Interesting stuff. I agree though that unless oil prices can stay high then there won't be an incentive to do oil shale. Any oil extracted from oil shale will just go into the global market and depress prices all around reducing the incentive to continue expensive oil shale extraction. Its also possible that if OPEC starts feeling threatened by oil shale they will increase production themselves and drop prices. I think this is interesting but only a stopgap measure to the longterm of reliance on non-renewables. As for the PRC I believe they are already looking into developing renewables sources of energy and to cleaning the environment. THey've made a huge commitment to not only cleaning up the Beijing area but also many other parts of the country for the 2008 Olympics and are aware that environmental degradation will come back to haunt them. How fast they can deal with that and still keep up with their economic growth is difficult to say and right now the economy is outpacing attempts to reform.
The estimated EROEI on oil shale is anywhere from 0.7 to 13.3 (link). Is the distribution of oil shale in US clustered near high, middle, or low end of EROEIs? I wouldn't make such ignorant claim without any first hand knowledge. The real estate prices in Shanghai, for instance, are quickly outpacing those in average US cities in Midwest.
I'd love for more refineries to be built in the US. Hasn't happened in 30 years, though. A new refinery in Saudi does the US no good due to it being very dangerous to transport refined product large distances.
I heard the other day that an ice cream cone in Hong Kong is nearly as expensive as one in Wichita, Kansas!
If it's $60+ bpg, they'll find a way. Some of the in progress refineries there are planned to supply the east coast, but the increase in the world's refined oil supply alone would have an impact. Domestically, they're too scared of ruining the supply balance. IMO, it's much harder to prove at a grand jury than price fixing (already hard).... Like apostolic already wrote, $60+ bbg isn't guaranteed. No one in that sector wants another $10 bbg like the early 90s....
Motiva's doubling the size of their port arthur refinery..so not technically a new refinery..but when done, its the largest one in the us....
Well, since we're discussing oil, apparently the Middle East is not the only trouble spot for us, a lot of turmoil in Nigeria as well.. http://www.independentng.com/news/nnjan190602.htm Niger Delta: U.S. May Delay Troops Deployment Militant group warns of more bloodshed Soldiers shun escort duty Armed conflict in the Niger Delta may stalk plans to deploy American marines to the region, military officials have said in Washington. Pentagon sources confirmed that officials are reviewing an agreement with Nigeria that would have marines protect oil facilities because of the growing battle between Nigerian armed forces and insurgents. The escalation of conflict causes worry in the administration because of the importance of Nigeria as a source of oil for the U.S. Insiders said the government is reducing its reliance on Middle East supplies. Nigeria is the third major oil supplier to the U.S and there are widespread fears that the fighting will push up the cost of heating, especially during this winter. But other sources said the Niger Delta is rather too unstable to deploy marines. "We do not want our forces to be directly involved in the military operation currently being undertaken by Nigerian forces. Subject to further discussions with Nigerian officials, the marines will only go in when the intensity of the conflict has reduced significantly", Pentagon officials said. They recalled that the issue was discussed at a meeting between President Olusegun Obasanjo and security chiefs in Abuja. Marines are better trained and equipped to tackle security in Nigeria’s South South but Washington is wary of being accused of "engaging in military conflict without the authorisation of Congress". The formerly classified discussion between Abuja and Washington on the deployment was revealed by impeached Governor of Bayelsa State, Diepreye Alamieyesegha, in Yenagoa last year at a meeting with stakeholders in the oil industry. He said the Nigerian authorities were under pressure to deploy marines to protect American oil companies. The forum was attended by Science and Technology Minister, Touner Isoun, Transport Minister, Abiye Sekibo, Police Affairs Minister, Broderick Bozimo and Ijaw National Congress President, Kimse Okoko. Meanwhile, Nigerian military personnel have shunned request by Chevron to escort food stuff and other materials to their flows stations. The company’s workers are fast running out of food. Yet its efforts to persuade the security men to escort boats carrying materials through the water ways fell on deaf ears. The soldiers claim shortage of personnel. No fewer than 30 soldiers have been reportedly killed in the latest confrontation with Ijaw youths. Chevron may be forced to shut down its flow-stations due to lack of food and other essential supplies to its workers in the field. Several speed boats loaded with the materials are stranded at its jetty in Warri. Chevron is the second largest oil company in Nigeria after Shell. On Tuesday, a militant group in the Niger Delta known as the Martyrs Brigade said it has entered into a war alliance with another group, Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), to fight against injustice in the region. The group in a statement in Port Harcourt, signed by its spokesperson, Cynthia Whyte, claimed that the Movement has about 4,223 men to prosecute the battle. The group is believed to be responsible for the abduction of expatriate oil workers in Bayelsa State. The group, which spoke against the backdrop of the resumption of the trial of the detained leader of the Niger Delta Volunteer Force, Mujahideen Dokubo-Asari, warned that the time for pleading for his release is over, adding that they are now prepared to strike. According to the militant group, they are not disturbed whether a new judge would be quickly conscripted from Maiduguri, Lagos, Sokoto or Ibadan to replace the one earlier brought in from Benin to fix the job, warning that the abuse of judicial process by the Federal Government would be challenged. The statement added: “By now, they would have realised that the time for talk, talk, and talk is over! Now it is time for bang, bang, and bang!! We will hit them and smoke them out from every corner of our fatherland. We will not spare them. “Our rivers will be reddened with their blood. Our fishes and birds of the air will feast on their flesh. If they attempt any Odi or Odioma-style invasion, we will not sit idly by. We will give to them the way they have given to us”. The group said it had earlier warned “the imperialist collaborators of the Nigerian state” to leave the Niger Delta but they chose to remain believing that they would be protected by federal troops. “This is only the beginning of the beginning. The next phase of this onslaught shall be the end of the beginning of the beginning. Then, we shall take the battle down to the corridors of our enemies. Our mandate is to rid the region of occupation forces. “We are not rivals but compatriots and pathfinders of a new Niger Delta history”. The group urged market women, unemployed and employed youths to join in the struggle until their “enemies” flee the land.
