Try telling batting average means nothing to someone like Ichiro. I may be the first to say this, but I firmly believe it. Ichiro is an over-rated hitter. I say hitter, not player, he is a great player, very deserving of M.V.P. last year, great glove, range, arm, speed, you name it the guy has, but people labeling him as an All-Time great, is not close to the truth. Yes, he hits for the average, but who cares. O.B.P. tells everything about a player. Too Agressive, Patience, get base hits, draw the walk. Especially for the lead-off stand point, this is the most important stat. You leadoff you get on base no matter what way, and Ichiro is a good lead-off hitter, but he isn't the best in the game. Even Biggio last year had a OBP close to Ichiro's. I don't like to put down Ichiro, because he is a great player, but I don't want to hear talk about him being an All-time Great.
Your right Kidrock, Stats don't matter. I much rather have a guy on my team that hits .240, than .280. Get one thing straight reason the Astros need a CF'er is because Lance Berkman isn't one. The thing you said about speed, and how it fits the Twins game, yes most of those players are fast, but Berkman would be their 3 hole or 4 hole hitter, how many of those guys steal 40 bases. Another thing that kind of makes this stuff funny, if you knew who the Twins RF'er was, maybe you wouldn't have talked about the speed, and the turf, or whatever you said. Because Brian Buchannon is not an average runner, if you can tell me that Buchannon is a better runner, hitter, hell anything better than Berkman, than I'll agree with you.
No they aren't, they're on completely different levels. Berkman's advangage in offense is comparable to Hunter's advatage in defense, but offense is far more important. No they don't. The Twins are middle of the pack in stolen bases, and have outswiped the Astros by a whopping FOUR bases this year. The Twins Do NOT have an active running game this year, or if they do, they should change their cast of characters, cause they aren't being very effective at it. Torii Hunter stole a gargantuan Nine bases last year, massively dwarfing Berkman's Lilliputian Seven. I can see how that two base difference might bring the Twins running game to a massive halt. Lance Berkman is the better ball player, and if you don't think Minnesota would trade Hunter for Berkman in a heartbeat, you're wrong.
Especially for the lead-off stand point, this is the most important stat. You leadoff you get on base no matter what way, and Ichiro is a good lead-off hitter, but he isn't the best in the game. Two things -- what you say about his OBP is true last year, but this year all that has changed. He's drawn nearly as many walks already as he did last year. His OBP last year 38% - this year, it's 44%. He's leading the AL in both Batting Average AND On-Base Percentage this year. Second thing, one thing that makes him unique is his "clutchness". OK, some people don't believe baseball players can be clutch. However, last year, he led the AL in batting average with RISP. His batting average & OBP & OPS all increased from Bases-Empty to Runners On to Runners in Scoring Position to Bases Loaded. He's doing that *again* which hurts the "its just random chance" argument. 2002 Stats: Bases empty: .339 average, .837 OPS Runners on: .403, .994 Runners in Scoring Position: .488, 1.175 Bases Loaded: .714, 1.714 He's a better hitter this year than he was last, and he was pretty damn good last year. Ultimately, he makes that team go more than any other player on that team.
Great post Puedlfor. What I was trying to say in a post before that, but you had stats to back it up.
Mike Cameron definitely deserves to be included in that short list. I still find it hilarious that, during the Griffey trade talks w/ Seattle, Reds GM Jim Bowden refused to include Pokey Reese in the deal. Seattle had to "settle" for Cameron.
Who? We have nobody in the minors even remotely close to being ready. Someone mentioned Greg Miller earlier, he's hurt & hasn't pitched at all this year (may miss the entire year). It's not like starting pitching grows on trees; it's the single most valuable commodity in MLB (now relievers, that's another story). Why are you advocating reducing the strength of this team (starting pitching) to alleviate a weakness (OF defense) that has very, very little to do with the problems this team is having on the field (hitting, hitting, hitting, relief pitching)?
I believe he was using stats to bolster his opinion; the only thing you're using to back up your opinion, right or wrong, is more opinion. Who makes the more convincing argument?
Who? We have nobody in the minors even remotely close to being ready. Someone mentioned Greg Miller earlier, he's hurt & hasn't pitched at all this year (may miss the entire year). It's not like starting pitching grows on trees; it's the single most valuable commodity in MLB (now relievers, that's another story). Why are you advocating reducing the strength of this team (starting pitching) to alleviate a weakness (OF defense) that has very, very little to do with the problems this team is having on the field (hitting, hitting, hitting, relief pitching)? Couple of things: (1) Starting pitching isn't at a premium -- GOOD starting pitching is. You can always find a 5th starter for a couple of starts here and there. The Cardinals have been through 11 guys this year. They ran out of them so they went and got some dude off the Italian Olympic team and I think he's 3-0 for them. It's always possible to replace that #5 guy. Is it a downgrade from Redding? Absolutely, but that's how you make trades. You weaken one area to strengthen another. (2) The problems with this team are fairly widespread. Defensively, they are (or were, a couple of weeks ago -- I assume it hasn't changed) the *worst* team in baseball in terms of the % of balls in play they get to. As a team, their collective range is terrible. Hunter would shore up 2 positions defensively (CF and LF). 2nd base is still a problem, but there's no solution there. (3) Hunter also helps some of the hitting problems -- he instantly becomes our best hitter for average, 2nd best for power, and best in OBP (I think). (4) Ultimately, though, it's all about changing the makeup of the team. It gives the team more options by adding speed. It upgrades the defense. It really doesn't hurt us in any area except the #5/6 pitcher on the staff. In 1997, the Astros were scuffling offensively and pitching. They changed one thing which the players and management credited with their run to get the division title: replacing Gutierrez with Tim Bogar at SS. Sacrificing offense for defense. It made the pitching better and turned the team around (not that they were ever really really good) and won the division. Defense is always undervalued for some reason, but with a team that can consistently give up 2-4 runs a game (as the Astros do), defense can be the difference very often.
All of the Cards starters this year came from their system or off the IR. They tried the Smiths, a couple of relievers for spot starts, got a couple of guys back from injury (Williams, Stephenson) & after they ran out of options, they called up Simontacchi, who's defied all logic & historical evidence by pitching pretty well. The Stros have no-one as MLB ready as the guys the Cards called up. What happens when Shane's back acts up again? Miller won't be 100% when he comes back &, according to his docs, will pitch with pain in his neck for the rest of the year...what happens if he goes down again? What about next year, when Mlicki's gone (& maybe Shane too)? Looking to the future (& not a quick fix for this season) there's no way I'd trade Redding for Torii Hunter - Ward, sure & low-level minor leaguers (which the Twins probably won't want), sure. But no way do I trade a young starter with Redding's stuff for a 27 year-old CF with a career .769 OPS & 3:1 K:BB ratio. He had a HUGE April (1.085 OPS) but his May looks to be falling in line with his career #s (.844 OPS, .317 OBP). I don't really understand the "speed & flexability" argument either; he's not a basestealer (31 career steals & 18 CS).
All of the Cards starters this year came from their system or off the IR. They tried the Smiths, a couple of relievers for spot starts, got a couple of guys back from injury (Williams, Stephenson) & after they ran out of options, they called up Simontacchi, who's defied all logic & historical evidence by pitching pretty well. The Stros have no-one as MLB ready as the guys the Cards called up. If I read correctly, Simontacchi was not in their minor league system. He had to be added because they had no one else around. This could be misinformation, though. The Stros have no-one as MLB ready as the guys the Cards called up. I'm not so sure about that. We don't have Oswalts or Millers down there, but we have mediocre 5th pitchers. Wayne Franklin has been starting. CJ Nitkowski has started at the major league level. Yeah, they are scrubs, but its a 5th pitcher. None of the St. Louis callups were anything more than scrubs either. Looking to the future (& not a quick fix for this season) there's no way I'd trade Redding for Torii Hunter We just disagree here. To me, a Gold Glover centerfielder who can hit for avg and power is even more rare than a good-but-not-great pitcher. But no way do I trade a young starter with Redding's stuff for a 27 year-old CF with a career .769 OPS & 3:1 K:BB ratio. He had a HUGE April (1.085 OPS) but his May looks to be falling in line with his career #s (.844 OPS, .317 OBP). Torii Hunter doesn't have career numbers -- or not any that you can use. Every year of his career, his numbers have improved. You can't use career numbers when looking at a guy like that. I don't really understand the "speed & flexability" argument either; he's not a basestealer (31 career steals & 18 CS). He's not a base-stealer in Minnesota because he's not asked to be. He's their 3/4 hitter. In our lineup, he would be a #2 or 5/6/7 hitter. It's not that he steals bases, either, but that he adds speed to the lineup. Its similar to what Lugo does -- it distracts pitchers, adds 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home speed, etc. A couple of games ago, Ward had to be held at 1st and again at 3rd on hits that any player with decent speed can advance another base on. It was ridiculous and prevented an easy and obvious run from scoring, but that's the disadvantage of a lack of speed. A lot of what speed does is in terms of intangibles. You can't measure things like how a pitcher is distracted by a baserunner, or how many extra bases are gained running the basepaths, etc. But this team is very clearly demonstrating that there is much more to baseball than pure stats, because the stats across the board are relatively good (top half in scoring and pitching, I believe, outscoring their opponents by a good margin, etc).
The Twins traded away their best outfielder last year (Matt Lawton) and had it backfire, so I'm assuming they would be reluctant to do the same again. Plus, who in their right mind would give up anything better than a decent player for Hidalgo?
Why do you say that it has backfired? Lawton is currently hitting around .260 with 8 HRs. Rick Reed has been pitching adequately (5-2 4.45 ERA). Lawton's replacements (Buchannon and Mohr) are more than holding their own - batting around .280 between them (around .350 OBP).
Why do you say that it has backfired? Lawton is currently hitting around .260 with 8 HRs. Rick Reed has been pitching adequately (5-2 4.45 ERA). Lawton's replacements (Buchannon and Mohr) are more than holding their own - batting around .280 between them (around .350 OBP). I think it backfired last year. They were in the mix for the division around the time of that trade, I believe, and then collapsed after it. Could be wrong on that, though!
