There is no way that Mo Taylor is worth a #4 pick. Not with his production, contract and injury history. Most of the #4s drafted in the last 6 or 7 years are considered better options than Mo is right now. Seeing as how the #4 is expected to be Bosh, I highly doubt that any team would want Taylor over him.
Even from production/need angle, it is possible that EG>Davis in the eyes of Raptors. They are a hopeless team in years to come, and they need a total rebuild and in that process they would prefer EG much more over Davis. Two teams have different needs and you got to be aware of that. And you will make a mistake to give in too much because you do see what the other side gains.
But you aren't considering that Davis is not likely to be starter material beyond another 2-3 years. I have a hard time giving up on potential (someoen that is only 20 and might be a late bloomer) for someone that probably won't be around when we are ready to contend for a ring.
This is where you are looking at this just on the surface. From production/need angle, the Raptors may indeed view EG as an upgrade over AD. Thats why they have the #4 pick though. They can just draft Bosh. So what incentive do they have to trade a starter for EG when they can just draft Bosh?
I'd then trade for #4 and draft Amare, and consider you a fool. Macbeth- by "washout" you don't mean Griffin's potential = Davis' current production, do you? I see the Rocket's need to get more veteran, but is a 14 year swing from 21 to 35 necessary? For me, keeping Rice, aging all these guys a year, signing a Kenny Anderson and then trading Moochie for a bag of half-eaten Doritos would suffice. Our championship window is still a few years away. PS- If the plan is to draft Bosh, why does Toronto want/need Griffin...? Neither of them are small forwards, and certainly not centers.
You guys don't get the point! You keep saying #4 pick will definitely be better than Taylor. That is not true. #4 pick is a bet, it could turn out to be a total bust. I am not saying Dunlevvy set a standard for #3 pick, but for GOD sake, realize that is a possibility! And I wonder how many of you were proposing trade Cat for last year's #2 or #3. where would that lead us?
The point is SJC, is that if AD were to be traded, don't you think Toronto would try to fill a need??? (i.e. if they draft Bosh, they have no need for EG and would probably rather trade him to somewhere where they can get something they need in return).
So you are saying that a team is better of trading for a player that a) Is not a top tier player at his position b) Has a max contract c) Is coming off a major injury and d) Has a history of drug problems than to keep a #4 pick with a ton of potential??? Mo was only a #14 pick when he was drafted. You really think that in hindsight, he would have been worthy of a #4 pick had people know how his career would pan out so far? If not, they why is he worth a #4 now?? Believe me, if Toronto was willing to trade us their #4 for Mo, the Rockets would pull the trigger in a heart beat. Toronto would laugh at CD if he called him with that proposal.
I agree about that. I just think that Macbeth makes two main mistakes when talking about these trades: 1) Bases Antonio Davis' value on good performance from the past when he is almost 35. 2) Doesn't sufficiently take the magnitude of Davis' contract into consideration. These two flaws in his logic lead to all the subsequently discussed trade proposals being too biased in Toronto's favor, in my opinion.
Definitely, and if it is only because that could never work cap-wise. Also, I agree that Mo is not even close to being worth a No. 4 straight up. As I said, the only possible trade I see is Mo, Moochie Norris (not Mobley, who would instantly be the best player in the deal and make it completely unbalanced, we can get a lot more for him) and Griffin for Davis, Peterson, No. 4. From our perspective, it would make sense because Mo's and Moochie's contracts run even longer than Davis'. From Toronto's perspective, it would make sense if they believe in Griffin's upside and if they believe Moochie and Mo could bring a positive contribution to their team right away and if they think (and I think they do) that Davis with his contract and his age is a huge risk to take, due to potential injuries and decline of skills. If Carter comes back healthy, I think that a starting lineup of PG Moochie Norris, SG Alvin Williams, SF Vince Carter, PF Maurice Taylor and C Jerome Williams would have a good chance to make the playoffs in the East. Alright, you can make that PG Alvin Williams, SG Lindsey Hunter, if you prefer . Or PG Alvin Williams, SG Vince Carter, SF Lamond Murray, PF Mo Taylor, C Jerome Williams. Not a bad team - in the East.
problem is you don't have hindsight and you don't always pick the right guy. So many guys are saying Raptors can draft Bosh and he will surely be more usable than Taylor. Who knows? That was the thinking regarding JW and Dunlevvy last year. Of course, there were plenty draft successes. But there is uncertainty and risk. Don't come here and assert a #4 pick, or this Bosh guy, will be more usable than Taylor. I used "may", and other posters used "defenitely" or "there is no way", etc. It is not that sure, allright?
Again, I don't think that the athletic differences between Griffin and Bosh are as great as you make them seem. If anyting, Griffin's athletic ability was more touted than Bosh's, many had him ranked as the number one overall prospect in the draft. Bosh is one of the guys vying for 4th. The Garnett comparison is nice, but its really something that one scout said, and other people likely repeated, rather than a consensus opinion Physically? Bosh and Griffin are about an inch apart and 5-10 lbs, and Griffin's leaping ability seemingly got a lot more play back in 01 than Bosh gets now, and the numbers seem to bear it out with his shotblocking. What is it that guy wrote, there are simply no words to describe Eddie's leaping ability? That is pretty high praise. The reason why there aren't any questions about Bosh? I think the answer to this is simple, he hasn't been in the news cycle long enough. It generally works like this, a hot new prospect comes along, the buzz is that so and so is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Then people get tired of him and "questions" start to surface and move on to the Next Big Thing. For example, again, let's flash back to 01, The consensus top player is Shane Battier, impressive pedigree, impressive everything. Eddie bursts on to the scene and has his time in the sun at the beginning of the season, Battier gets knocked because he's a senior who's already peaked. Then the highschoolers take over, Chandler and Curry are in the public eye all season because they aren't going to college, so people get to know them; soon people start whispering that Chandler is too skinny and Curry is to short. Then Kwame Brown decides he's not going to Florida and DeSagana Diop come onto the scene. Now they are the new superstars, Curry and Chanler are yesterday's news. In Diop's case, he fades quickly, but Kwame Brown's buzz lasts long enough. Ironically enough, guess who Kwame Brown is compared to athletically? (I got this off cc.net's archives) "NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett " Bosh? Pretty low profile guy, way, way, way lower than King James, Darko and Anthony, and even TJ Ford. He's been a hot name for about 2 or 3 weeks. The reason why the "questions" aren't there? he's at the peak of buzz right now, and the hype machine is working for him, That's why you hear things like "NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett" instead of things like "NBA Comparison: Kwame Brown"; just like it was doing for Griffin in January of 01. However, in Griffin's case it stopped before June, when College Freshman were deemed to old and High Schoolers were en vogue. EDIT: Speaking of funny Garnett comparisons, here's another! Jerome Moiso College: UCLA Height: 6'-10" Weight: 235 Class: Sophomore Birth Date: June 15, 1978 Age: 25 years, 9 days old HomeTown: Paris, France NBA Comparison: Kevin Garnett
Remember we are talking about a package deal here. A straight up trade of Taylor for #4 doesn't work out salary wise. The injury history and everything bad you said about him will be offset by the age, ridiculous contract, and declining performance of AD. Drug problem? How many young kids in the league don't have that? They just haven't got caught. For all I know, that #4 pick may be riding a motorcycle and ruin his career. I feel bad about JW, but it was totally his fault and you know young kids out of HS and college are more likely to do this.
It is funny how people can be so sure whether a player will succeed in NBA even before he plays one NBA game. I figure they are saying the same thing about JW and Dunlevvy last year as they do here about Bosh. No matter how well they played in college, NBA is totally different. Now you look at EG and view him as a total failure, but that is partially because you have a too high expection on these picks. Comparing EG to Bosh is not fair, because EG has lived in your reality world, the NBA, while Bosh has only lived in your fantasy land where everything seems much easier and prettier.
The Rockets are in a win now mode. Although many of us feel strongly about EG potential, potential doesn't make a playoff team or a champion. Davis large contract comes off the books soon. If the Rockets were to get PJ for MLE, isn't Davis the same type of bruiser with more offensive skillz. The Rockets need an enforcer to protect Yao, and Davis could fill that need. Rice is our only outside shooter, but he only plays a little less than half the season. Regardless, the Rockets only have so much that people are interested in, ala Kenny Thomas being traded and not Mo. Every team is not for every player, look at Donyell Marshall, Tracy McGrady, players getting on the right team to fulfill potential. All those people who want Francis to play the 2, get upset when they inquire about Eric Snow, using Eddie as trade bait. Let's let the offseason unfold and then past judgement.
What is funny, is that you seem to think that because draft picks bring unforseen production, that teams would be willing to give them up for a mediocre (at best) PF. Hindsight is 20/20. You dont give up a top 5 pick because that pick MIGHT not pan out. Its the same reason why we wouldn't trade our #1 last year for a middle of the road center even though many doubted Yao Ming. So EG was drafted #7 and has done little to warrant his high draft selection, so you really think he would be worthy of a #4??? It has nothing to do with his potential and more to do with what he has done. What he has done isnt worthy of a #4 pick. Period.
Again, you rely to much on the theory that draft picks sometimes don't pan out. Draft picks are a gamble, yes. But teams don't often trade a high lottery pick for other mediocre talent. Right now, neither Griffin or Taylor (or both together) is worth a #4 pick. If you were the Rockets and had the #4 pick, would you trade it for Donyell Marshall???
No, it doesn't, his contract still runs for another three years. No, P.J. is much better. Better fg %, more rebounds, better defender, everything better.
Again, this is a package deal we are talking about. I have said part of deal is the 3 year contract left for AD. Also, I suspect some teams may think EG is worth a trade for #4 pick if they had it.
