while it hasnt been an active hurricane season for the people of the gulf, you are right, it they have come one after one the last couple of weeks. If they were to follow the same path but had been a couple thousand miles west...then it would not have been fun to have dealt with a hurricane once a week.
Potentially dangerous Caribbean disturbance 95L forms A tropical wave (Invest 95L) moving westward at 10 - 15 mph though the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to the islands this morning, and has the potential to develop into a dangerous Caribbean tropical storm or hurricane late this week. The wave brought sustained winds of 30 mph to Barbados this morning, and heavy rain squalls will continue over the Lesser Antilles today. Radar from Curacao and satellite loops show that 95L's thunderstorm activity is disorganized, though increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Wind shear over the Caribbean is very low, less than 5 knots, and is forecast to remain low for the rest of the week. Water temperatures and oceanic heat content in the Caribbean are at their highest levels in recorded history, so there is plenty of fuel for development. NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%. The wave should continue moving westward near 10 - 15 mph through Friday, when it will arrive near the northern coast of Nicaragua. Most of the models show some development of 95L by Thursday or Friday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains to the Netherlands Antilles Islands and north coast of South America on Wednesday and Thursday as passes to the north. Heavy rains may also spread to Southwest Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday. When 95L reaches the Western Caribbean Friday, steering currents will weaken and the storm will slow, potentially bringing life-threatening heavy rains on Friday and Saturday to northern Nicaragua and northern Honduras. If the center of 95L remains over water, the storm could easily develop into a powerful and dangerous hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend. With a strong trough of low pressure expected to dive southwards over the Eastern U.S. and form a "cut-off" upper level low over the Southeast U.S. this weekend, this potential hurricane could get drawn northwards across western Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Equally likely scenarios are that 95L will stay in the Western Caribbean, or that the storm will make landfall over Nicaragua and dissipate on Friday, and never reach the Western Caribbean. It is too early to assign probabilities on which of these three scenarios is the most likely. Elsewhere in the tropics The GFS model predicts a series of three tropical distubances will develop in the Caribbean over the next 1 - 2 weeks. The NOGAPS model predicts a new tropical depression will form off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archi...torm_lisa_forms_but_the_area_to_watch_is.html Something to watch!! For real, this scenario will absolutely suck since we are flying to Cozumel next Thursday.
Most of the models on StormPulse have this thing hitting Central America, probably as a weak TS. Face it, Eric. This season is over. Time to go back to talking about NASA until next summer.
it's awesome when we're talking about the trajectory of systems that MAY develop some other time. and by "awesome" i mean, "totally sweet."
Yes Dr. Masters says GFS is predicting three more systems to develop in the next 1-2 weeks. In the Carribean. This is a very active season.
I agree that its an active season...next named storm will be Matthew which could happen next two days. It better not turn northwest. In other words, it's FALL now!! good bye to dang heat.
For now.... Chances are we don't even get any rain out of it. On the other hand, it could turn into a Catagory 6 hurricane that hits Freeport and kills everyone within a 500-mile radius.
No, it's not! We have a week. http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/caribbean-system-likely-impact_2010-09-22
ok...sooooo... the title of that article is, "Caribbean System Will Likely Impact U.S." And here are the models right below that very article: Ummm....do these guys know where the US is?
