I can across a website with some very interesting numbers related to fast breaks off defensive rebounds which I thought I'd share here: http://hoopnumbers.com/teamAnalysisView?team=Houston+Rockets&analysis=outletPass For the last several seasons, it shows leaders in "fast break trigger rate" amongst other relevant stats. That trigger rate is defined as percentage of defensive rebounds grabbed by the player that led eventually to a fast break score. A good indicator of who's been our best outlet passers. Trigger Rate leaders Guards/Wings Bigs Rank Year Player Rate Rank Year Player Rate 1 2005 Jon Barry 25.0% 1 2005 Maurice Taylor 16.3% 2 2009 Tracy McGrady 21.6% 2 2008 Chuck Hayes 15.7% 3 2005 Tracy McGrady 20.3% 3 2009 Chuck Hayes 15.3% 4 2006 Tracy McGrady 19.3% 4 2006 Chuck Hayes 14.7% 5 2005 David Wesley 18.8% 5 2005 Scott Padgett 14.5% 6 2009 Rafer Alston 18.5% 6 2007 Chuck Hayes 13.9% 7 2009 Aaron Brooks 17.7% 7 2005 Juwan Howard 13.2% 8 2008 Tracy McGrady 17.6% 8 2005 Yao Ming 13.0% 9 2006 Rafer Alston 17.0% 9 2008 Yao Ming 13.0% 10 2008 Luther Head 16.2% 10 2006 Juwan Howard 12.8% 11 2006 David Wesley 16.2% 11 2004 Kelvin Cato 12.7% 12 2007 Tracy McGrady 15.6% 12 2007 Juwan Howard 12.5% 13 2008 Rafer Alston 15.2% 13 2007 Yao Ming 12.1% 14 2006 Luther Head 15.0% 14 2009 Luis Scola 11.7% 15 2007 Rafer Alston 14.1% 15 2008 Luis Scola 11.6% 16 2007 Chuck Hayes 13.9% 16 2009 Yao Ming 11.3% 17 2006 Keith Bogans 13.8% 17 2004 Yao Ming 11.2% 18 2009 Shane Battier 13.7% 18 2004 Maurice Taylor 10.1% 19 2007 Luther Head 13.6% 19 2008 Dikembe Mutombo 9.9% 20 2005 Bob Sura 13.2% 20 2006 Yao Ming 9.2% Also of interest would be how often the team scores on the fast break with the player on the court (but didn't get the rebound). Players who excel at leaking out will benefit for me. On-court (non-rebounder) Fast Break Rate Guards/Wings Bigs Rank Year Player Rate Rank Year Player Rate 1 2008 Bonzi Wells 14.9% 1 2009 Luis Scola 15.3% 2 2009 Shane Battier 14.0% 2 2008 Luis Scola 15.2% 3 2008 Shane Battier 13.5% 3 2008 Dikembe Mutombo 14.9% 4 2008 Tracy McGrady 13.3% 4 2007 Chuck Hayes 14.2% 5 2007 Rafer Alston 12.9% 5 2008 Carl Landry 14.1% 6 2009 Rafer Alston 12.9% 6 2009 Yao Ming 14.0% 7 2008 Luther Head 12.7% 7 2008 Yao Ming 13.8% 8 2008 Rafer Alston 12.6% 8 2009 Carl Landry 13.7% 9 2007 Shane Battier 12.5% 9 2007 Yao Ming 13.4% 10 2007 Tracy McGrady 12.2% 10 2008 Chuck Hayes 12.7% 11 2009 Aaron Brooks 12.0% 11 2009 Chuck Hayes 12.2% 12 2009 Tracy McGrady 12.0% 12 2007 Dikembe Mutombo 12.2% 13 2009 Ron Artest 11.8% 13 2007 Juwan Howard 11.0% 14 2007 Luther Head 10.9% A few comments: McGrady's ability to get the rebound and trigger a fast break may be underappreciated. He could fit into a fast-breaking style of player as a trigger-man. Maybe not so much as a finisher. Battier and Hayes have been maligned for not fitting into a fast-break style. Hayes has most consistently been our best big at triggering a fast break off his defensive rebound. No suprise to those that have paid attention. And Battier, despite not being a good finisher at the rim, does help the break by running to the 3-point line. This spaces the floor in transition, stretches the defense, and create more open lanes down the middle of the floor. Luis Scola is arguably our best defensive rebounder right now, but he actually helps the fast break more by leaking out and running hard when others get the rebound.
Good stuff. Starting the fast break takes rebounding and passing ability. Tracy Mcgrady and Chuck Hayes seem to have some of the best combinations of those skills on our team. Tracy Mcgrady in particular has that Jason Kidd-esque quality that allows him to get the rebound dribble half way down the court and "create" a fast break by attacking the defense before it's set with his passing ability. Hopefully that's something we see more of this year. Former players rant about it all the time when they watch the rockets play but we can run with Yao on the floor if he learns how to be a good outlet passer. Some have laughed at me for repeating that here but it is important. As of now we get little to no fast break opportunities if Yao rebounds the ball because he pauses and gives it to the nearest perimeter player instead of looking down the court.
I find it kind of ironic that 4 of the top 5 Trigger Rate Leaders (Guards) and 3 of the top 5 Trigger Rate Leaders (Bigs) are players that played under JVG teams.
I for one am not surprised to see Chuck as a top "trigger" man on the break. He's very good about looking down the court for opportunities. I'm also not surprised to see Dikembe at the top of the "on the court" list. He did a lot of shot blocking per minute that he was on the court, and blocks tend to lead to fast breaks. Interesting stats.
Great finding. These data showed player's BBIQ. Hayes is very good at transition game. Luis always run hard to get easy points.
also interesting: when i checked these stats for the rest of the league i found an interesting trend. 1. 29 teams have a guard as the player with the best trigger rate after a rebound. that makes sense since when guards get a rebound they can start the fast break immediately without looking for an outlet pass. 2. almost every team had a big guy in the top 3 on the team in fast break scores. conclusion - when guards rebound they can start a fast break immediately. guards who rebound more often would of course lead to more fast breaks. while big men who run the floor better than their counterparts obviously make better fast break scorers than guards. so rather than the traditional (big guy rebounds and outlets to guard), the more effective way to build a fast break team is with guards who are good for their position at rebounding and bigs who are good at running the floor. that's the reason scola and tmac are ranked so high in the categories which durvasa so generously provided.
durvasa, just wanted to say, I love the research and the angles you take to looking at our team's performance. Sometimes our intuition tells us one thing, but the data tells us another and that's great to have that "check" present since our intuition is rather fallable. I am surprised by McGrady's consistently high trigger rate. Also, the comment made regarding the players under JVG's system was interesting as well. We always heard that he was always yelling at the players to run, run, run, but for whatever reason it was hard to see it happening. Also, Jon Barry in 2005 -- 1 out of every 4 of his rebounds resulted in a fast break score? Wow. That's a value-add of a player that is not directly reflected in any box score, but it indicates (1) their awareness of scoring opportunities through pushing the ball, and (2) ability to get the ball into the right place and setting the tone for the fast break mentality. I wonder how this year's numbers will add up and compare, by the end of the season. ALSO, one thing that I notice different is that this year's Rockets run hard even off of made baskets, and if your opponent is shooting in the neighborhood of 40-50%, is roughly every other shot. That can translate into a ton of fast break opportunities (getting an open shot off in the presence of an unset defense) that wouldn't be accounted for by rebound triggers.
Just because certain posters keep saying the same thing over and over again, doesn't mean it's true. (One of my pet peeves on this board ... people repeating false mantras until they are universally accepted as truth.)
So you're telling me there's a valid reason why shane runs to the 3 point line on the break instead of going inside? No way! good find and i agree with your observations...chuck always does look to fire the pass forward, yao still has a habit of sometimes handing it to the closest guy and not looking ahead, but he's getting better.
Well, his "valid reason" is that he is a very poor finisher and ball handler. Getting the easy layup with a possibility of an and 1 would undoubtedly be the best option.
One player who's absent from the list for trigger rate is Carl Landry. In fact, last season, the Rockets fast breaked only 7.8% of the time off his defensive rebound. That's actually the lowest for any player that was tracked over the last several years. Just one more aspect of the game that Landry needs to improve on this year.
If they do a statistics of "fast break trigger rate after blocks", Mutombo would probably rank dead last, as he needs to finish his finger wag before passing the ball out.
i think it's obvious a layup is the best outcome of a fastbreak. If a guy like shane isn't a good finisher or ballhandler, but he's good three point shooter, it makes sense to flash to the line and let more capable players finish. Not only is he attracting the attention of the defense, but he's also not taking a fnishing opportunity away from someone who does it better. Of course that doesn't mean he should run to the 3 pt line if he's the one ahead of the break, but i don't believe that's the case.
Lowest for any player tracked? That's never a good place to be. Reminds me of Rafer "dead last in FG%" Alston.
Funny and disappointing how these threads drop off so quickly. It takes a bit of thought and effort to put these together but when its done, unless people can run further with it, nobody can really argue with the data. Just another bump for those who might've missed it.
Looking at that link you provided, I am surprised that Rajon Rondo and Jason Kidd don't have higher %. They both are considered very good rebounding point guards, but perhaps they don't have people around them running?
He tends to try to out-jump his opponent instead of boxing them out on rebounds, which may be why it's harder for him to make an outlet pass for the break. By the time he comes back down and gets into a passing position, the window for a break may have passed.
