27 days and counting. Astros playoff odds: Baseball reference 57.1% (low of 15.8% 5/8/24) Fangraphs 58.7% (low of 29.3% 6/18/24) Immediate needs: 1) healthy starting pitching 2) lineup depth, especially right handed and 1b.
Bunters. Go out get the 2 best bunters and blaze the trail. We would dynatsy up for o so long. Start up a bunting academy? Who wants to with me? Goooooo!!!
Team Need - Health Justin Verlander Kyle Tucker Lance McCullers Jr. Luis Garcia Jake Bloss Kendall Graveman
wRC+ since Jose Abreu was released: Alvarez 194 Altuve 172 Singleton 151 Salazar 137 Diaz 131 Bregman 113 Pena 104 Meyers 87 McCormick 83 Dubon 80 Loperfido 72 Cabbage 70 Obviously getting Tucker back will help, but maybe OF is more of a priority than 1b?
It’s been very frustrating following Singleton this season. He has had several meaningful stretches where he looks like a very good and possibly elite hitter. The last 3 weeks are a great example. If he could sustain even 90% of that production he’d be a stud. But because he hits the ball on the ground so much and isn’t a fast runner he is very prone to BABIP luck. To me I have seen enough to expect that he is not going to consistently get the launch angle needed to truly maximize the value of his power. And that makes him a roughly league average hitter who is slightly below average defensively at 1B. So he’s a AAAA guy teams love to be able to call up if their primary 1B gets hurt but he’s not a guy who should be hitting in the middle of the order on a contending team or even occupying one of the bench spots. I love him but I hope Houston upgrades.
The more Singleton plays the better he gets? SP and RP biggest need right now. Can't depend on Verlander or Lance making it back until we see them actually pitch innings. I don't suppose there's any chance of a different closer.
In games where he has had at least 3 consecutive starts: 4/11-13, 4/30-5/14, 5/16-29, 6/15-18, 6/26-7/7) 38 for 146 =.260 .366/.431=.797 14.5% BB/25% K When he hasn't: 11 for 56=.196 .262/.196=.458 8.2% BB/29.5% K
If there is another Mauricio Dubon, Marwin Gonzalez type on waivers, minor trade AAA player like Cabbage for another Pitcher maybe that is more helpful than trading away the Astros Top Prospects. It was hard enough to have Top Prospects 17-20 year olds. Keep them together and let them develop Team Chemistry in the Minor Leagues, eventually the Next Talented Group will be the Future Astros.
I don't there are more than a couple of SP on the market better than Luis Garcia. Getting Verlander, McCullers, and Bloss back to health should allow Brown, Blanco, and Arrighetti if he's still here to reduce innings. At least 1 and hopefully 2 of those guys must be back on the active roster when the 2nd half starts or else Brown must find a starter. Penn Murfee is a guy I am looking to return before the end of the regular season and become a leverage guy. Graveman could possibly return as well and is a very good 3rd-5th guy in the 'pen. Before then, I think the relief pitching is serviceable. Hader, Abreu, and Pressly are set in their spots and won't be replaced. Scott and Martinez have been good in the 6th-7th inning roles. The other 3 spots have been shuttled back and forth but there are plenty of arms to fill those spots. The offense is where I think this team needs to improve. Diaz, Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Alvarez, and Tucker are established starters who won't be replaced. Meyers is set but could potentially be upgraded. That leaves 1b, LF/DH, and potentially CF as options for improvement.
Playoff odds as of 7/9/2024 Average of baseball reference, fangraphs, and baseball Prospectus. Tier 1 will make playoffs but buying to improve championship odds: Phi 99.9%, LAD 99.7%, Bal 99.0%, NYY 98.1%, Cle 95.0%, Atl 92.8%, Mil 90.4%, Min 86.0% Tier 2 buyers because still a good chance: SD 66.2%, Hou 61.3%, Sea 49.8%, Bos 47.0%, St.L 46.0%, Tier 3 the next 3 weeks will tell: KC 33.7%, NYM 32.8%, Ari 30.5%, Cin 24.6%, Tier 4 Need to win a lot the next 3 weeks: SF 14.6%, Tex 14 3% Tier 5 all but eliminated, likely sellers TB 7.1%, Pit 6.8%, ChC 6.2%, Det 4.4%, TOR 3.3% Tier 6 It's over sell and hope for next year: Was 1.4%, LAA 0.1%, ChW 0.03%, Col 0.03%, Mia 0.03%, Oak 0.03%
