Turnover distribution of this team vs. championship teams

lars8...that math right there is breaking principles of statistics.

You cannot offset a individual net component of our regressions like Pts off of TOs by using the Total Team ORtg.

I can explain this in Finance, too. A CEO who is looking to explain a significant drop in Net Revenue (our -4.2 Net Pt Differential), will not constantly point to a slight increase in Sales (year-over-year .8 ORtg) to wash away every financial indicator showing the Costs of those Sales (one being Pts off of TOs). He'd get fired if he tried to say a .8 increase in Total Sales can offset every bad indicator, if he just compares them one at a time.

I'll just leave by repeating one more thing: A one-possession increase in Pace is not causing the more pts off a TOs, the pts off of TOs is increasing the Pace of the game. That's what happens when you can't or don't get back because of your offense. The defenders score faster.

 

Lol yea, turning the ball over .6 more times per 100 possessions is causing him to produce 4 less points per 100 possessions.

The turnovers actually account for about .5 of the drop from year to year. But that's fine, keep lying to confirm your bias.

 

You're wrong as usual. Going from 4 turnovers to 4.6 is a big jump, a 15% increase.

His TOV% went to 16.2 from 14.9, also big and a 10% increase.

That's the main reason for his decrease because his ts% is only slightly lower, and his rebounding and assists are up. There isn't anything else that would explain the drop in ORtg

But I see you don't offer an explanation for his big drop in ORtg. You defend Hardens turnovers by citing the TEAM ORtg but ignore his individual ortg. How dumb is that?

 

^^^And when he uses Team Ortg, he breaks principles of statistics.

It's like he saying to himself, "well these two numbers look alike; I'm going to subtract one from the other"

I mean, all he has to do is say turnovers is something to work on; instead he's all about protecting Harden,

Then claims he doesn't have a narrative, everyone else does.

 

Just wanted to say that I didn't know school is open on weekends. larsv8 being schooled.

Good for him. He lacks basketball knowledge and has a lot to learn regarding the Rockets

 

We aren't using team Ortg, we are using Harden's ortg, for this particular back and forth. You are not following the discussion correctly.

 

Two of the most knowledgable posters on this board, this is why CF is great folks.

 

Count me as one of those who believes that Harden's turnovers are low on the list of this team's problems.

Going from 8th to 22nd on defense is way up there. I will put a lot of blame for that on Harden though - if your #1 guy has no commitment to defense, it infects the entire team.

Not addressing the PF spot for several years now is also way up there.

Zeroing in on turnovers is a little odd to me.

 

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that higher turnovers is going to lead to easier points for the opponent; i.e. worse defense for us though.

When that's compounded by your star player (the guy committing most of the turnovers) not playing defense either, the whole situation is a disaster.

 

Yes that is 15% of a small number but it's still just over 1 additional turnover over every 2 games. You can try and make it sound as bad as possible but half a turnover per game isn't a major issue.

Here we go again. This is at least the third time that you've quoted this estimate as a stat rather than using the actual statistic that I pointed you to on the NBA site.

Why do you keep using an estimated number that you know is inaccurate when the actual number is readily available on the NBA site? Because it makes Harden look worse?

One more time. TOV% is an estimated umber because Basketball-reference doesn't have the actual possession numbers. The NBA site publishes TOV Ratio which is the actual number of turnovers a player commits per 100 possessions.

Harden's actual number of turnovers per 100 possessions is 12.8 not the 16.2 that you keep quoting. Likewise his actual turnovers per 100 possessions per 100 of his possessions last year was 11.8.

So again we are taking about an additional half a turnover per game.

Do you really believe that an extra half a turnover per game is one of the main reason that we've fallen off so much this season?

 

after finishing a game yesterday, on the way back home i was really pondering how james gets ripped so often around the top of the arc. is he just careless? not getting low enough and dribbling in front instead of to the side of his body? i can't remember the last time i got ripped even once the way he does regularly. ya ya i'm not going against nba defenders, but i also don't have nba elbows to protect my dribble!

 

Here. we. go. again.

No, it doesn't make Harden look worse, because EVERYONE'S TOV% percentage tends to be higher because it's a different formula.

BREF's formula- TOV%
Turnover Percentage (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); the formula is 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV). Turnover percentage is an estimate of turnovers per 100 plays.

NBA.com's- " TO: Turnover Ratio - the percentage of a player's possessions that end in a turnover. Turnover Ratio = (Turnover x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers] "


It doesn't matter which one you use, but people use TOV% more because it doesn't inexplicably add in assists. If you don't like it, take it up with BREF.

And for the 11th time, it doesn't matter which one you use because the point is the increase from last year. Both show an almost 10% increase in turnover ratio or %. Yes, a 15% increase in raw turnovers does make a difference as evidenced by his ORTG decline to 114, his worst since he was a rookie. This isn't even counting the composition of turnovers, which are a lot more live ball turnovers this year.

Harden is also posting some of his worst plus/minus numbers and turnovers is where he has posted his largest difference in offense from last year. So yes they matter.

I know saying "the number looks small therefore it's not relevelant" SOUNDS smart and the pinnacle of analytical analysis, but really it isn't.

 

It's clear (to me anyway) that the extra weight is slowing him down and he's not getting separation as easily.

You can see this further by the fact that he's only taking 24.4% of shots at 0-3 feet, easily the lowest of his career. Last year it was 31% and his career average is 29.2%

That shows that he's not blowing by his man like he normally has throughout his career.

Another stat that shows his lack of explosion- only 13 dunks this year. Had 33 last year and 25 as a rookie when he only played 23 mpg.