This is suppose to be an active season but hopefully a lot of early season minor storms can cool off the waters a bit and prevent a more powerful one later. but no matter what, it can't be good for the oil spill. if this storm does curve north, all those berns they built will be wiped out and so will the cap on the leak.
Why are so many people so sarcastic about possible hurricanes anyways? I though the subject of hurricanes would be pretty sensitive for most Houstonian's
Imagine if a Hurricane came and just stir up that oil/water in the gulf and just smack it everywhere onto Galveston/Houston.
I wonder this every year this thread is started. I come to the thread sometimes for updates, for Jeff's knowledge aNd to sometimes post updates from WU, not read the "evacuate from SA" lame ass comments.
Most of the computer models are showing this thing heading towards Mexico but then there is the GFDL... It's still early. once it crosses the Yucatan we will see. Btw, saw this on another board and thought it was funny as hell. Shows you what the model spread looks like right now.
And the Atlantic Hurricane season is underway. Meet Alex. WTNT41 KNHC 260847 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN- CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT... ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
It depends on the area and, frankly, torrential rains aren't great during a drought. The end result is often flooding and mudslides - again depending on the region. The models on Alex have been bending southward for a couple days. He just wasn't organized soon enough to get caught up in that trough of low pressure to the north. Interestingly and much like last year, the most consistent model has been the European (ECMWF). It still isn't represented on most maps, but it is one of the dynamic models and has been one of the best over the past few seasons. Speaking of this, I really wish places would follow Wunderground's lead and remove all but the dynamic and NHCC models from their tracking maps. Things like the BAM and other historical models just seem to confuse people and the same questions get asked every year.
Allison was not only one of the most destructive storms ever for Houston (worse than Ike and Alicia though probably not as destructive as Carla), it was one of the earliest storms of significance to hit anywhere along the Gulf Coast. We only average about one named storm every 2 years in the month of June. That storm hit on June 4 - EXTREMELY early. Alex is far more typical of June storms - forms in the Caribbean in the last week of June.
Not officially. We are still like 5" below our normal rainfall amounts so far. We have started to get some scattered rain around over the past couple of weeks, but we need a consistent several days to get us back up to where we normally are this time of year.
Sure, but here in this area as well as some areas around town that I know.... they desperately need rainfall. I wouldn't want to be in a drought again.
