I am a gambling man by nature and since cancun has only really gotten nabbed once (last year) i thought we would be all clear... i.e. no way the dealer won't bust on a 16 twice in a row, etc... We're getting married at the Secrets Capri Resort in Playa del Carmen. Playa del Carmen didn't relaly get touched at all byt Rita when she came through, much like HOuston was sparedversus Beaumont Port Arthur.. as long as it heads north a bit more, we'll be okay assuming us and our guests can get down there on a plane... just one more issue on th list to dealwith leading up to the wedding, i am ready to get this show on the road, and a beer in my hand on the beach!
Don't tell me, she was born on a rainy day, right? I knew a chick named Rainy who had a brother named Sonny. Hopefully, I'll be able to name my child Slightly Overcast with a Stiff North Breeze...
I'd say his wedding is more important than college football.. unless Vandy beats Michigan on the same day as Jeff from Vandy's wedding
The UTMB Institutional Emergency Preparedness Officer says it will be named Ernesto if/when it does reach tropical storm status.
My number one option was making sure it wasn't opening wkd for the texans... plus with the labor day holiday, more people were able to come down. I will be looking for a score though on the Vandy vs Michigan...
I don't have much to say about the tropical depression, but this thread makes me very happy that I ordered a widescreen monitor yesterday.
jeff.. congrats on the wedding. If Vandy did beat Michigan.... I'd declare you to be good luck and request that you have another wedding on the day of each big game Hopefuly you don't have issues with the storm... during your wedding week.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=481&tstamp=200608 The latest 12Z (8am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray a conflicting picture of what may happen. Three of the four major global models--UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS--dissipate or severely weaken the storm by Monday. The Canadian model, which has been the most aggressive in making Ernesto a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, now keeps the system a weak tropical storm all the way to landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. The European Center model has a similar forecast. Oddly, the large upper-level trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean is forecast by these models to move west away from Ernesto, and an upper level high pressure system to build on top of the storm. This situation should act to lower the shear and aid in intensification, and that it what the official NHC forecast is calling for. It is unusual for the models to forecast a favorable shear environment, yet dissipate a storm, and serves to show the limitations of these models in making hurricane intensity forecasts. I have very little confidence in any of the Ernesto intensity forecasts--including the official NHC forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. High wind shear could still destroy this storm on Sunday. Ernesto should slowly intensify through Saturday, but beyond that, I have no idea. It's best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. All portions the U.S. coast from the Florida Keys to Brownsville, Texas are at risk from this storm.
Paging Mr. Jeff Balke.... I can't believe we're 2 two pages into a thread about tropical weather without a response from our resident weather guru. I hope this thing finds some more shear or land before it enters the gulf. If not it could get ugly.
Actually, Faos, not that far from the truth. I spent today doing what I probably should've done last month - getting supplies for hurricane season. I got my pre-cut plywood from Home Depot to fit all my windows that will last me for five years. Woot. I'd be lying if I said Ernesto didn't prompt this sudden interest in organization and preparadness. Ok, here's my take thus far... First off, we won't know ANYTHING close to a legit track before Sunday in terms of where it might make landfall. My TENDENCY is not to trust storm tracks 5 days out, particulary when they are this divergent both in track and intensity forecast. We still have a few tracks that dissipate the storm in the western Carribbean while others - noteably the Canadian model and the GFDL - strengthening Ernesto and moving him into the Gulf somewhere between the upper Texas coast and the Florida panhandle. In the last set of runs, a couple of other models have come on board and show a fairly dramatic northerly turn late in the forecast period after the storm is in the Gulf. The GFDL's latest has shifted west from its previous track, which took the storm in around Mississippi as a minimal hurricane, and now brings the storm to near Galveston in 5 days as a strong category 3. The intensity forecast at this point is worthless. Every model run shifts up and down, so there is no point in trusting those models at this point. The general prevailing wisdom is that, if Ernesto makes it into the Gulf as a hurricane (a pretty likely scenario), it will undoubtedly strengthen there and threaten the Gulf coast as a fairly sizable hurricane - perhaps not on par with Katrina or Rita, but in the neighborhood. As for the track, whenever I see a track that has us in the crosshairs this far out, in a way, I actually feel relieved. So many things can happen between now and then that such certainty is a virtual impossibility. Last year for Rita, it was a similar situation. It looked like it was going to make a b-line for Galveston when it was passing by the tip of Florida. The NHC had it going in right through Galveston. Of course, then it shifted to Corpus and slowly moved it north and west until it came in around the Texas Louisiana border. The point is, 5-day models are highly un-reliable. There are a couple key features that will have a significant impact on Ernesto. The first is a pair of features in the Carribbean. One is an upper level low (ULL) just to the west of Cuba and moving off to the west fairly quickly. The other is an area of high pressure just to the east of Cuba. If the storm were to run into that ULL, it would likely be destroyed by the intense wind shear. However, that seems unlikely given that the storm continues to intensify under moderate shear at the moment and takes little jogs north every once in a while. The high pressure area over just east of Cuba is a significant part of the puzzle as well. A few models move it into the central Carribbean forcing Ernesto west towards the Yucatan. Others slide the high further east allowing a more northerly and easterly track. I tend to agree with the latter given the changes we've seen in the upper level atmosphere over the last 24 hours. The most important weather element for us in Texas is a Canadian trough that is forecast to dig to the south and east in the early to middle part of next week. Think of the US cut in half diagonally from New England through Southern California by a ridge. As it digs further to the south, it will push Ernesto along it to the north and east. If you are in Texas and you don't want Ernesto hitting here, root for that trough to be sturdy and to move south early next week. The sooner it digs south, the more likely it is that we will see Ernesto make a turn to the north and, maybe, even to the east before landfall. Areas of low pressure like hurricanes cannot enter areas of high pressure like this trough. As a result, Ernest will be steered by the frontal boundry with very light steering currents in the Gulf currently. The bad news is that the Gulf is probably the best incubator for a storm at the moment and as that trough digs north, it will slow the storm down giving it time to strengthen. We'll just have to see.
Just FYI, the latest NHC at 10pm will be out momentarily. Their newest forecast track which you can already see at Wunderground does shift the storm LATE in the forecast track slightly north and east of the previous track and the GFDL is also starting to show that bend as well. The more that bend continues, the more we'll see the track shift away from the Texas coast and the focus become the central Gulf coast. But, as I said, it is WAY to early to tell.
This storm is a total crapshoot. An ULL is doing its best to rip this storm apart like all the others this year but it seems to be hanging on. There is a concern on the weather blogs that the cirrus feathering out to the west of the CDO is an indication that the shear is decreasing. That would not be a good thing. I get the feeling that we are going to have a real monster in the central gulf. Only time will tell however. Everyone keep a close eye and its probably a good idea to fill up your gas tanks right now, just in case.
Is it just me or does it seem like everytime we've had a tropical disturbance this year, Frank Billingsley shows it with a red line pointed directly at Houston?
And yes, the above is of course tongue in cheek. Please no one get all uptight and call me an insensitive whatever. Even though I am.
