You can always find a model that shows a worse case scenario, and that's the one the media and fear mongers will always focus on.
Invest 90 now has a closed circulation and looks likely to develop. The best computer models have it on the upper Texas to upper La. coasts. My guess is that it will become a TS or no more than a category 1 hurricane. It still might not develop at all, but I doubt that is the case. Looks healthy on satellite imagery and is approaching favorible conditions. We so desperately need the rain, I hope it comes our way.
Where are you getting that? I'm looking at this right now, and it's showing only one model that takes it anywhere east of Corpus...and that model has it in LA.
Finally some better agreement by the models in this run, between Corpus and Galveston. Rita and Ike were aimed around this area several days out and the forecast kept inching north.
holy crap, that picture changed since i posted it AFTER 2 pm!!! GFDL would provide for a pretty wet weekend in Houston.
Yep, the link stays the same but the photo changes. From what I've noticed since tracking hurricanes since 2005, GFS has been the best model. Unfortunately, it is also the conservative model. It won't predict long term as other models.
that i've noticed...and when i posted it (at 2:13), it said it was for the 2 pm update...but the spaghetti models were different than where they were 10 minutes later.
Models are changing rapidly, now most are coming together south of Houston, but not too far south. I expect much more shifting in the next day or two. But an earlier GFDL had it on the La coast.
Tropical Storm Don forms in southern Gulf, moving toward Texas http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/07/tropical-storm-don-forms-in-southern-gulf-moving-toward-texas/ A reconnaissance aircraft flying into the southern Gulf of Mexico found a closed circulation, leading the National Hurricane Center to declare that Don has officially formed. ...so 60% chance of a hurricane...we better at least get some rain out of this...
TROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER... AND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL STORM DON. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD OCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/ GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. DON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN TEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.
Here we go, lol. Houston weatherman's wet dream, SCARE EVERYONE! We're not even in the cone on the NHC's map, but these things do tend to turn right of the COU a lot. Who knows, I just want some friggin' rain and a day or two of non 100 degree temps. We need a drought buster.
