He might have a hard time turning down 8/190 or something like that but yeah- I think your numbers are pretty spot on.
Of every player in the Astros organization right now. If you had to put your own money down, who is most likely to get 40 WAR in the next 10 years? It has to be Tucker doesn't it?
7.5 was a 2m over reach and though I think the Astros 5.0 was a half million low it is much closer to actual value and should win out in arbitration. I would hold that offer open till the regular season begins and start again next winter if he remains unsigned. adjusting for how his year goes and what is coming up in the minors
I agree that his true 1st year arb value is in between. And likely $5M is closer than $7.5M But he has had 5+ WAR full every season ( 2020 projects to 5.1 if full season was played). I only see downside to playing hardball with him. He is as safe a bet as there is to keep performing at a high level. No injury concerns Already all star level floor at age 25 Rounded skillset valuable even if falls in one skill They should not risk any bad blood over $2.5M if they want any chance of extending him.
I see no reason to believe that the Astros suddenly change their thinking on long deals. More than 6 years is far too long based on what we know. Tucker is a very good player but as we learned with Correa any player can be replaced and all of them will be eventually.
The parameters for arbitration are already set. It is not like they are trying to rough him up. The arbiter will choose one or the other of 5m or 7.5m, which ever is closer to their ideal number. Additionally it is not about $2.5m it is about a baseline for two additional arbitration cycles. The cost in the long run is much higher. Last of all if the team can not get a substantial discount for guaranteeing a players income there is no point in extending that player. That leaves both parties to take their chances with the future. Less than ideal for either.
I think your view is not the ONLY one. The Astros have become very successful at filling spots with a "next man up" and "No one is bigger or more important than the team" mentality. That said there is a lack of humanity in the approach which continues to fan the flame of hate around baseball. The team takes advantage of cheap talent and throws the players away in favor of newer and cheaper players when they finally get service time and a chance to make money equivalent to their peers. How fans have bought in to that parasitic philosophy when our favorite players have to keep moving on is beyond me. I love watching the Astros win but hate that they use players when they are cheap and then refuse to pay market price to keep them ( and thank them). After Altuve, I don't know if we will ever see another star player stay in Houston for his entire career.
I’m hated on this board by many for espousing this viewpoint. It’s funny- I’m a conservative, I’m a business owner and yet I can also absolutely empathize with the plight of labor even if they are making 600k while being woefully underpaid (or 6M for that matter). But the vast majority of fanbase roots against their guys ever getting theirs.
I am not anxious to get into what kind of evil promulgates hate. Suffice it to say it has nothing to do with base ball. Please take note, you do not end hate by succumbing to it. You have to stand up to it to defeat it.
But I think Tucker plays 10 seasons. I wasn't talking about who produces FOR THE ASTROS. My point was who will be the most productive player for 10 more years regardless of where they play to point out who is worth an extension.
My bet is probably on Tucker because the positional adjustment will get Yordan. Looking back at numbers 10 years down the road my bet would be on Yordan over Tucker but Rucker has the higher floor due to health and defense to your point.
If Tucker hits the market in 3 years how much do yall think he actually makes assuming he averages .275/.340/.525 over 3 years?
Judge just got 9 @ $40M per and 2 yrs older that Kyle will be. I'm not saying Tucker is as good as Judge but it I bet in 3 years his numbers will be very very close. If Kyle averages that the next 3 seasons there is no way he gets less than 8 @$30M 10 yrs and/or $35M per are possible.
You realize that. 1) Kyle Tucker outperforms Conforto in every single category in that comparison right? 2) we are talking about Kyle Tucker now ( that stat comparison) PLUS 3 additional all star level seasons right? Try again
