide to provoke all-out conflict. General Walter Sharp's comments came amid rising tensions on the peninsula. Last Saturday the North's military reminded South Korea that its densely populated capital is "only 50 km away" from the border. Sharp, commander of some 28,500 US troops in South Korea, said the North has "an old but very large military that is positioned in a very dangerous place, very close" to South Korea. "They have a very large special operating force. It has the world's largest artillery force that is positioned as far south as possible and that can rain on Seoul today," he told local business leaders. The North maintains 80,000 special forces and is believed to have some 13,000 artillery pieces deployed along the border, Sharp said. Cross-border relations are at their worst in a decade after South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak abandoned his predecessors' policy of providing almost unconditional aid to the North. Pyongyang is also angry at Seoul's announced intention to join a US-led initiative against shipments of weapons of mass destruction. It says any move by its neighbour to join the Proliferation Security Initiative would be seen as a declaration of war. Sharp said US and South Korean troops are prepared to "fight and win" at any moment, stressing they "have operational plans prepared in order to be able to meet any contingencies". [/rquoter]
I think people need to not get too hung up on actual artillery tubes, although you certainly need to keep them in the equation. Just as China is continuing to park huge numbers of rockets and missiles within range of Taiwan in order to intimidate and influence their government, as well as use if they ever decide to go to war with that country, North Korea has huge numbers of rocket artillery that aren't governed by a "limit" to their range like conventional artillery, and that includes chemical warheads and god knows what else on the tips of the damn things.
Serious question. How long do you think NK could sustain any type of real military incursion before total collapse? A couple of weeks?
Not being an expert, I don't know, but does it matter, except to military planners? The damage done in two weeks, both north and south of the DMZ, would be incredible.
yes, all out war where they move their artillery across the border. I am not saying they should be taken lightly, but South Korea is no pushover, and any advances by the North Koreans would be crushed by South Korea and the forces the US have had there.
Not long at all, since the US and South Koreans have total air superiority over the North it would be very difficult if not impossible to supply their forces. I also doubt the North Koreans could even make it across the DMZ, the only chance they have to make a real push into South Korea is if they go all out with their million man army and try to over run the entire border . But to do that they need a highly organized and well trained force (which they don't have) and the ability to keep a supply chain(like i said earlier they can't). That been said the North Koreans would still be very formidable should they fight a defensive war on their own soil. They would have 100% support of the population because they could spin it as the west invading their land, while I doubt there would be unilateral support within South Korea and United States should we choose to push into North Korea. North Korea's geography is also more mountainous than the South, which would make it a lot easier to defend and wage unconventional warfare , think Afghanistan. Also it would be a lot harder for us to hurt their infrastructure and economy (can't destroy something thats not there), while any conflict will surely effect South Korea and US's economy. Which means the North could afford to drag it out where we would need a swift and decisive victory.
Google OPLAN 5027. The DoD believes possible and plans for the likelihood of North Korea bombarding Seoul using artillery pieces in fortified, entrenched, and camouflaged mountain positions in North Korea. They expect that the North could do this with little notice or preparation and without invading the South. Simply put, the 8th Army disagrees with you. Respectfully, I will defer to the combined weight of their professional credentials, mindful of the fact that I am unaware of your experience in that arena.
Agreed. N. Korea not only has huge Artillery, they have a million man army. South Korea would take heavy heavy casualties no matter what. In addition refugees from N. Korea to both China and S. Korea would wreck or at least put severe strain on their economies. Nobody wants that. Before we take any kind of military action every single other possibility will have been exhausted.
