We don't need a hurricane for rain. I'm fine with rain...not fine with hurricanes. They cost lives and billions of dollars and are a colossal pain in the ass. That's not even touching on the BP cluster and where that could lead. Not interested. Stay away. Interesting, because Masters' blog was trumpeting the European models as being most accurate with respect to this storm so far. Very little consensus in these models now....aside from a general shift to the north for a few. 4 out of 6 have this thing going in south of the border, still, though. We'll see.
Yeah things are really getting interesting. Check out this post that Dr. Masters made in the comments section. 425. JeffMasters (Admin) 8:33 PM GMT on June 27, 2010 Morris Bender of the GFDL group has just provided me the track forecast from an improved experimental version of the GFDL that shows landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Jeff Masters From what I understand some of the models are picking up on a low forming on the northern gulf coast that creates a weakness for Alex to follow. Take a look at the water vapor imagery right now and look at what seems to be forming just to the NE of us. Interesting but need a meteorologist to confirm this. I could be totally wrong with what I see.
The National Hurricane Center didn't change its forecast much at the 4 pm update....just jogged it up the Mexican coast a bit. But these guys have zero confidence in their forecast because of the wide spread of the models at this point. Read the bolded part, below :grin: 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272035 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. NEAR THE CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE. THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF... ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.2N 90.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.9N 91.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 92.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 22.3N 94.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 23.2N 96.3W 80 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 24.0N 98.5W 55 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
Man this sucks. I hope it does not take the northern turn... I guess we will see what happens by tomorow..
That was an upper level low I was looking at. Here's some good info from the NWS. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 425 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010 .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEP LAYER RIDGE FROM THE SFC THROUGH H5 ACROSS THE SE CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER SE TX AT H3. AREA OF 60M HEIGHT FALLS NOTED AT H5 ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH 30M HEIGHT FALLS DOWN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A FORE-BEARER OF THE IMPENDING ERN CONUS TROF. 10-20M HEIGHT FALLS NOTED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AT ALL SIGNIFICANT LEVELS...INDICATIVE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE.
We really do need the rain..... but err.. if it comes this way.. the waters are so hot that it'll be a Cat 2.
I don't know how closely you guys follow these but its very interesting. As some of you know the more powerful a system is the more it tends to bend to the right. Generally that is. Last night it was intensifying at a pretty good rate ahead of projections and curving north ahead of NHC projections. It made it about halfway across the Yucatan with the core still relatively strong then started collapsing at a high rate. Then further movement was to the left of NHC projections. It has now made it back into the open waters and based on recon seems to be reorganizing pretty quickly. It now appears to be heading northwest. I think we really need to pay attention to this one. That upper level low and unusually strong trough for this time of year are real wildcards. We'll know more in the next day but it would not be a bad idea to think about preparing.
As many know here, I'm a WU nerd, and follow Jeff Masters Blog religiously during every storm season, and I love reading Jeff here on the forums. I prepared early, even though I'm on a hospital grid and will get power back fast. I had power the day off Ike around 10pm. Batteries, 6 cases of bottled water, propane, two digital portable TV's, canned goods, laptop batteries ready to roll and I also still have 2 cases of MRE's from Ike. I have inventory on Friday at work, so I would be down with a tropical storm to keep us at home and water the yard, but if it's a hurricane I'm well prepared. I love mother nature, but I could be down with another 25 year break from a Hurricane. I loved being out in Ike to feel what it brought during the eye, but hated seeing what other Houstonians went through weeks after.
Storm is looking like it could be pretty big, which would be similar to Ike. Interested to see how much of that convection NE of the center (already near the oil spill) will become part of Alex as it moves away from the Yucatan.
Sure am glad I finally took the plunge, dug into my retirement, and took the plunge buying that west end Galveston beach home.
Just imagine... if it comes to the "good ol' US of A", you'll end up greasy hair with OIL from the spill. The LORD wouldn't want to see that much comedy at all, sir. No way He does.
Wow, how things can change... Still going to wait for tomorow's updates...I think there it too much uncertainty still...
Yeah, just need one more day to narrow down to where Alex is going...still too many variables. One thing for sure, it's time to update the preparations. I don't have any bottled water, enough canned food and a working flashlight. Flashback of IKE caused me some stress because it was miserable after the storm due to the heat. It's so hot right now! Some rain will be good but no hurricanes, please especially it's projected to be a cat 2. Here is a blog. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/StormW/show.html
If I remember correctly, there was a NICE cold front that came in after that heat. Man, that was niiiiice :grin:
