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  1. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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  2. H.D.

    H.D. Member

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    In theory, if HOU gets the #1 pick, DET gets #2, then if OKC offers the right package (SGA + 2 FRP) to swap picks with HOU, then HOU could include DET in the trade and move back up and end up with #2 (Mobley) + SGA + FRP. I would prefer this to Cade, since I am a seller of Cade and I like Mobley a lot esp. given Wood's lack of rim protection.
     
    RudyTBag likes this.
  3. darksoul35

    darksoul35 Member

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    With this dumb ass owner he could be right.
     
  4. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member

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    Take the elite player and figure out the rest later.

    KPJ and Wood have not shown themselves to be good enough to build around. They can be complimentary pieces in the future If they fall in line.

    Still looking for the Alpha, and then we build our team from there.
     
  5. BigDog63

    BigDog63 Member

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    Don't disagree. As Reeko does point out correctly, potential value diminishes fairly significantly in the NBA draft. But, like everything else, all trades are possible...you just have to look at what you're giving up, and what you're getting back (something the Texans pretty much haven't been doing, but that's another story). So, if you are trading out of top 3, you need to get back something that makes it worthwhile. Keeping in mind that the NBA draft, like all drafts is a crapshoot, you figure out either what the value of that top 3 pick is likely to be..or the actual value of whom you think you might select, and then look at what the value being offered is, and whether that's worth it or not. I would put forward that you would need to think that the player you were then able to select still had significant value AND whatever else you received in trade would also have to have significant value. Usually you see NBA trades that are only small moves in position, for just this reason...the drop off in value if you drop much farther down is quite high. When the Mavs moved up to pick Luca, for example...I think that was one slot, and ATL still felt they were getting a very valuable pick (which they did). To move up from 5th to 3rd, they swapped those two picks and the Mavs gave up another first round pick. Both teams felt they got good value. But you need to factor in where that pick is likely to be. First round picks in the NBA aren't at all like first round picks in, say, the NFL. It's more like the first 5 NBA picks are the first round, the second five the second round, and so on. There are 44 or 45 positions in the NFL. There are at most 5 in the NBA, and really more like 2 or 3 these days (bigs, and smalls, with maybe PG a separate category). So, you get through the top picks at each position pretty quickly in the NBA. I would think for the Rockets to move down, they'd still need a high pick in return, AND a current player they either felt was quite promising, or a veteran they really liked. Hence upgrading 2 spots...the spot where they picked, and the new player they acquired. Might still not be worth it, depending on who they thought they could get with their current pick.
     
    eliefor3 likes this.
  6. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    No point in moving down from where the Heat are picking.
     
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  7. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Insider Newsletter™ 2X Diamond Member

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    Now we're trading down for inknown commodity?

    That smart?
     
  8. mightybosstone

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    I hate to be that guy, but Aldridge was a No. 2 overall pick.

    Overall I agree with what you're saying, though. Although you'd obviously rather have a higher draft pick, and the higher the pick, the more likely you're going to draft a better player, the draft is still 100% a crapshoot. Every player is a gamble.
     
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  9. mightybosstone

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    As others have said, I have no desire to see them move down in this draft. I certainly wouldn't want to move out of the top 4. The only way I would support that move is if they felt like they were in love with any of the top 5 guys and didn't have a huge preference where they were picking, if they were getting a pick in return that was still within the top 5 and if the trade netted them another lottery pick and/or major building block for the future.

    Like suppose Houston is drafting second and Orlando is drafting in that 3-5 range. If they offer you their pick in 3-5 on top of Chicago's pick in that 9-11 range, that's a trade you have to at least consider. Or if a team offered you a similar deal for a pick from 3-5 on top of a future unprotected first, and you liked your odds that the future first would be a higher lottery pick. Maybe Detroit might offer you a similar trade and then significantly reduce the restrictions on the future pick they owe the Rockets?

    Even then, I'd probably still prefer to keep that top 4 pick and take BPA. And if you have the No. 1 overall pick, you take Cade and don't think twice about it. Don't be the team that passed up on the undisputed most talented player in the draft. That's the kind of thing that haunts franchises and gets your GM fired.
     
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  10. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    Just looking back at the drafts from 2001 through 2018, I broke down how many players went to the All-Star and/or voted to an All-NBA team based on draft positions--1 through 5, 6 through 14, rest of the 1st round, and 2nd round. The odds are:

    You find an All-Star and/or All-NBA player with the first five picks: 41.1%
    You find an All-Star and/or All-NBA player within the 6-14 range: 14.2%
    You find an All-Star and/or All-NBA player in the rest of the 1st round (e.g. picks 15 through 30): 7.4%
    You find an All-Star and/or All-NBA player in the 2nd round: 2.4%

    Does an All-Star selection or All-NBA selection means that player is a franchise cornerstone? Absolutely not but I would think that's a good place to start considering he has to be, at the very least, one of the top 10-12 guys in his own conference before anyone can anoint him as a franchise cornerstone.

    In the case of the Rockets, where getting the 5th pick would mean they have to send it to OKC, picking in the first 4 selections raises the odds of finding an All-Star and/or All-NBA to 44.4%. This, of course, do not factor in years where the drafts were deep or when they were crappy but it still gives you a pretty decent indication and support that, yea, if you have a top 4 pick you have almost a coin flip chance of landing at least an All-Star. Of course it also means you could land a bust as well though looking at selections in the 6-14 range I'm sure we're in agreement that a 44.4% chance is better than trading down for multiple selections and hope that your 14.2% chance comes true.
     
    Sluball3, mikenm268, bumbum09 and 6 others like this.
  11. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    agree . But you can’t expect our top 4 pick (assuming we get the flip and keep the pick) to quickly be an alpha either .

    Even if you pick right it could still take years to break out. And he might never be a top 5 player .

    the whole “finding an alpha” mindset is correct , but flawed . I just don’t think you can know (outside of drafting lebron) but i don’t know what the actual league scouting has said about players in the past . It’s difficult as a bystander to separate the ESPN hype and what the league consensus is .

    there are so many different ways of getting a top player . Any pick can blossom into one and there’s trades and FA .

    gsw got curry and Klay outside of the top 5 and had other things break their way .

    Miami drafted one top 4 and then signed lebron .

    Look at how DAL/ LAL / Tor / NOP have fared after getting top picks . It’s all different situations .

    depends on the value we can get in a trade for 1-4 assuming we win the flip .

    draft isn’t until summer . Cade might get hurt,
    Another prospect may develop . Frankly we don’t even know how teams value the top of the class . Everyone thought Wiggins/Parker
    Was a great spot .

    im ok trading the pick for the right player or
    Combination of assets
     
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  12. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    /thread

    nothing left to discuss
     
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  13. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    To go even further, the odds of landing an All-Star/All-NBA (based on 18 years of draft data):

    with the 1st pick: 61%
    with the 2nd pick: 33%
    with the 3rd pick: 55%
    with the 4th pick: 27%
     
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  14. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    damn, u killed this thread again...it’s a murder scene

    mods might as well just lock this thing up

    no one is trying to see the Rockets trade away a Cade Cunningham for Davion Mitchell...the thought is just ridiculous
     
  15. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

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    so your data says its better to draft with the 3rd than with 2nd pick?
    lolololol
    my brain says its better to know how to draft than to have higher picks
     
    ApacheWarrior likes this.
  16. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    my data is based on actual drafts that have occurred so if you have a better way to analyze the draft I’m all ears
     
  17. Reeko

    Reeko Member
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    his data says u have a 40% chance of drafting a star with a pick in the top 5

    Idk why you’re laughing like u aren’t out here posting random tweets of the rare times somebody drafted a star like Jokic in the 2nd round or Jimmy Butler with the 30th pick like that’s supposed to be something convincing...
     
  18. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    one doesn’t even have to go back that far to see how many All-Stars have been drafted at #3:

    Doncic
    Tatum
    Jaylen Brown
    Embiid
    Harden
    Beal
     
    D-rock likes this.
  19. thekad

    thekad Member

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    Makes me miss the Morey era pre-Tilman where the idea of the Rockets doing something so stupid lived entirely in the delusional minds of posters like OP and hakeem94. Now we actually need to worry that this might happen.
     
    D-rock and Reeko like this.
  20. Landry's Tooth

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    I stand corrected... was thinking he went 6th... maybe im thinking of tyrus thomas...
     

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