[Twitter Rumor] 3-way talks with Chicago, Houston and Utah?

Maybe you're right. I will clarify.

In the context of MOREY-ball, various propriety metrics are employed to identify players who contribute beyond conventional statistics. Certainly, conventional tactics are employed to ascertain a player's "market value" (i.e., making a shnizz-load of phone calls to other GMs, front offices, etc.). Comparing the outcome of the proprietary metrics against a player's relative "market value" around the league goes a long way in how Morey decides to make a roster move.

This was clearly the case with Kyle Lowry. Sure, Lowry has a relatively cheap contract. But Morey also had to take on Brian Cook's albatross of a deal, which basically netted out to about the same money the Rockets would have otherwise paid to Rafer Alston. In this instance, the Rockets did not save ANY money. But it was Lowry's intrinsic basketball value (determined, in large part, via the Rockets' propriety metrics), which rated favorably compared to Lowry's then current "market value" around the league, that prompted Morey to make this move.

 

Hey Rambo I believe I said that this trade wont Happen and yes i think the pick much more valuable then Scola

 

beautifully put, but i've learned long ago that it's a waste of energy trying to convince those who deify morey otherwise.

agreed about your other post that you included...people don't even know what the hell they're talking about anymore when they are referencing "Moneyball". heck, at this point, i'm guessing that Beane is probably getting a huge kick out of it and its "spawns" like Morey. the A's were good for a few years at a minuscule payroll not because of their position players (which were obtained through his "groundbreaking" analysis), but because they caught lightning in a bottle with 3 young, stud pitchers (mulder, zito, hudson) all at the same time. the A's have had little to no success following their departures, and Beane has now given in to the point of offering players with Coors-inflated stats bad contracts to try and compete again.

 

Actually, Oakland's decline wasn't really caused by a flaw in Beane's Moneyball system. Pretty much the opposite happened, it was caused by all the other teams watching Beane and adopting his principles. In the beginning Beane's methods were unique, but eventually the rest of the league realized the importance of OPS, and the relative unimportance of so-called 'little things' or 'intangibles' like defense, stealing, bunting, putting the ball in play, not striking out, etc. When that happened, the A's could no longer stock up on the John Jaha's and Matt Stairs' of the world for pennies on the dollar, and their financial woes caught up with them.

 

The main difference between basketball and baseball, as pointed out by more than a few here and by Michael Lewis' article on Battier and Morey, is that the "moneyball" formula was fairly easy to figure out and duplicate in baseball but the proprietary methods used in basketball are, for the most part, kept away from the public.

Billy Beane didn't develop the ideas he used, OPS/OBP, etc. were being publicly discussed among the baseball stats types when Beane put them in practice. According to Lewis, the Rockets developed the methods they use, and have largely kept them secret. Morey does talk about advanced stats, but only either in generalities, or in terms of stuff people already know (like the +/- type stuff). Of course, a team's ability to keep an "edge" over others once it develops a better valuation system in basketball is aided by the fact that the basketball game is much more interactive and fluid than baseball.


Another thing I find to be an interesting contrast between the sports is that defense and "little things" matter much less in baseball than it does in basketball. Much of the job of "run prevention" in baseball falls on the shoulders of the pitcher. The defensive ability of, say, the left fielder matter very little once we have a minimal level of competence. In hoops, you don't have anyone with an overwhelmign effect of the pitcher on the score prevention department. An elite defender at, say, SF, can affect quite a bit more of the opposing team's scoring opportunities than an elite defensive leftfielder can.

 

i never said their decline was caused by a flaw in the Moneyball system, i'm saying that the perceived notion that their moderate success for those few seasons was attributed to his system is erroneous. good pitching is all that ever mattered. much like how, in basketball, morey can do all the tinkering and cutesy little "i'm smarter than everybody else, that's why we made this move" transactions until his heart is content...if your goal is to win championships, having superstars is all that matters. the battiers, chuck hayeses, and kyle lowrys are, in essence, roster fillers. the only reason i'd credit morey with being a "genius" is because of how many dolts he has brainwashed into believing that battier and his like ilk are vital pieces of the pie.

 

Moneyball provides what every GM wants to do but doesn't know how to do. Through statiscal models and analysis Morey is able to find guys that are making or get signed for LESS THAN market value. Moneyball has nothing to do with being cheap or paying the minimum salary to each player. Morey found Battier a guy making average salary 5 Mil when his production and market value is far higher than that. Same with Landry who with some health and a few inches would have been a top 5 lottery pick for certain. Brooks looks like the best PG of his draft class. Our 2009 Playoffs are testament to Moneyball where $40 million of our payroll was in street clothes on the bench and our team of $35 mil pushed the champions to decisive game 7 when no else could including Denver (75 mil) Utah (73 mil) and Orlando (68 mil). That is Moneyball and will be in full display when T-Mac and his whopping 23 million become available for Morey to use as he wishes.

List of players acquired by Morey: (2009-2010 Salary)

Battier - 6.8 mil
Ariza - 5.8
Scola - 3.3 mil
Landry - 3 mil
Brooks - 1.1 mil
Lowry - 2 mil

Thats 4 quality starters and 2 good bench players, all for 22 mil. Some teams pay that much for maybe two starters. (Chicago: Gordon-Villanueva)

This is what makes Morey so good as Moneyball GM, he can fill an entire roster with good players with very little money.

 

uhh...once again, to quote the great Bob Sacamano, about 5 posts ago:
'Taking opportunities to get talent that is undervalued on the basketball court' is not some unique philosophy. It's basically a general manager's job description. You think GM's were going after overvalued talent, and then Morey came along with this revolutionary idea to go after undervalued talent instead? '

also, just because morey fills the roster with what he and (therefore) you believe to be "undervalued" players, does that automatically translate into players who give us the best chance to win? do you think 12 shane battier clones paid at league minimum would be anything above the 30th best team in the NBA?

 

to throw my two cents into this circus...

I hate the term moneyball and I bet morey does as well.

Yes finding under-valued talent and maximizing payroll is every gm's job.

Morey and his team feel that their analytical and statiscal process gives them an edge in doing so.

The only difference between Morey's strategy and a "traditional" gm's, is that Morey incorporates proprietary statistical analysis to supplement naked eye and traditional analysis.

This is only an edge so long as the analytic's a) prove to be sound over time, and b) remain proprietary and solely the use of the Rockets.

Given a tight payroll anchored by two lofty contracts, the initial displays of this model have been constricted to low risk, low cost players. The near future will put this model to the full test as payroll flexiblity is increased and the need/ability to add higher impact players becomes a reality.

I for one, think he will be a success as his hits significantly outweigh his misses. However, as many only consider a championship a success, chances are, posters such as gater will long point to his misses as a reason for 'Moneyball' failure regardless of the fact that only one team a year will win it all.

Given that he has not abandoned traditional scouting for the means of

 

While there is much truth to this quote, if it were that easy wouldn't every team be doing it? Obviously teams like Minny, the Clips, Memphis, the Bucks have not been successful for a reason. They all have the same opportunity as Morey to trade for the guys he has aquired. While we are trying to take credit away from him you can't help but notice that his moves have worked in our/his favor. As the poster above me mentioned its the idea of putting the statistical spin on this "undervalued talent" to find players that are true assets to the team.