http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archi...l_storm_matthew_about_to_form_in_the_car.html Eric, why don't you just admit that it is over for us?
Not exactly worthless but less than ideal right now. Looks like models are picking up on another system not 95L that may impact Florida. NHC's forecast track is rather odd given this.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cg...&dtg=2010092312&prod=prp&tau=126&set=Tropical It's a mess. Who knows whats going to happen with this. Carribean is starting to get active though.
If we can get a cold front through Texas about ever 7 days or so, the storms (if any) will be going to Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, or maybe New Orleans. I think we are largely out of the woods for this season.
We are more than likely already at that point. If we do get a threat it will likely be a Humberto like track.
I heart this report: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Elsewhere in the tropics There are no other threat areas to discuss, and the GFS and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of a new tropical depression forming in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.
Because the Chonic wants page hits, and keeping their readers in a constant state of worry is the best way to keep them coming back. It's despicable.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ Update: Current Year-to-Date analysis of Northern Hemisphere and Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) AND Power Dissipation Index (PDI) has fallen even further than during the previous 3-years. The global inactivity is at 33-year lows and historical where Typhoons form in the Western Pacific. While the North Atlantic has seen 15 tropical storms / hurricanes of various intensity, the Pacific basin as a whole is at historical lows! In the Western North Pacific stretching from Guam to Japan and the Philippines and China, the current ACE value of 48 is the lowest seen since reliable records became available (1945) and is 78% below normal*. The next lowest was an ACE of 78 in 1998. See figure below for visual evidence of the past 40-years of tropical cyclone activity.
There looks to be one last gasp from the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season. If that NHC forecast is correct then its probable that this ends up affecting the northern gulf coast as something. The good thing is that with all the cool weather we've already had the chance of something significant ie. cat 3+ is almost nil. Still something to keep our eyes on.
Would be crazy if this came straight for us. It feels like the hurricane season is already over (though it's technically not).
I know Billingsley of Local 2 said that this is going to head more towards Florida after the cold front comes over Texas later next week, but is there a chance it could just brush us before going East? Some of these computer models right now have it staying near Mexico unlike before where they were all going towards the East.
Wellp... looks like we might get some out bands if the storm is big enough... Time for Katy to start preparing for evacuations.
