[Tropics] 2009 Hurricane season

I would recommend now. It is a matter of time after all. I'm thinking about evacuating. I hear that Vegas is lovely this time of year.

 

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I don't know where you saw that, but anyone who said that would be full of crap. The revised forecast in May from Colorado state calls for an average hurricane season with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.

Another forecasting organization called for 15 named storms with 8 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes.

Both are saying that there is a 30-50 percent chance of an El Nino event this year, which would dramatically decrease our chances of hurricanes as El Nino cools the waters of the Atlantic reducing the chances of storms.

Both forecasts predict the east and Gulf coasts have only an average chance (31 percent) of getting a direct strike from a major hurricane.

 

Did any of those forecasts factor in pie?

 

I know I might be jinxing us, but has there ever been a city (or specific area) that was nailed back-to-back consecutively? (Cuba doesn't count. God likes nailing that country...)

 

There have been multiple hurricanes hit the same general area in the same year if memory serves. Florida's eastern coast got, I believe, four storms in 2003 or 2004.

Like most statistical probabilities, everything resets after each storm. No one precludes another.

 

I knew that all probabilities reset, technically, but found it not only odd that Houston gets hit roughly every 25 years but also that we get snow every winter following a hurricane.

There's more to it than random probabilities, IMO>

 

Preferably, after I do...haha...

In my subdivision (which isn't that old, built in 2003-2004), about 80-90% of the homes here had serious water damage during Hurricane Ike because of faulty roofing/contracting on almost all of the houses. Almost everyone lost shingles, got water in the home, ceilings caved in, it was a huge mess here for a long time and some homes still aren't completely fixed. They found out most of the roofs didn't have the right amount of nails/staples and that's why most shingles flew off.

We didn't take any damage last year, fortunately, which was amazing considering I had one friend down the street who had about $35,000 in damage to his house, ceiling caved in, and that was on the minor end of the damage around here.

Praying and holding our breath during this hurricane season. I don't know whether or not to flee to Pflugerville (brother has a house on a golf course) like last year, or stay here and try to prevent damage to the house during the storm, IF a hurricane were to come.

Any recommendations on riding out a storm?

 

Wasn't Haiti hit by both Ike and Gustav?

 

We just hit the top of the hill in terms of hurricane strength and frequency. We should see a decline for the next 10 years or so and then it'll start picking back up. This is a long term trend



For the annual trend, the experts have predicted that we're in a neutral el/la nina so there will probably be less hurricanes than last year. Hurricanes spawn more often if there is a la nina effect in the climate. This year, models are predicting that we'll be in a el nino.

Keep in mind that the trends are for northern Hemisphere so although it's likely that there will be less hurricanes this year, doesn't mean that Texas itself has less or more chances of a direct hit.

 

I was just thinking the other day about hurricane supplies. I need to get batteries and another radio.

Have any of you had experience with the hand crank radios?

 

Used one during Ike last year and it was a GOD SEND.

Same with the handcrank flashlight.

 

That's what she said.

 

I'm going out to make a bold statement here and say that Houston WILL NOT be hit with a major hurricane this season.

 

After I moved up here, I used to miss it. Then I moved back to TX for 10 months and it rained very day. Now I'm back in co, and I don't miss it. In fact, it rained every day of my holiday weekend

 

EVERY year they predict an above average hurricane activity.

I hope one doesn't hit here this season. I hated being without power for 2 WEEKS!! after the hurricane hit, i took off to san antonio for 4 days. I was actually suppose to fly out to NYC for the first time but had to cancel cause my flight was due to leave on saturday and thats when Ike hit. DAMN YOU IKE! ended up spending all my money in San Antonio getting drunk hahahaha

 

dianap07 = bizarro Lady_Di???