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[Trading] Technical Analysis Journal

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by CXbby, Jul 11, 2009.

  1. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    There seems to be quite a few traders here, and others at least interested in stocks. Recently I've started an account for medium-long term trading, based solely on TA. I would like to keep a journal of some of the setups I am interested in, for future reference, and also for debate and discussion on here. I know many of you trade off TA as well, so please feel free to post what you are trading, or a nice setup that you are watching. Again, this thread is designed for discussion of technical setups. Fundamental factors such as earnings, P/E, book value, products, and industry take a back seat for purposes here. I am more interested in things like resistance, support, trend, volume, and price action. I will be updating this journal as I come up with more setups, as well as how I plan on trading them.

    With that said, here are a few I am currently looking at:




    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=rgr.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/rgr.jpg" border="0" alt="rgr"></a>


    This is a pretty cut and dry setup. It is an ascending pennant or triangle, whatever you want to call it. Resistance is at 13.0, with a strong close above it on above average volume being a successful breakout. Support is at 11.15 currently, but rising ever so slightly every day.

    Plan of action: I am currently Long 1/3 of my planned position size at 11.50(entered today). I plan on entering my full position if it reaches ~11.20. If it closes below 11.0 I plan on double covering for a short. If it closes above 13.0 I will enter the rest of my long position.
     
    2 people like this.
  2. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    This should have been a reverse head and shoulder for Gold. However recent action looks like the pattern seems to have failed. Also to note, head and shoulder formations are typically reversal patterns. Where as in this case, if we broke above 100, it would be a continuation pattern, which is rare. This might have contributed to its failure. In any case, now it is just a quadruple top(believe it or not) at ~100.

    Plan of action: Short from 97-100, double cover and go long with close above 100 on high volume.


    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=gld.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/gld.jpg" border="0" alt="gld"></a>
     
  3. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    This is a flu vaccine company who, as you can see, gapped up 100%+ in a day when swine flu first broke out. In the following week it retraced that whole move and filled the gap nicely(to the penny actually). Since then it has gapped again in early June, to the same area. Both of these gaps are what is giving it a nice support now around 2.3. I've been in this thing for 2 months now and my stop is at this support. Any close above 3.25 means its going much higher.


    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=nvax.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/nvax.jpg" border="0" alt="nvax"></a>
     
  4. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Contributing Member

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    You should read up on Behavioral Finance. Jegadeesh and Titman published some really good research on Profitability of Momentum Strategies -> i.e. going long winners, and shorting the losers.
     
  5. thelasik

    thelasik Contributing Member

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    Waiting for this to be merged in 3..2..1...

    :p
     
  6. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    This has been consolidating for 2 months now. Its not impossible to breakout to the upside, however with the markets rolling over, I am looking to short it through ~19.50. Increasing volume will confirm the breakdown.



    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=cma.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/cma.jpg" border="0" alt="cma"></a>
     
  7. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Heh he said he wouldn't. ;)
     
  8. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Same as CMA, short through support at 6.75.



    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=finl.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/finl.jpg" border="0" alt="finl"></a>
     
  9. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    CHLN has held its 20 day EMA throughout its advance from 1.5 to 6. Now its at it again, but this time it seems to be losing a little steam. I may go long a few shares here with a tight stop, but a break below the 20 EMA is an instant flip to short.



    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=chln.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/chln.jpg" border="0" alt="chln"></a>
     
  10. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    With the banks possibly correcting along with the overall market, Fifth Third is primed for a pull back. Although 1.0 was obviously oversold, a meteoric rise to 9 within 2 months may be a bit over-extended now. Supports is at 6.3. With a break below it, a correction measures to at least 4.0.




    <a href="http://s654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/?action=view&current=fitb.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i654.photobucket.com/albums/uu261/peenninja/fitb.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>
     
  11. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Ok that's all I got for now. Please post some setups that look promising to you.

    Also as a note: as you all know, with trading, nothing is guaranteed. The key is not in the setups but how you trade them. Money management is paramount. From personal experience, I can say a good trader usually has a hit ratio of about 30-40%, conservatively. This means 6-7 trades out of 10 are losers. So the key for profitability is for your winners to outpace your losers by at least 3:1.

    If you are risking 1% on a trade, try to make at least 3%. If you are chasing a trade(not good), and risking 10%, it better have a chance to run 30% to make it worth while.

    Above all else, the purposes of this thread is just to share ideas, and learn from each other. I have been trading in one from or another for almost 10 years now(from a very young and stupid age) and still just scratching the surface. Good luck to everyone.
     
  12. Mango

    Mango Contributing Member

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    <center>

    [​IMG]
    </center>

    <i>DJUSEN</i> is the underlying index for DIG -DUG. It is Cap weighted with XOM representing 31.09% and CVX representing 11.95%.

    DJUSEN

    After the close this past Thursday (7-9), CVX gave a mixed update on upcoming Quarterly results. CVX, COP and XOM were under selling pressure most of Friday and rebounded near the Close. Even with that selling pressure, the <i>DJUSEN</i> had only a minor loss for the day and stayed near the Horizontal Line at 400.

    <hr>

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    [​IMG]
    </center>

    I drew the Horizontal Line at 65 and it isn't that far from the March Low at 61.86.

    Yes, Energy related stocks are sensitive to Crude Oil prices, but for those contemplating purchases in that sector, the time might be near.

    <hr>

    Sometimes I have a nice Intraday setup for XOM, but Friday didn't fit the criteria, so will have to wait for a better day to grab a chart.
     
  13. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Thanks for the insight Mango. Here is a closer look at XOM.


    [​IMG]



    It looks to be a breakdown from a H&S through the neckline at 68. If that is the case, the pattern measures to a drop to ~61, completing a double bottom. It may have formed a doji on Friday, which means a possible bounce next week. However, I would short into this bounce especially as it approaches resistance near 68. A break above ~68 voids this scenario.
     
  14. Mango

    Mango Contributing Member

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    CXbby

    I thought about the potential Double Bottom on XOM, but it is close enough for what I do.

    <hr>

    Here is the promised writeup about Intraday action for XOM.

    As long as it isn't a strong trend day, XOM often exhibits a distinct behavior around certain price points.

    I divide the Chart into three regions with soft borders between the regions.

    The area up to XX.35 is the Lower Region with XX.36 to XX.75 the Middle Region and the area from XX.76 to XX.00 + 1 the Upper Region.
    <b>
    The usage of .35 and .75 is to show approximations because there are flexible ranges around those price points.
    </b>
    The boundaries between the regions are not rigid and will often appear as a <i>Tug of War</i> between evenly matched sides with the <i>Flag</i> in the middle shifting slightly back and forth in each direction.

    In the Chart below, XOM Opens above 65.00, but lacks strength to test going upwards, so it drifts down to 65.00 and finds no Support with <i>Stops</i> getting hit below 65.

    It drifts downward, but is well behaved and does a solid job of staying above 64.50. That suggests the possibility of testing upward again because of the <i>Lean</i> to the upside. If it had fallen through 64.50 and spent significant time around 64.40 - 64.35, then it would be considered weaker and suggest a possibility of dropping more into the 64.00 area.

    There are attempts to move upward as the price movement between 64.50 and 64.85 suggest. Even though there are failures to push back to 65.00, it is still well behaved and stays in a <i>Lean</i> mode to the Upside.

    Finally at approximately 11:30 (NY time), it makes a solid move and regains the opening area.

    The next 30 minutes around 65.00 are spent consolidating and then it starts to <i>Lean</i> to the Upside with the possibility of pushing to the 65.50 area.

    It punches through 65.35, but doesn't have enough strength to reach 65.50 and it falls back through 64.35 Even though it lacked strength at the moment to push through to 64.50, it still exhibits a <i>Lean</i> upwards by staying around 65.15 and definitely clear of 65.00.

    Finally, a strong move to 65.50 and a push to test the next boundary at 65.75. It is getting late in the day and there isn't enough time left for a meaningful test of 65.75 and a possible push to 66.00.

    It isn't a standalone method, but is useful when used with other techniques.

    <center>
    [​IMG]
    </center>
     
  15. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Thanks for the writeup Mango, informative stuff. Do you usually trade intraday like for XOM, or more swing?

    I rarely trade intraday anymore, especially individual stocks. More often I prefer taking a basket of stocks in a sector, oils, financials, reits etc. Either when they are trending, or when economic numbers come out. For more of a swing trade I definitely prefer individual stocks, like the charts I've posted in this thread. It just seems these patterns hold up more the longer it took to form. And intraday level can be broached and nothing happens. When a weekly level is broken, it may run for a few days. When it's a level formed over years, it can run for months, and the success rate seems higher.




    [​IMG]



    Ok so here's one more. Since the markets have been pretty flat the past two months after the run up, a lot of charts look like this. It is consolidating, forming a pattern the result of a tug of war. With the lower highs, and higher lows, this stock will pick a direction soon. Our job is to get in and ride the wave once it does. With the SPY possibly correcting to the downside, this could easily turn into a nice short. However it is better to be patient, and let this stock decide the trade for us.

    Entry for long: ~28.50

    Entry for short: ~25.50
     
  16. Mango

    Mango Contributing Member

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    I like intraday, but not opposed to Swing.

    Since XOM represents the largest percentage of SPX, it tends to move with the Market.

    Yes, they can move the Market in a direction different than XOM, but <i>they</i> have to work harder to do it.


    If one looks at the action for XOM today, there are some similarities to yesterday's Chart with an offset of 1.00 higher.

    Opened at 1.00 higher and stayed in the Opening Range for a bit longer and then moved downward. The LOD (Low of the Day) is 23.46 and the LOD of yesterday was 22.46. Didn't stay very long below the XX.50 level on either day and then <i>Leaned</i> back to the Upside.

    Since we ended last week (Pre OPEX) with a down - negative bias, expecting more Upside action this week. Might have some of the Upside action to unwind early next week, but will worry about it when it gets here.
     
    #16 Mango, Jul 14, 2009
    Last edited: Jul 14, 2009
  17. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    UPDATE:

    RGR has cleared 13.0 convincingly, however I am hesitant to add too much to my original position because the volume action leaves much to be desired. Nevertheless, this will be the first time it closes above 13.0 since 10/24/07. Another stock I would keep my eye on in the same sector is SWHC. There is no entry point at the moment, but as it developes one I will post a chart along with a plan to trade it.


    [​IMG]



    As for other stocks mentioned here, XOM has retraced to around 68 as expected. I am short today with an entry of 68.20. However I will have an extremely tight stop, as any further push above 68 nulls the bear case.

    JCP is at the breakout point currently. Any push higher on decent volume means it is time to enter.
     
  18. Qball

    Qball Contributing Member

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    Taking any requests? I am looking to short AXP (put at $25 for august).
     
  19. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    RE: Qazi


    The thing about TA is that there are only so many setups available. I would say >90% of the time, stocks in general move patternlessly. Swaying on the whims of buyers and sellers. It is that special <10% of the time where a discernible pattern reveals itself. These are the times you have an advantage on the market. Not because all of a sudden you know where it is going, but because tangible entry and exit points are presented. Instead of the entry and exit points made out of thin air >90% of the time.

    I guess what I am trying to say is...

    Yes I would love to take requests. But no, I see no discernible pattern in AXP to tell if it is going one way or another.

    ... but in a very roundabout way :p

    What advice I can give about AXP, and trading in general is this though: never short a stock because you think it has gone up too much, and never buy a stock because you think it has fallen too much. If you do, what you are assuming is the markets function based on REASON. This is false. The stock market is more moody and irrational than a girlfriend on her period. What goes up can always go up higher, and vice versa.

    In the long run, the market and stocks settles based on fundamentals. However, trading based on fundamentals and the "long run" is a dangerous proposition. Because when you are right, the market's irrationality may squeeze you out of your position anyways. And when you are wrong, you are too deep in the hole once it is proven.

    Instead, try to trade based on the aforementioned technical setups. This takes out the emotion, and you will never need to rationalize the markets. There are no right or wrongs, only courses of action.

    Good luck and hopefully this helps.
     
  20. Mr. Brightside

    Mr. Brightside Contributing Member

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    CXbby...if you have the time give me your brief opinion on FSLR, SHLD, POT and UNG. I am wanting to take positions in these, and was just wondering if you had the same opinion of them as I do. I'll post what direction I am taking these trades later.
     

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