Like I said, I wasn't trying to be rude. I have seen about 25 mentions of "evacuating katy" since they announced there was a storm off the coast of Africa on Chron/CF. At some point enough has to be enough, right?? Or do you still laugh every time you hear the "why did the chicken cross the road" joke??
jokes on you chump...I didnt say evacuate katy...it was the med center. i'm not trying to be rude, but put your big girl panties on and lighten up.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html A low pressure system about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, Invest 92L, was near tropical depression status early this morning, but is currently weakening. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased markedly in the past few hours, with the cloud top temperatures warming noticeably, indicating that 92L's thunderstorms are no longer pushing as high into the atmosphere. Water vapor satellite loops show that the storm is surrounded on all sides by dry air, though there is a region of moister air in front of it that 92L will encounter on Thursday. Wind shear as diagnosed by the University of Wisconsin is near 20 knots, though the SHIPS model is diagnosing the shear at a higher 25 - 30 knots. This high shear is pushing 92L's heavy thunderstorm activity to the east side of the center of circulation, and the center will probably become exposed to view late this morning. Had 92L been able to maintain the heavy thunderstorm activity it had early this morning for 12 or so hours, it could have been classified as a tropical depression. However, classification as a TD requires persistent heavy thunderstorm activity, typically interpreted to mean 12 hours of consistent heavy thunderstorm activity, and 92L did not meet that criterion. Wind shear is the main story in the forecast for 92L, as a band of very high wind shear of 20 - 50 knots lies to the northwest of the storm. The current expected track of 92L carries it into this band of high wind shear, and the SHIPS model (based on the GFS model) is predicting that the shear will remain in the 25 - 30 knot range through Friday. Other models predict higher shear levels. It is likely that the high shear, combined with the dry air surrounding the storm, will destroy 92L by Friday. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a low (10% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, and this is a reasonable forecast. It is likely that 92L will bring heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 35 mph on Friday to the Lesser Antilles Islands. I don't expect 92L to be organized enough to cause flooding problems to any of the islands in its path. None of our reliable global computer models develop 92L into a tropical depression. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
I have alot of friends in Katy. I think they would find it useful to know if a hurricane was coming their way. Just because one doesn't live inside the Beltway, doesn't mean they are a nobody.
We'll be seeing the blunt of them come July/August. I really thought we would have had one by now considering the reports of this season being very active, though it's only been 16 days.
Very active is a loose term. I understand that it is expected to be very active compared to last year. For this year, we are coming out of an el nino effect so we are more in a neutral state. This means that activity will be average compared to the "high-activity era" that we are in (1995 till present). During a high-activity era, the average number of named storms is 14.5 and the number of hurricanes is 8. The 2010 estimate is 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes. Also keep in mind we are about two-thirds complete with the expected age of a high-activity era. The trend will be downwards. But yes, if you are comparing to all historical data, then this will be above average in terms of activity. Looking at data since 1950, the average hurricane season has 9.6 named storms and 6 hurricanes. Of course, 50 years of hurricane data is still not a lot of data points. But we use what we can get I guess hehe.
Well... I was referring more to the reports of this being a "dangerous" season. One example would be Xenon's video on the first page. But yeah, it's still early. We haven't seen much activity in 2 years.
There is a good blog by Masters on el nino, la nina and neutral years...looks like la nina and neutral years are similar.
Sux that its hurricane season with the BP Oil spill...I always remember Galveston being described as a "catcher's mit" for the gulf... Not sure if any will go that way, but I have to believe any activity will have devistating results, in the gulf and inland...
a co-worker sent me this link... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062200&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation This seems so far fetched. I don't think it would happen though but crazy that it has 5 hurricanes on the map and two hurricanes overlapping each other towards NOLA area.
