They report earnings next Thursday after the Close. Horizontal Line at 28. I don't look too often at Financials, but I would leave AXP alone. Similar to what CXbby just said.... Don't try to force a stock to fit your POV. Finally, since since you are interested in Options, that shows a Short Term to Intermediate timeline. Pick a handful of stocks or a specific Industry Sector to concentrate on rather than trying to trade across the entire spectrum of industry groups. The people who have been trading for a while are able to be broadly diversified, but those new to it should <i>Focus</i>.
<i>Stock Charts</i> has a tutorial. Chart School Let us know when you are finished with <i>Chart School</i> and then we will go from there.
I'll post my opinion on UNG and other commodity based ETF/ETNs in a separate post, not on their technicals, but them as a trading vehicle. Here's what I think of the other stocks you listed: FSLR held its gap support at ~175 quite well until mid June, when it broke. This was actually a very nice short setup back then. Since, it has completely filled the gap, and then some. For the past month it has been confined by the downtrend line, currently at ~150. If it breaks this downtrend line, it could easily retest the gap support it broke at ~175, now resistance.(similar to what XOM has done) The fact that it has successfully filled its gap also helps the bull case. Once it reaches ~175 though, I would flip my long into a short, with a tight stop. This is all in the intermediate term though. On a longer horizon, I can't really tell its overall direction based on its current chart. Overall I would be hesitant about this trade. The main reason being that downtrend line I drew is pretty iffy, and my long entry is based completely on it. Resistance at ~175 is very real though. SHLD broke resistance at 50 in April, and in mid-May successfully retested. Since then I figure it is just going to chop its way higher. If you are not in already, I don't see an entry point near by. Unless you want to give it all the way back down to 50. POT has rallied all the way back to fill its gap in October 08. It broke its downtrend line in May, and 3 days ago successfully retested. On the upside it looks to fill the gap formed last month. The problem with this setup is that downtrend line. Like for FSLR, I may be reaching a bit. Personally, I like chart patterns that are distinct and clear, leaving no doubt in mind. For the trendline in both FSLR and POT, it is a bit forced(by me). On the downside for POT, it has rallied from ~50 to ~120. This completed a 50% retracement of its slide from ~240 to ~50. Add to that it has filled the gap of 8/08 already, the next leg may be down.(after probably filling last months gap) Sorry I couldn't be of more help, I know I didn't have much of an opinion on the overall direction of any of those stocks, so I am not providing much new info to you. Neither of them seem to have a clear setup for an immediate trade to me. I would love to hear your views on the matter though.
On the topic of commodity based ETF/ETNs, this is my view: Since these ETF/ETNs cannot hold actual commodities, they hold future contracts instead. Since future contracts expire each month, these funds must swap out the front month contracts for next month's, to avoid taking delivery. The problem with this is currently with oil and gas, we are in a state of contango. This means the price of the front month contract is lower than that of future months. So every time these funds roll their contracts over(each month), they lose on the roll yield- swapping lower priced front month contracts for higher priced latter month contracts. To make matters worse, future traders are all fully aware of when these funds have to roll over, so they simply step in front of these funds, giving them even worse prices. So in reality, while the fund's underlying commodity may be holding steady, the fund is still losing money. This means there is a huge negative in going long any commodity based ETF/ETN when its underlying commodity is in a state of contango. What does this have to do with us? Well, if you are trading based off chart patterns, this negative roll yield completely distorts the chart of these ETF/ETNs. This is why there are major discrepancies between the charts of USO/UNG and their respective commodity. The reason we trade off chart patterns is because the cumulative buying and selling pressure at times form distinct patterns. The charts for these funds on the other hand are skewed by an artificial roll yield that has nothing to do with buying or selling pressure. This renders the charts useless to us. If you must trade them though, trade them based on the charts of their actual underlying commodity. That is West Texas Intermediate Crude(WTI) for USO, and NATGAS futures for UNG. Keep in mind if you are going long you will have to fight the roll yield, in addition to every other obstacle already making trading difficult. Of course the way around this is trading commodities directly. The one exception to this is GLD. This is because they own actual gold. Mountains of it. More than many actual countries.
RE: Mr. Brightside After closer inspection, SHLD may be bouncing off its 100 EMA(red line), like it did mid-May. This can act as your exit point if you want to go long, as opposed to giving it all the way down to 50.
Quick question, are you guys drawing the support and resistance lines yourself using stockcharts or some other program? I am playing around with some graphs but dont see an option to draw support and resistance lines.
Ok, wow what an absolutely, worthlessly uneventful options expiration Friday. These days are always a big deal for what I do professionally, however today I stopped trading before even 4pm. The volume is pathetic, and there are no closing imbalances to speak of. It is getting worse and worse lately. Frustrating. Anyways, onto our swing trades. As promised, here is some analysis on Smith & Wesson: I have to apologize for not bringing this one up earlier. I entered this the same day as RGR, on the premise that it looked like it would hold at 5.0. However I did not mention it because there wasn't much of a chart pattern. This has changed since then. It looks like it is in the process of a Cup and Handle formation. Today it bounced nicely off of resistance at the gap. Right now it looks like it is at the tail end of the "Cup" part, it may push a little higher to fill the gap or just stop here. What's next should be the handle, and this will be our entry point. Look for it to pull back on low volume next week, to possibly as low as 5.5-5.75. Too much lower and the pattern is null. Pick a spot here, as it will be your best chance to get in. The true breakout will be new highs, at 7.5. You could add to your position then, if this is how it pans out. However be mindful, because by then it will be vertical with a chance to pull back.
Refer to my response to Qazi for what I am trying to do. I don't want to seem like some kind of guru who knows where stocks are going. That couldn't be further from the truth. All I am doing is finding stocks that have distinct patterns which will provide me tangible entry and exit points. This means that for the mass majority of stocks that are patternless at the moment, I will have no opinion on. This is the case for C. However I can give you some advice and some analysis. There are certain sectors that if you want to trade stocks within that sector, you should analyze the sector as a whole, as opposed to individual stocks. Banks, REITs, Commodities- Oil, Gas, Gold, Steel, Agriculture etc. Those are some examples off the top of my head. I do trade these sectors extensively, however not often for swing trade. C's future price action will be a variant of the banking sector. And though I have no opinion on where they are going, lets take a look at what it looks like for some analysis: The areas of interest at the moment are the 40 dollar level as support and the 200 EMA as resistance. The banking sector has been in a state of consolidation since its run up from the bottom, and this has not changed. If it can break any of these two levels on a spike in volume, then you have a clearer direction. Good luck, hope this helps.
Strictly looking at TA and nothing else, I see the IYF to be higher a month from now. On the other hand I see C being lower a month from now. Maybe 2.00-2.50 range. I'm basing this on price action and volume.
UPDATE: Since I promised Dr of Dunk I would let this thread die if there wasn't much interest, I am just going to tie up some loose ends here and probably won't post any more new setups. Some of the previously mentioned stocks I am about to go over have had weak breakouts, and some others are setting up. You can browse through what I said about them earlier to see how they have turned out. In general I gave a plan of how I was going to trade them, as well as an overall description. So here we go: ________________________________ Since my last post about NVAX, it has bounced off 2.50 and has risen to upper resistance. I previously mentioned that this resistance is at 3.25. Curiously enough, its high of the day today is 3.25. Volume is picking up, and this stock is setting up for a breakout in a big way. I am kind of mad at myself for not getting in any other flu stocks, because they have recently been on FIRE. Take a look at HEB and BCRX. NVAX is obviously the lagger for now, however once it clears 3.25, I see it catching up quick. Enter once resistance is broken. Again, if you have not read my previous posts, the setups I talk about are for trading purposes only, not investing. And that couldn't be more true for these flu stocks. They make horrible investments because in the long run they are a pure gamble. However they are a trader's dream due to their extreme speculative nature. For traders, volatility is king. CMA has been bouncing off support multiple times the past couple of months. And today was no different. Apparently it reported earnings this morning, and I guess it wasn't too good. I barely even read these reports, along with economic numbers and Fed decisions. The reason is because my interpretation of data means diddly squat to how I plan on trading them. All I need is for the market or the stock to tell me which way it wants to go, instead of trying to decipher on my own. The greatest mistake a trader can make is having an interpretation of the market, then being stubborn once the market disagrees. So for CMA, current support is ~20.00, meaning any close below and I'm short. I bought some of CHLN as mentioned in my previous post about it, to see if it would bounce off its 20 EMA again, and it has. However this current bounce is the weakest one yet. Add to that I found out how thin of a stock this is once I started trading it, meaning I couldn't go as big as I wanted. All in all it probably isn't even worth the trouble. However a 20+% gain is still not bad. I still plan on shorting it when it breaks below that 20 EMA, which I believe is where the real money is made. But with the amount of shares I'm able to get in, it will more likely be for sh*** and giggles. I entered my position in JCP yesterday at the open, at 28.80. It has broken above resistance, however, the volume is putrid. This means, it is either an extremely weak breakout, or doomed to failure. This is what lead me to puke out half my shares by the end of the day yesterday. The rest I'll have to give to ~28.0 it looks like, which even at half the shares is too much for my tastes, considering the likely reward. Ok this next one is for Mr. Brightside. As I previously mentioned, FLSR was confined by its trendline and a break of ~150 would mean a possible test of higher resistance. Well, today it broke it, and would you know it, the low of the day is 150.00 to the penny. I am not in this trade, because as I previously mentioned, it isn't clear enough of a setup. However, if you put a gun to my head, I would say it goes to ~175 with a possible short after that. Other updates: XOM- I took a small loss on this yesterday with an exit of 68.80. With the SPY negating its head & shoulder pattern, XOM is following suit. Losing .60 isn't bad when the possible reward was 6.00. Good job on the long Mango. FITB, FINL- some of the possible shorts I was looking at bounced nicely off support along with the market rally. These can all be revisited once they come back down. Remember, only short or long once the stock has broken through resistance/support. RGR, SWHC- I am looking for SWHC to pull back the next few days, forming the "handle" of the C&H setup. This will give us an entry point to open a position, or to double up if you are already in. Since RGR is in the same sector, it could pull back as well. We want it to hold at ~13.0 for the long case. ___________________________________ Alright, well that about covers all the setups that I have mentioned in this thread. Hopefully some of this stuff helped someone. Or at the very least, provided some entertainment or a quick laugh. Good luck everyone.
CXbby, keep up the good work. You have opened me up to a new trading style. I am keeping an eye on SWHC for the pullback and buy a few call options.
CXbby I really enjoyed your work in this thread. XOM might need a bit of rest in the very near future. The action in Crude Oil could be a bit Toppy on a Short Term basis and also needs a bit of correction & rest.
Thanks for the kind words Mango and Qazi. It's a shame that this thread has generated so little interest. I guess I am partly to blame, coming out of nowhere with all this. On a basketball forum no less. It is a bit much to ask I suppose, for people to just blindly trust someone with no proven record. The opening post probably didn't help my cause much- modesty was my intent, however I may have come off as a novice trader looking for advice. Maybe if I simple stated, "I'm here to teach you how to trade!", this thread would have generated some additional attention. Although likely the wrong kind of attention lol. Honestly my intentions were quite simple. The stock market thread was one of the biggest I have seen, so I assumed there were many interested. I have some experience compared to the average investor, and have had some success. Why not share this with a community that I care about, with my fellow Rockets fans. This is still something I wish to do, however I must admit, it is a bit discouraging when only 2-3 people even seem to care. Good call DoD. Anyways, I talk and write a lot in this thread. But just to show I am not completely talking out of my ***, I will update a few more trades here. These are not any new setups. I have written extensively on how to trade each and every one of them in my previous posts. I have provided exact entry and exit points, to the penny. I have held your hand through out the whole way. If you needed me to draw you a picture, I even did. So if you did not take advantage, it is not my fault. I've done my best. ___________________________________ I have repeatedly brought up NVAX because it is one of the best setups I am currently following. Like I previously stated on numerous occasions, resistance is at 3.25. BUY when it breaks on strong volume. I have been in this trade since early May. However, as it surged through resistance last Friday, I took the opportunity to double up at 3.30. Hopefully you have taken advantage as well. This next trade was a response to Mr. Brightside's request. If you haven't read it, please go back and review. I specifically mapped out each entry as well as exit point. To the penny. Which is asking quite a lot for a $170 stock with a 10+ cent spread. The initial entry was ~150. It broke this resistance on July 21, and on that day the low was 150.00. Since then, it has risen to ~175, as expected. Actually, sorry, the high today was 176.05, before falling back to 171.50. So it did overshoot by 1.05, shamefully I could not get that to the penny as well. Yes I am sarcastic, har har. I was not in on the long because of reasons previously stated. However, like I stated in my previous posts, I intend to short at resistance, so I am short today. My entry is 175.50, which is not bad considering I will likely be giving a $170+ stock 0.55 cents of room for my stop. Talk about risk to reward. So there is a convenient cop out for why some of these breakouts have worked, and that is: the market has rallied! Well, in the office that I trade in, there are some very good traders, and some very big traders who put on huge size. These are all very smart people. However, most of them have been SHORT everyday for the past week. And gotten their derrieres handed to them. My point is, no one knows when there will be a rally until it is right smack in your face. I am in these stocks because they broke through their levels, and I traded them accordingly. That is why I have been Long instead of wrong. But if that is still not convincing enough, this next trade I went over in detail on 7/17/09. Here were my exact words: Since 7/17/09, the SPY has rallied 4.48%, which is quite a substantial move. Meanwhile, SWHC has gone DOWN 2.87%, on, would you know it, very light volume. Look for it to pullback even further once the market starts to correct. ____________________________________ It doesn't take a guru to figure this stuff out. I can't tell the future, and I sure as hell don't know where stocks are headed. However, with a keen eye on where support and resistances are, you can identify entries and exits, often times to the PENNY. As I have demonstrated time and again in the very few samples in this thread. I am not here to show off on a message board. I am not here to yank your chain. I don't tell you trades after the fact, and then say, "Ah Ha! I was in that 4 weeks ago and it is up 100% now!" I wrote down a plan to trade each and every one of the stocks in this thread before I ever entered them. I am not here to hype stocks I currently own by saying, "Hey guyz! Get in XYZ before it goes to $200!!111" I have a reason and a purpose behind every single trade. I even map this out on charts, which takes up my own time and effort, instead of simply typing out something worthless like "get in ABC or you will be sorry!" I am not here to give stock tips. I am here to show you how to trade. This stuff doesn't benefit me whatsoever. I only hope to spark some discussion. After your whole life guessing and gambling in the market, you have a guy here giving you the map, and holding your hand along the way. Use it. Good luck.
Great work CXbby. I guarantee you there are plenty of lurkers reading this thread, myself included. What do you think about DVN and TGP? I particularly like TGP because of their nice dividend. If you look through the stock market thread, you will see very few posters who use TA. That probably explains the lack of visible (via posts) interest in this thread. Nevertheless, your insights are greatly appreciated.
Please keep up the good work, CXbby. I'm mad at myself for missing your earlier post on NVAX. That was a slam dunk trade.
CXbby XOM had trouble with resistance at $75 six weeks ago and it is possible that it will fail again at that price. It is currently $2 under that resistance. The volume on Friday and today has been the slowest in quite some time, so I have doubts about the depth of this rally. Granted, it is the <i>Dog Days of Summers</i>, so the low volume issue might be applicable to much of the market rather than unique and worrisome for XOM Bulls. <center> </center>
