Liar, It's been raining out here all day.........and yesterday...and the day before. to be fair...it did quit for the day about an hour and a half ago...but still.
It just stopped here in Westchase about 10 minutes ago. We just went from completely flooded streets to hardly any water at all in no time.
Back to the tropics... Looks like the Euro is showing another storm develop and threaten the same area as Alex. The NWS is paying close attention to this model because it handled Alex so well.
We've got two possible storms.. both look like rainmakers for now... but that L 96 is the one to watch for... though it does look unorganized.
The intensity models aren't entirely reliable...but they don't seem to be developing this storm very much. Doesn't look like it's a hurricane waiting to happen. Could be a big rain-maker though...like Alex.
Remember that tiny low pressure system off LA? It's been flaring up near its center for a couple days now but the NHC does not seem concerned with it. I dunno looks like a tiny TD to me and its drifting westward.
Good thing that there is some wind shear affecting the invest 96 or it would have a big possibility to develop big time. It is supposed to rain early thursday due to the Invest 95 heading our way from the east.
As you can see above...all models are drawing further south this morning along the Texas coast for Invest 96. Closer to Corpus and pulling west through the state.
I usually wait till I know there are no land masses in the track before it hits the U.S. shoreline. Those invests always seem to coil up in the Gulf. Once it passes the Yucatan tip, we'll get a better picture.
There's potential for development of a system heading towards the Gulf... in the meantime, there's this good news at Masters' blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html Time to cut the forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season? Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts: 23 named storms: PSU statistical model 20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model 18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray) 17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR increased their numbers to 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 with their July 6 forecast) 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology The group forecasting the lowest activity was the Florida State University group led by Dr. Tim LaRow. They use a new dynamical forecast model called COAPS, which is funded by a 5-year, $6.2 million grant from NOAA. This year's June forecast by the COAPS model called for 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. However, Dr. LaRow emailed me yesterday to say that the COAPS model is now calling for reduced activity. Using the state of the atmosphere and ocean as of July 15, a new run of the COAPS model was performed over the weekend. The new forecast is now calling for two fewer hurricanes--a total of 15 named storms and 8 hurricanes (including Alex.) The COAPS model generated an "ensemble" of five different forecasts, done by varying the initial sea surface temperatures by a few percent at the beginning of the model run. These five forecasts came up with a range of 12 - 16 named storms (including Alex), and 7 - 10 hurricanes. It will be interesting to see when CSU issues its August 4 forecast if they also cut their numbers. With only one named storm (Alex) thus far this year, it's getting pretty hard to have a season with 19 or 20 named storms. Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as nineteen named storms. These four seasons--1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005--all had at least three named storms by July 20.
Falcons, I saw that on the news. Max, i just hope that new invest won't cause any significant problems over the oil spill. They need to kill that well off already. I don't think it'd turn in a major hurricane though. Looks like it's battling dry air and wind shear. Good thing!
there appears to be more wind shear generally than what most of the prediction models anticipated. seems like we heard over and over again that wind shear would not inhibit storm formation...i know it's early still, but it sure seems wind shear has been a player in keeping the systems we've seen so far from strengthening.
Yep, that's probably why the last tropical depression didn't gain strength. it was battling wind shear until it reached the bay of campeche and didn't have time to gain strength. DD, it's the same system we are talking about.
