There have been some deadly storms that passed close to this area but as of now models are calling this one a fish. Still way way early though.
Yeah, still too early to tell. We are in August so according to the season predictions, we should be seeing a lot of storms from on...
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below. Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average). August 8: Current 7-10 day forecast models see little if any tropical activity on the horizon. Colin and Bonnie both go into the books as a couple of the weakest tropical cyclones on record. No storms were recorded in the Eastern Pacific during July! August and September will have to be record activity for the hurricane forecasts to pan out in the North Atlantic.
you're right. it seems like every factor the long-term models counted on bringing an active season ended up being the exact opposite. these things lose lots of credibility with a season like this. when you predict 2005, Part II and you end up an extremely inactive season, it just looks bad.
The media will do anything to generate revenue, and the hurricane season is milked for all it's worth. And it's despicable.
i'm not talking about the media.... i'm talking about the umpteen-thousand think-tanks that run computer models that all spat out the load of crap that we were headed for arguably the worst hurricane season of the last 100 years. this was taken from one of the earlier posts in this thread: NOAA’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above normal season. The outlook indicates only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. So far, we've had a grand total of THREE named storms. That's three (3), as in three. AKA 3. And even today they're still calling for the development of 12-17 MORE named storms...of which 7-11 will be hurricanes...with 4-6 reaching major hurricane status. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml All that is possible...but holy crap, if it's gonna happen it would have to start happening like...uh...now. Meanwhile, the current short term models (7-10 days) don't project development of a tropical system, according to the link I posted earlier. That takes us to roughly August 18. By this point in 2005, we had 9 named storms already. That was what this season was being compared to. "Historically active" was the expectation from these long-term models. I don't understand this...seriously. I don't understand the value of these long-term models. 2005 was supposed to be less active than 2004...guess what? This year was suppposed to be as active as 2005, and I GUESS that's still possible...but it's looking less and less likely (which I'm really happy about). We all know meterologists can't be perfect..that there are way too many variables to consider to say with 100% certainty anything...including whether it will rain tomorrow. And they've made leaps and bounds improvements in tracking storms. Much better at that than we've ever been. But these long term models are so off to the point of being laughable...it just invites doubt going forward.
From looking at the chart that was posted here a couple of times(La Nino, La Nina and neutral years), maybe it will be really active next summer. Look at 2005, that was a neutral year. We are in La Nina year so that means neutral next year.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1576 The tropics are quiet The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2010/08/post_169.html August 13, 2010 As we enter the heart of hurricane season, it's dead quiet out there We're now nearing the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity, the period of most frenetic activity, which should last for about two months. And yet, when we gaze upon the tropics this morning, we see the following summary from the National Hurricane Center: This is not what one would expect to see in mid-August, especially during a year tipped by seasonal hurricane forecasters to be one of the most active on record. And it's not just today that the tropics are quiet. Consider this summarizing note from ImpactWeather's daily update on Atlantic storm activity: Long range models continue to indicate decreasing wind shear and more favorable conditions for development over the coming weeks, however, we do not see any signs of a significant increase in activity. A few weeks ago I cautioned that it was too early to comment on the accuracy of seasonal forecasts, which generally called for 15 to 18 named storms, for this year. It is no longer too late. So here we go. So far we've had three storms -- a category 2 hurricane with Alex, and two very weak tropical storms with Bonnie and Colin. That's three named storms by August 13, which is exactly what one would expect at this point during a normal hurricane season with 10 or 11 named storms. That's one measure. Another is accumulated cyclone energy, which essentially sums up total storm activity across the basin (i.e. large hurricanes count for much, much more than a weak tropical storm.) During a normal hurricane season the ACE value is around 100. Before the season began NOAA predicted an ACE of around 210 this year. Now it's still early, and most major hurricanes come in late August, September and early October. Climatologically, then, we would only expect an ACE value of 13 at this time of year. So far, we've totaled 10.7. By those two measures, then, we're at or just behind the normal activity we'd expect prior to the real beginning of hurricane season. This is not what was predicted, and what's even more surprising is that the tropics look to remain quiet for at least the next several days. What's more, for the Texas coast at least, time is running out. After the next six weeks, by around September 24, the historical likelihood of a hurricane striking Texas falls to one about every 50 years. So hold on tight for the next month and a half. With that being said, there are some important caveats. The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season may sound a cautionary note, as not a single storm formed before July 31. After that point 15 named storms developed in the Atlantic basin causing more than $50 billion in damage. Yet even in 2004 we were already on Tropical Storm Danielle, and had seen Hurricane Charley slam into southwest Florida. It's also worth revisiting the graphic above, which clearly shows we're not at the point of peak activity. It's foolish to dismiss a hurricane season when, in terms of activity, it's not yet one-fifth done. Nevertheless the odds of this season producing substantially more than normal hurricane activity are clearly falling, and that's not a bad thing at all.
This thread reads like every other thread on the board except that instead of DaDakota posting 400 times and no one else, it's MadMax posting and no one else. Weird.
There may be something to keep our eye on soon. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010 HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF...THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND THE UKMET...CONTINUE TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING THE REMNANTS OF TD 5 BACK INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...AND THEN WESTWARD INTO SE TX/SW LA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH ANY SFC REFLECTION THAT RESULTS...WITH CONSENSUS TODAY SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW SKIRTING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST ON TUESDAY AND ENTERING THE UPPER TX COAST ON WEDNESDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED AND TEMPERATURES LOWERED TUE-THU IN ANTICIPATION OF THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL PUMP INTO THE AREA. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT.
Anyone else constantly amazed how computer models can predict these types of things earlier and earlier? Here's the latest satellite loop. That's ex td 5 over the panhandle of Florida drifting south. The superstar of the bunch (the Euro) has forecast a Tx landfall of something the last two runs. Hold onto your hats. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bi...ht=768&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=10
