I knew you were going to get to this just as i knew many would gloss over the fact of why the to's are more. Anyone thathas played ball know that a faster pace doesn't mean more turnovers. There is more chance of a to in a half court set because there is generally more people in space and more chances for people to get their hands on the ball. Not to mention the defense isn't set,lockdown, and focused on eliminating what you're trying to do as a team. Go and check the francis led teams in terms of to's and compare them to this years version. Its not a accident that tracy helped bigtime in this category with his ballhandling.
True. However, 17th and 21st reallyl aren't that different. The 17th ranked Rockets were right at the league average this season and the 21st ranked Rockets was only .003 away from last year's league average. .003 is 3 more turnovers per 1000 possession. Given that the Rockets averaged 90.2 possession last year, that .003 difference basically amounts to 1 more TO every 4 games.
Rather than just look at turnovers per game, a better measure (IMO) is looking at standardized turnovers per possession. This basically means how many standard deviations under league average a team is in their turnovers committed per possession. It accomplishes two things: accounts for difference in pace, and also rates teams relative to the league. As a general guide, 2+ is amazingly good, 1 to 2 is very good, 0.5 to 1 is good, -0.5 to 0.5 is various degrees of "meh", -0.5 to 1 is bad, -1 to -2 is very bad, less than -2 is god awful. BTW, it is not a coincidence that the 3 seasons where McGrady has missed the most games with injuries coincide with the Rockets being below average in limiting turnovers. Just saying.
interesting, those numbers have a weak correlation with the Rockets' record. The season where we were -0.788 standard deviations from the league norm, we were 34-48. All the other seasons we had +50 wins (ranging from 51 to 55 wins..). So basically, if we aren't too terrible with turnovers, we have a good chance of being in the playoffs. Funny how stats state the most obvious things sometimes
And I accidentally flubbed my calculations a bit there though the results are basically the same. I fixed it and added a few more seasons as per leebigez's request: First few seasons with Yao, before McGrady's addition, turnovers was an issue. 2003/04 was especially brutal. The Francis trade may have slowed JVG's hair-loss a bit.
No, I am not talking about what he is saying, but rather that he said Tmac is not his guy, when he has been in tons of threads doing nothing but proving otherwise. It's ok....I do the same. DD
He's not my guy but i unlike you see the diference in the game when he's on the court vs not. Not using durvasas stats, here is what i noticed on the rebuild. We drafted francis and crew to transition from dream and although they were suppose to be uptempo, they really weren't by the numbers. Also, that crew lost alot of close bal games late in games because francis,cat and whomever else would turn the ball over. The trade is made involving tracy and the rockets won alot of those games they were losing the year prior. Why? because for all his faults, tracy is a great decision maker. The very next year with mcgrady having back issues, yao is having a monster year, but the team cant wan close games? Why? Because the guy making close in game decisions is on the sidelines. The next year, same story but macgrady and yao are in, but when tracy is out, the rockets cant win close games again. He comes back, yao goes out and the team starts to win some or most of the close games again. Whether you like him or not or agree with me or not, a faster pace shouldn't equal more turnovers, but when the decision makers aren't used to making good decisions with the ball, it doesn't matter what tempo you play. In close ball games, ball security is just as important as shot making, but the worse thing that can happen is a to. A bad shot at least has a chance for a rebound vs a to going the other way. I and everyone else know you cant think clearly when dealing with anything related to tracy. Thats not a opinion, thats a fact, but we can discuss it like any other thing we do on this board.
No. It's not solely because of Brooks and Ariza. It is because our offense is now ultra-high tempo compared to last year. More possessions = more chance for turnovers.
