Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days. The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1613
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I am just going to go with Jeff Masters ONLY from now and on... http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archi...activity_may_shift_closer_to_the_gulf_of.html
I'm already there, Lady. I'm sure I'll still check it out, because chron.com is my homepage, and they feature Berger's blogs on the front page. But the pattern from him this season has been kinda disappointing.
this blog entry taken alone isn't the problem...it's been a continual story. "next week is the week houston!! look out!!" over and over again.
what's ironic that readers say that he is not contributing to fear mongering like neil frank and etc but he actually is...maybe he needs hits!
This is the first time he's ever been like this. The tone in his blog has been very different this year for some reason. In years past, he's been the one contradicting the Neil Frank's of the world. This year, it seems he has joined them. Not sure why....maybe the last round of layoffs at the Chronicle scared him into thinking he needs more views of his blog? This paragraph is typical of how he's been all summer: He's basically saying "it looks like Central Mexico is going to get some rain....BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AND HOUSTON COULD GET A CAT 5 HURRICANE!" Very disappointing.
yeah, i agree with you, ima. i think he just needs more views or he truly thinks that way now. i dunno... even ch 13 meteorologists say that invest 92 is not a threat to us...the only thing out of it will be some rain. masters all the way!
1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE WIND CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
I LIVE IN KINGWOOD....WHEN SHOULD I EVACUATE?...SHOULD I WATER MY GRASS THIS WEEKEND?...... da1 = Eric? He seems to have a vested interest in a hurricane hitting Houston.
