http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1578 Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:44 PM GMT on August 16, 2010 The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and the system has enough spin to regenerate into a tropical depression later today or early Tuesday. Latest long range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows that a band of intense but disorganized thunderstorms lies over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and satellite imagery shows that this activity is intensifying and growing more organized. A center of circulation is becoming more defined about 60 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida. Strong upper-level winds out of the northeast are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over ex-TD 5, and this shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms from forming on the northern side of the center of circulation. Thus, I expect that heavy thunderstorms will be slow to develop over land today. By Tuesday, ex-TD 5 should be able to intensify into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm with 40 - 45 mph winds, and heavy rains should spread across the entire Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. All of the models bring ex-TD 5 back ashore over Louisiana on Tuesday, and it is unlikely the storm will get sustained winds stronger than 50 mph. The GFDL model predicts ex-TD 5 will stay below tropical storm strength, while the HWRF predicts a 45-mph tropical storm at landfall on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters will fly into ex-TD 5 this afternoon to see if it has regenerated into a tropical depression. NHC is giving the system a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.
Try this one. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/sat...large&endDate=20100816&endTime=-1&duration=12 All the models are showing LA/MS as landfall and not as anything very significant other than rain. And your right some rain would be nice here. We'll see.
It invites doubt from the general public but I really do think this is good for the models out there. They are scientists and being wrong just means back to the drawing boards. Being proven wrong is not a bad thing most of the time. It's good for us as this year's data will be used to improve the models.
that's a good point and i don't disagree. i'm not suggesting they stop trying. i just think these models are given way too much weight by the media. seriously, this year's predictions were front-page news here, locally.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1579 Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:48 PM GMT on August 17, 2010 The remnants of Tropical Depression Five are no longer a threat, done in by high wind shear and close proximity to land. However, an active period for Atlantic hurricanes is likely for the remainder of August, as the global atmosphere undergoes a major change to the circulation pattern that has dominated Northern Hemisphere weather during July and August. A large trough of low pressure is gathering strength over Europe, and is expected to push eastward. By Thursday, this trough should be able to push away the blocking ridge of high pressure that has given Russia its worst heat wave in history. The shift in circulation has already weakened the large region of sinking air that has brought dry, stable conditions to the tropical Atlantic over the past month. Vertical instability, which was unusually low since late July, has now returned to near normal levels over the tropical Atlantic (Figure 1), though it remains quite low over the rest of the North Atlantic. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promotes hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic were at record highs and upper tropospheric temperatures were several degrees cooler than average in July, enhancing instability, something else must have been going on to reduce instability. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere, due to large-scale sinking over the Atlantic, was responsible for the lack of instability. Now that vertical instability has returned to near normal levels, Atlantic hurricane activity should increase to at least average levels over the next two weeks. This is particularly true since SSTs are at record highs and vertical wind shear is at average to below average levels over the tropical Atlantic. Analysis August 18 historically marks the point where Atlantic hurricane activity makes a major spike upwards (Figure 2.) On average, we can expect to see two named storms and one hurricane during the last half of August. The last half of August usually sees a moistening of the atmosphere off the coast of Africa, as the the African monsoon kicks into high gear. This year is no exception (Figure 3.) The dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has retreated to the north, leaving a moist atmosphere conducive for tropical cyclone development off the coast of Africa. It would not be a surprise to see atmospheric instability increase to above-average levels by early next week as the major atmospheric pattern shift progresses. Will this usher in a hyperactive period of Atlantic hurricane activity next week, with a parade of three or four simultaneous storms strung out across the Atlantic? Probably not, since the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) only marginally favors upward motion over the tropical Atlantic, and is not forecast to change much over the next ten days. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. The bottom line: I expect we will see 2 - 3 named storms in the Atlantic by the end of August, including one hurricane. Where these storms might develop and move is difficult to say. It currently appears that the global shift in circulation will bring near-average steering currents to the Atlantic over the next ten days, with a series of troughs of low pressure capable of recurving hurricanes, moving across the Atlantic. The GFS model is indicating, though, that during the few days of August, these troughs may weaken, making recurvature of hurricanes less likely, and increasing the probability of landfalling storms. The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF currently predict that one or two tropical storms will form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands during the period 4 - 10 days from now. The NOGAPS model is predicting the development of a strong tropical disturbance near the coast of Honduras late this week.
Lady - how ironic that it was wind shear AGAIN that broke up this TD. a factor that wasn't supposed to be significant at all this season and was supposed to be less and less a factor with the more recent updates.
Yeah, it's odd! I've not read anything about it being a major contributor to disintegration of storms at the beginning...i guess it's very hard to predict WS in the beginning, eh? I wonder if it's still going to be a factor now that the global atmosphere is changing... i just hope it won't mess up my Cozumel/Playa Del Carmen trip end of Sept.
That may as well be true. Your guess is prolly as good as any lol. Wunderboy just predicted "An active Atlantic hurricane period coming". Let's hope he's wrong....again!
Tropical Depression 6 has formed way out in the Eastern Atlantic. Models initially had this thing as a fish storm but recent models are showing the troughing in the atlantic NOT picking it up and recurving it. They now show a looong trek WNW as a pretty big hurricane. East coast US needs to be ready for this one. This one is going to be a big deal. Here's the latest Euro 10 days out. Notice the high to the north of the storm. That would mean continued mostly westerly movement toward the US.
I guess that means everyone on the East coast should stay glued to the weather channel to track the hurricane, because that map shows it could potentially strike anywhere, anywhere! Anywhere!
i was going to ask you, xenon, where you saw that because it is looking more like a fish storm or a canada landfall.
Tropical wave off African coast. Something to watch for. If it becomes a hurricane my prediction is that it would strike us September 16, if it hits us.
This is a site that I usually watch for Storm activity. I think you may be incorrect with your predictions. www.stormpulse.com I hope you are!
