Ioke is INCREDIBLE. Did you see the reports that central pressure could drop below 900 MB??? That's one of the craziest things I've ever seen. It looks like it will break the record for longest period of time for a storm to hold category 4 status or higher. Wow.
I'm flying out to Argentina on tuesday to beat up some hookers, i hope this ernesto fellow doesn't get in the way...
What a difference a night makes. Obviously, things had been trending eastward for the past few days. Well, the trend continues with the NHC shifting its track dramatically eastward with a landfall now on the Gulf coast of Florida. The last of the outliers in terms of track models has shifted fully east and none of even the smaller models shows Ernesto striking west of the Florida panhandle. All of the MAJOR models are not showing landfall between the Big Bend in Florida and the southern Gulf Coast. To make matters more complicated, they are now convinced this will be a major storm when it makes landfall regardless of how much land interaction occurs between now and late Thursday or early Friday when it hits Florida. Most of the projections call for a strong cat 3 to cross the Florida coastline. If that isn't bad enough for Floridians, there is a chance this storm pushes back over the Atlantic, reforms and becomes a threat for the Carolinas. Granted, it would likely only brush the coastline and not go on a full-frontal assault, but they could get a lot of rain and some high winds along the coast.
i'm going to Orlando in late-October. hoping it will still be there. "they don't close florida" - Roy Walley
We went to Disney World when I was little. I remember my Mom asking a tour guide or one of the employees, don't remember which now, how the big white ball that is Epcott has never been knocked off by a hurricane. The thing basically looks like a giant golf ball. The guy's basic response was "I don't know and don't really care, because when the really big ones come through, I'm in a bunker somewhere."
sometime google disneyworld hurricane preparations or something to that effect...it's amazing. they're on top of it. we should have disney design the levees in NOLA! if we agree to put pictures of Mickey and Donald on there, they'd do it!!!
It has been hard to track this storm as it had not real defined center of rotation, but now that the sheer to it's west is dissappating, watch that eyewall show up, and give a more accurate representation of where it is going. I hope it lingers over Cuba and weakens... DD
It's sad when you can get better Hurricane coverage on an internet message board than you can by watching your local news. The good news is, you guys make me sound like a freaking genius to my fiancee. Rock on.
No kidding... You should have seent he look on my co-workers face when I dropped a "wind shear" bomb on them.... Great job breaking it down guys...
The resources on the internet (including the SciGuy blog on the Chron) are FAR superior to anything you find in the broadcast media. It's really not even close. Even the weather channel is a joke when it comes to honest, reliable, non-hyped tropical forecasting. I personally trust Dr. Masters at Wunderground more than most anyone out there. The NHC is usually a little more conservative as they have to be, but they are the official forecaster. There are tons of resources on the net for finding information and, if you know a little about hurricanes, you can make your own decisions.
A friend of mine who lives in Miami was saying that the entire FEMA staff should be former leaders from South Forida as they have the hurricane preparedness/recovery down to a science. Instead you get yahoo's from DC who have no clue what they are doing.
There are days when I seriously wish I had a house in the mountains (somewhere closer would be fine too) where I could spend August and September. Just board up the house the last day of July, turn off all the electrical outlets and head for the hills. At the end of September, hire a couple people to start up the a/c, pull the boards down and put them away and stock my damn refrigerator.
Ernesto looks like it was seriously disrupted by Hispaniola since the morning. It also bounced a bit to the west. Can't wait to see what difference this makes to the computer models. Jeff last night the GFDL intensity forecast for Ioke was showing 860mb and 190kts sustained winds. That's 210mph and stronger than any hurricane/typhoon in recorded history. Now that is some crazy stuff there.
Ernesto is coming back a bit, but even the GFDL has come back to the east will all the models bringing Ernesto on shore over Florida as no larger than a big category 1 storm - a far cry from what was being predicted a couple days go.
Which is excellent news !! I wish we could get a small TS to form in the gulf and come ashore around Corpus and spin up to Austin, we need the RAIN !! DD
Funny you should mention that. While watching the Texans tonight, Sterling Sharpe said something about the hurricane hitting Houston on Thursday. I've been out of the loop all weekend, so I ran into my room to check this thread to get the REAL story. Perhaps I shouldn't rely on the NFL Network to get my hurricane news?
This whole hurricane fear is silly. Tell you what: I will blow every man, woman and child if Ernesto hits Houston. In an appropriate honor, as it were...
