I saw a poll today that something like 70+% of Trump supporters think that Whites are discriminated against. I'd guess that most people that voted for Trump will continue to support him later this week when the new polls come in. That being said, even moving down from 36 to 34 or 33% is a really really big deal at this point because as the sample size grows smaller in Trump world, the percentage of loss becomes more impactful. I've said it before that the only way he goes below 30% is if he somehow finds a way to fracture the White Christian community, or somehow does a 180 and becomes a shining light for diversity and a civil rights champion president and in turn loses his white nationalist base. Being racist didn't cause Christians to break from him during the campaign so I don't think it will do it now so I don't know what kind of moral corruption he'll have to show to lose that half of his base. And I sure as hell don't see him doing a 180 on race anytime soon so I don't think he's losing the White Nationalists. I think mid 30's is probably where he stays the remainder of his presidency, and wouldn't be surprised if he makes it back to 40% at some point because there are just too many traditional white conservatives in this country that look for any reason to "come home" to the GOP. Say what you want about Trump but his one skill he's good at is exhausting and outlasting everyone. He'll keep chugging along and everyone will move on to something else, and forget about the time he professed his love of Nazis. Also look out for the War bump. Trump will get us into a war situation I can guarantee you that much. Its coming, and they've been hinting at it with North Korea for a few weeks now. All this being said... I know it looks like the beginning of the end here, but I won't be surprised if Trump survives this, and we only see marginal decreases in his approval ratings this week.
Yes, I think his approval rate can not be lower than 30%. If he could figure out to start a war with North Korea, then his approval rate could go up to 80 to 90%. Recall that both Bush got around 90% approval rates during the wars with Iraq, but just for a short period of time, but still anything could happened in this country.
He'll never be above 50% again, he's alienated way too many people to ever reach majority approval. I'm pretty sure Bush's approval rating was 90% right after 9/11 but that was a completely different time and set of circumstances.
Trump approval at 80-90% is impossible at this point. Bush didn't burn every bridge he came across before going to war.
You have no idea. If there is war with North Korea and they severely damage Seoul with great loss of life, Trump (and the USA) will be blamed and permanently tarnished in the world's eyes. The condemnation would be scathing and unanimous. This is about the only thing that could take his approval lower. If he somehow gets lucky and the Kim regime falls without burning Seoul, he could get a huge boost.
Even if there is no war, if the economy tanks in any way, Trump's approval rating will collapse into the low 20s. He's damn lucky the economy is doing ok right now but you can't bank on that forever.
Sure enough. If Trump remains president and the economy turns south for the November 2018 midterms, Republicans are in real trouble.
Housing is a grotesque mess in large cities across the Pacific Coast and NY. I don't think it's a bubble (more of a drastic shortage in available houses with banks and foreign investors pulling in demand), but this will eventually cause civil unrest if the homeless situation deepens as rents show no signs of flattening.
And all this time I thought that's what was said in Texas. As for the war theory, I've been saying for a while now that it is a fear I have. That fear is driven by the real possibility that trump will think that a war would cause Americans to change the negative opinion indisputably held by a majority in this country. The "rally around the flag" effect. It would be a disaster and as a political tactic wouldn't work, in my opinion, but dictators, strongmen, and wannabe strongmen like trump far to often think that it will. trump is mad enough (mad as in crazy) to try anything to improve his standing in the country. Anything. Reality, consequences? They hold little value for him. He is a poorly educated man-child capable of anything.
