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[TrueHoop] Analytics guys say Harden is MVP

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by kevC, Mar 15, 2017.

  1. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Good. The people who love Harden don't deserve votes. They don't understand the triple double phenomenon.
     
  2. Daddy Long Legs

    Daddy Long Legs H- Town Harden

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    You are arguing against a point that I never made.

    When did I say his stats are empty?

    My claim was that the novelty of a triple double is not inherently superior to a statline without a triple double, like a 37, 13, 6 statline
     
  3. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    I feel like Harden has a ton of support with the actual voters, they're just not on TV all the time or constantly singing his praises like the Westbrook guys are.
     
  4. Richie_Rich

    Richie_Rich Member

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    This is an overly simplistic take. Since Durant's departure it has become obvious that OKC's system and team identity is WESTBROOK. If the Rockets live and die by the three (as many here suggest), then OKC lives or dies by Westbrook. That's by design.

    His ball dominance and usage % are at historic porportions. Compounding the problem is Westbrook below average efficiency and hero-ball mentality -- especially in the fourth quarters of close games.

    Durant didn't just leave Westbrook and OKC; he left with deep resentment.

    There's a reason for that.
     
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  5. DonKnock

    DonKnock Member

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    You do know that BPM isn't a net of the score when a player is on the court right? It actually has nothing to do with the other team's scoring while that player is on the court.

    BPM is a very convoluted estimation of production that skews highly towards rebounds...

    Raw BPM = a*ReMPG + b*ORB% + c*DRB% + d*STL% + e*BLK% + f*AST% - g*USG%*TO% +
    h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%) + i*AST% + j*(3PAr - Lg3PAr) - k] + l*sqrt(AST%*TRB%)


    Steal%
    Harden: 2.0%
    Westbrook: 2.3%

    Block%
    Harden: 1.0%
    Westbrook: 0.9%

    Ast%
    Harden: 50.9%
    Westbrook: 56.5%

    Off Reb%
    Harden: 11.9%
    Westbrook: 16.8%

    Def Reb%
    Harden: 20.5%
    Westbrook: 27.9%

    Westbrook's teammates have been instructed by Donovan to give up rebounds to Westbrook so that he can run the break!!(This has been documented, not speculation) Westbrook's rebounding efficiency is through the damn roof because his teammates are intentionally pulling off rebounds for him!! Not only is Westbrook getting rewarded for rebounds by % of team, he's getting doubly rewarded for his artificially inflated success rate! (~10.4 uncontested rebounds/game)

    BUT WAIT, THERE'S MORE!!!

    As if rebounding hasn't been factored in enough, let's chuck it in there one more time!!!

    l*sqrt(AST%*TRB%)


    If you want to take Westbrook over Harden, fine.


    But please get the F@#$% off my computer screen bringing in some damn Box Plus Minus as the determining factor:mad:
     
  6. Fyreball

    Fyreball Member

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    Chamillionaire, DonKnock and BigMaloe like this.
  7. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    This article has the best response to all the arguments in favor of Westbrook.

    https://theringer.com/the-russell-westbrook-problem-54e59db48117#.25m9veuc1

    Notably, Simmons addresses the idea that WB's teammates are trash and get much worse when he's not on the court. Basically, it's like the guy in a pickup game that takes all the possessions: when he passes Oladipo the ball, he shoots it immediately or takes a bad drive to the hoop because he's so not used to getting the ball and doesn't know when he'll get it again. Opponents can key in on Oladipo because they know there's <10% chance that he'll pass the ball. Ditto with the shooters once WB passes them the ball. It's such a rarity, and they want so much to get WB the assist that they end up chucking up bad shots and are out of rhythm doing it. It's the clip where Will Ferrell says, "Here comes some corn!"

    Westbrook makes his teammates worse. Harden makes them better. Our supporting casts aren't that much different: ESPN "unbiased" projection system had the Rockets slated for another 41-41 season just before the season started, whereas OKC was predicted to go 44-38:

    http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/17131591/2016-summer-forecast-west-standings

    Stupid stats are stupid.
     
  8. Surfguy

    Surfguy Member

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    I asked Arnold Schwarzenegger what he thought and he told me this (I swear):

     
  9. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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  10. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    need a link
     
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  11. RockWest

    RockWest Member

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    Or OKC are more likely to win against weak sub 50:50 teams, and Westbrook also more likely to get triple double against weak teams? OKC didn't lose bc no triple double, they lose to better teams.
     
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  12. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Old Media is skeptical of analytics, valuing instead the "old jocks & smelly socks" genre of NBA-on-TNT analysis.

    This is obviously some fresh meat for the haters, meant to inspire a backlash pile-on from the Jock lobby.

    Conclusion: False Flag

    Media Conspiracy: LOGGED
    MeM
     
  13. Daddy Long Legs

    Daddy Long Legs H- Town Harden

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    This dude has been getting refuted left and right on this thread. He has gone MIA.

    He better write an argumentative piece titled "paging harden supporters" in order to save face and defend his position lol
     
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  14. zcarenow

    zcarenow Member

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    best way to know who is ahead right now. Just tweet all the sportswriters who actually are voting for MVP. All the true stats and analytics won't mean a thing at the end of the day.
     
  15. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    Thats not saying much when OKC is 8th seed, they barely win over half their games in the first place so the fact that they lose 20% of games if WB has a triple double is actually a big deal, those are the games his ball hog tendencies are so horrible he probably shot like 12/40. OKC has enough talent to be 4-5th seed, the main reason they are 8th is because Westbrick is dragging them down.

    Even if I wasn't a rocket fan I would say Harden should be the MVP over Westbrick. Unless I was an OKC fan, in which case I would be biased.
     
  16. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Member
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    [​IMG]
    h/t @FTW Rockets FTW
     
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