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Trade Options for the 1st Pick

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by Spacemoth, Mar 26, 2014.

  1. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    I know this doesn't need its own thread, so just bury this post quickly and I will necromance it after the draft (but only if I'm right!). I wanted to speculate on what could/would happen in the first few picks, and then emphasize the following point: we DON'T have to trade the pick before we actually make it this year. We can still trade it after selecting the guy, a la Rivers/Manning.

    FACT #1: Although there is no consensus #1 for the Texans, there does seem to be a consensus #1 for the NFL.

    With the exception of Mike Mayock, everyone is coming around to the understanding that the highest ceiling of a non-QB, and the highest ceiling for a defensive player to come around in some time (Suh is the only guy who pops to mind in the past decade) belongs to Jadeveon Clowney. There just hasn't been anyone with his combination of size and speed except maybe a young Peppers or a young Mario Williams. Of course, there are better defensive ends out there, but they all maximized their skills to do so. If you listen to the scouts, Clowney already is more skilled than Williams and was double-teamed every single play this year in college. You can argue for various reasons that Clowney won't pan out, but it's harder to argue that another prospect is overtaking him in the consensus pre-draft rankings.

    FACT #2: Although Clowney is a classic 4-3 DE, there is universal agreement that the Texans would be able to find a way to incorporate him well if we did draft him.

    RAC traditionally uses his DE's as block occupiers to open up gaps for his linebackers. Obviously, JJ Watt will not be used in this manner. On a Texans squad, people seem to concede that Clowney would shift into a OLB pass rushing role were he to come here. This is good for us because it means that people will believe us when we tell them that we will be perfectly fine drafting and hanging on to Clowney.

    FACT #3: Strictly in terms of draft assets, only two teams are sounding like good fits in a potential trade for the #1.

    To get anything near fair value, we would have to deal with a team that has a.) a high first rounder this year, b.) a late first rounder or early second rounder this year, and c.) the willingness to part with other draft assets, either this year or in future years. The only two teams with the goods and the (rumored) desire to make this jump would be Cleveland (with 4, 26, and say a 3rd/4th this year) or Atlanta (with 6, 37, a 1st next year, and say a 4th this year or 3rd next year). Those are the two possibilities I can see at least. I don't think STL, JAX, or OAK would want to deal with us. Maybe we can convince the Cowboys to trade us their entire 2014 draft for the #1, just because they're that stupid, but for the most part that's it.

    Ok so here's the idea in principle: if we draft Clowney, we can still shop him around to CLE and ATL to see what they would be willing to pay for him. My guess is that they would still be willing to pay a lot. The traditional axiom is that the pick has more value than the player, just because it represents in the minds of the GM all the players available at that spot and not just the one that was taken (or, to put it better, in hindsight it represents the BEST player available at that pick, as you can always go back and make 'what if' statements after the fact). In this case, however, there should be enough of a demand for Clowney that we could still trade him to Atlanta, a team that is rumored to be coveting him in the Biblically sinful sense.

    Here would be an example of how we could use it to our advantage:
    1. Houston takes Clowney.
    2. STL takes Robinson/Matthews/Watkins
    3. JAX takes Bridgewater (I am convinced they will do this if he is available, local product, they hate the Texans, and the Texans will deserve to have hellfire and brimstone rain down on them if they pass on TB and he ends up being the real deal)
    4. CLE takes Manziel/Matthews/Watkins (Manziel because they suck and their franchise deserves to continue sucking if they really think that highly of Manziel)
    5. OAK takes Watkins/Robinson/Matthews (gotta make sure Schaub and McFadden don't, you know, die)
    6. ATL trades 6, 37, a 1st and 3rd next year for Clowney. With the #6 pick the Texans take Khalil Mack

    ATL feels like the team willing to make such a gamble. They did it with Julio Jones and it arguably paid off. Houston would be more than willing to incur delayed gratification by doubling up on 1sts and 3rds next year. Even if ATL rebounds and has a good year those picks will still be valuable.

    My final argument for such a plot on the part of the Texans proceeds as follows:

    INTIMATION #1: The Texans are hyping Clowney up above everybody else because they are aware of the situation, and they are doing their best to entice CLE/ATL to make this kind of a deal.

    Hell, they may already have the deal on the table, but they KNOW they don't have to make it until that #4 or #6 pick comes up. Maybe they actually like Clowney, and they want to make dead sure that the other player they love (Mack?) will still be there at #4/#6 before trading Clowney away for him. By all reports, Mack would be a better fit in this offense. Why not engage in some maneuvering to try to get him AND other pieces in exchange for the #1? As Bill Simmons would say, this makes too much sense, so Rick Smith probably hasn't thought about it yet.
     
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  2. josephnicks

    josephnicks Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  3. Remii

    Remii Member

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    People who say Clowney was double teamed every single play this past year in college is either lying to support their agenda or just haven't watched a lick of film.

    With that said, good luck on trading that pick. Charlie always says he couldn't trade the #1 pick when he had it and the Texans are probably in the same situation.
     
  4. Since75

    Since75 Member

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    I might get torched for even considering this much less suggesting it but here goes:

    Would anyone of you take Clowney or Manziel at #1 and then trade back up to #2 with the Rams and take the other player? Compensation for the Rams would be a 1st and 2nd rd picks in 2015.

    Texans keep all of the other 9 picks they will still have for this year's draft to fill in holes.

    Flame away!
     
  5. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Who is that? Very nice
     
  6. josephnicks

    josephnicks Member

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    no, just take clowney/ with fitzpatrick and/or 2nd-4th round qb this is probably still a 3-5 win team, even if watt and clowney are causing havoc. next year mariotta who everyone seems pretty high on and the possibility of winston coming out early forgoing his baseball season, if either of those guys are available where we pick next year we probably take them regardless of the 2nd round or later qb we took..
     
  7. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Jennifer Lawrence.
     
  8. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Damn thats right. For some reason kept thinking that was Brady's wife.
     
  9. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    interesting ...i used to think Clowney represented our best chance to trade out of the #1 spot, but now i'm starting to think that if a team like Jax, Minny, Cleveland, or Tenn. gets excited about Johnny, perhaps he's enticing enough for them to want to move up, and gives us the leverage we need.
     
  10. Remii

    Remii Member

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    Don't forget about Hundley... Hogan might make a jump. And Travis Wilson could be a sleeper.

    This is why I think if they don't take a quarterback in the 1st they definitely won't take one in the 2nd. Along with O'Brien saying there's not much separation between the group.
     
  11. endoftheworld

    endoftheworld Member

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    Tig ol Bitties

    Very very nice indeed:grin:
     
  12. DieHard Rocket

    DieHard Rocket Contributing Member

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    I would be ecstatic if we could trade down anywhere in the top 10 and get, say, an extra 2nd and a future 2nd to go along with it.

    But I just don't see it happening. I don't think there is enough separation between the QBs to make anyone desperate enough to jump up, and while Clowney is the most alluring, he has his own question marks.
     
  13. ric_flair

    ric_flair Member

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    I think teams like Jags,Browns, Cardinals, Vikings who dont have a clear starter and need to sell tickets could be interested in JFM. If they do start a bidding war for the number 1 spot, we have ESPN to thank.
     
  14. Raven

    Raven Member

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    Don't see it for a reason not mentioned, though I think it's a factor, these four players, Manziel, Bridgewater, Bortles, and Clowney all have question marks over them, and I think that scares teams away. Imagine trading up and selecting the wrong QB, or drafting Clowney and having him show up for training camp out of shape. No GM wants that on their resume.

    I think the Texans are going to draft Bortles, Clowney, or Manziel. That's not exactly a stretch, I know, and - at this time - I'll be happy with any of those three.
     
  15. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    The Falcons were 33-15 in the three years before JJo; 27-21 in three years since drafting him with the same number of playoff wins (0). And when the team suffered injuries last season, they were down four draft picks, including a first and a second round pick.

    If they're smart, ATL is unwilling to take another gamble.
     
  16. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    They beat Seattle in the playoffs last season.
     
  17. shaggylambda

    shaggylambda Member

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    She is so hot....that is all.....goodnight.
     
  18. Relentless

    Relentless Member

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    You must not know much about "tig ol bitties", because those aren't them.
     
  19. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Kate Upton
     
  20. hooroo

    hooroo Member

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    If it was possible I'd trade the 1st pick for Adrian Peterson plus either multiple Minny picks or one of their QBs as a stop-gap solution. Then trade Arian to fill other needs.
     

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