Models look to have made a huge shift towards Florida. Models this far out are still volatile so I wouldn't be surprised if it makes another major move again.
Yeah. When I saw where it was I was looking at it going.....man that has Florida written all over it. IIRC most storms that come into the gulf come underneath Cuba.... DD
97L is really struggling with the shear but we still need to keep our eyes on it. What's become interesting is 98L in the Bay of Campeche. Looks like there is a shot of getting Bonnie out of this before it makes landfall into Mexico.
So I'm confused.... before the season started we were hearing about diminishing wind shear (which means less for storms to have to work against as they develop) and explosive water temps (fuel for the storm) for this season. they come out with these models and they tell us we're staring at no less than 19 named storms...but we're really on par for a record-breaking year. Today, there's this from SciGuy in the Chron: http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archi...g_two_waves_including_one_aimed_at_oil_1.html The storm continues to be affected by some wind shear and dry air in its path, but it appears to be getting its act together. And while waters are warm in the Gulf of Mexico, they aren't explosively warm. So this thing has been through the Carribbean...now heading all the way through the Gulf...and the intensity forecasts (which given are not super reliable) do NOT have it developing...particularly not the European models which have been the better ones of late. You should absolutely keep an eye on every system that has the potential to develop. And you all know I think hurricanes are a colossal pain in the ass. But holy crap, what's the use of all the pre-season forecast models? If you're off on the major variables that inhibit or facilitate storm development, you're off big time. It seems like last season we had a forecast for a pretty active storm season...and ended up having among the quietest ever. This year's forecast called for historic, explosive hurricane development. We'll see.
Last season called for a quiet one due to El Nino, and it's exactly what we got. Weren't there only 10 named storms last year? I don't even recall an intense one at all. The other day most everyone who predicts the amount of storms for a season dropped their counts by 5-8. Most every busy season on record have at least 2 named storms in July, and we've not had that.
still a long way to go but i'm always skeptical of forecasts so far in the future. They can barely get tomorrows weather right
LOL, no one has any idea about 97L. Seriously, European models say it's going to be nothing, and not develop. Some show it developing and hitting LA....others Through LA into east tx....and into south east tx. Lot's of IF's. I'd welcome some more rain though.
yeah, i saw that. i think i posted a link about it in this thread, but i'm too lazy to check. i don't know how seriously people take the hurricane season projections, anyway....but....just sayin'
yeah, it rained so much here...i don't mind. more water for our grass. I remember seeing a chart that had three categories - El Nino, La Nina and Neutral years. La Nina years and Neutral years had almost same number of named storms. The 2005 hurricane season was in a Neutral year. So this season is La Nina year...maybe we won't see that many named storms but next summer, we will. I have to dig and find that chart.
I believe that may have been a chart I posted in last year's thread. See if you can search for it, I would appreciate it. (i can't search yet, still waiting on member status upgrade for more than a year lol) El nino tends to have low number of storms in terms of magnitude and la nina has a high number. Neutral is when it's shifting from el to la or vice versa. This year we are in the process of going from el nino to la nina so we're somewhere slightly above the neutral line into a la nina.
LaQuisha and Shandreakay would be difficult to remember how to spell in 2020 when we talk about disasters from 2010's. They have some "dictator" names, though: http://www.halfbakery.com/idea/Offensive_20Hurricane_20Names :grin:
Found it in one of Masters' blogs. They were also predicting that we would enter La Nina by July but haven't seen that we are in La Nina now. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1502&tstamp=
