Yao had a great cultural/global impact that no Rocket will ever match again, but I can see Cade and one or two others at least having a shot to be as successful as Yao was on the court. When you consider durability and longevity, maybe even more successful.
Yeah, I thought he was saying there was a bucket with the teams names on balls and after a team hits a pick, they remove that team's ping pong balls, which would increase the remaining teams' odds. I was just saying they don't do that. There is no increase in odds through physical removal of any team's ping pong balls (there are no ping pong balls with teams' names on them). The numbers that represent the teams that already won a pick are still in play, and if they hit one of those numbers again, they just redraw with nothing "removed". In the end, probability (or its calculation/algorithm) would account for the teams who have already picked, like you said and I don't think tankathon.com is wrong. I'll be happy when this is all over and people can stop thinking about how complex the lottery has become... well, until next year.
I completely agree with what you said but I was trying to explain that the two methods are equivalent in terms of odds and probabilities. His method would not be practical, since they are not going to put 1000 ping pong balls in a machine and pick four out of those. Instead and completely equivalent would be what they do in reality which is use 14 ping-pong balls and draw 4 balls for each pick. Even if we follow his method we will obtain exactly the same results: Chances of Rockets #1= 140/1000= 14% Chances of Rockets #2= { (1-0.14) * 140/(1000-100)}. = 0.86 * 140/900 = 13.373% what he forgot to do was to multiply by 0.86 which is Rockets chances of not landing the first pick. the 100 subtracted above is the average of ping pong balls for the team that lands the first pick. so whether you subtract the ping pong balls for the team that won the first pick or redraw as they do it in reality would be equivalent. I would love for the Rockets to have bigger odds than 52.1% for top 4 but they don’t.
Yeah, the redraw is essentially stating the draw didn't happen or, in other words, that number that was drawn didn't really exist. So effectively, you've "subtracted" it. I guess we agree on that. Also agree that given Team A has picked, calculating the probability of Team B's pick would have to include "removing" Team A's probability as you stated. For anyone interested, I only have a layman's understanding of sadistics (statistics), but I always found it interesting, so I tried looking to see if anyone had tried explaining the theory behind it or some similar explanation and came across this site with accompanying Python code last night : https://squared2020.com/2017/09/30/how-nba-draft-lottery-probabilities-are-constructed/.
Give me Trey Murphy iii instead ..... The only player in this draft to have shooting splits of 50/40/90, throw in the fact that he's 6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan & great handles. If he were 19 instead of 21 he'd be at the top of the draft. He's played guard all his life , then grew 5 inches in single year. Honestly I don't want to use all three picks in this draft .... I want to push one to next years draft when high school seniors are available again - its essentially a double draft in terms of talent.
Will he be able to defend forwards and guards with his slight frame and bring much needed rebounding?
As a defender I think you can ask him to check 1-4 on most nights ..... Don't think he's great rebounder but that's partially due to being so perimeter oriented - 63% of his shots come from beyond the arc & he hits 43.3% of them. Really he's very comparable to Kispert , just a bit longer & a year younger..... Kispert's likely long gone by the time the Rockets second pick rolls around or even their first choice if they fail to land in the top 4. Getting a similar player to a guy expected to go top 10 in the mid 20's seems a win to me. Then you can push your other pick into next years draft. Disclaimer - I don't see a superstar here , what I see is a high level 3D wing.
Elite defense would definitely be nice, but at the very least league average defense would be a plus. We all know that unless they're the more defense-centric players ala Tony Allen's, Shane Battier's, Bruce Bowen's, Vernon Maxwell's of the world defense is an afterthought, most especially when it comes to rookies just trying to keep up with the more excelled pace of the game. Elite athleticism would be a good start to providing elite defense but it doesn't always mean that the mental make up will match that level of potential.
Mobley, Barnes, Jalen Johnson, Kai Jones were elite defenders in college. They have the physical tools to continue to be elite defenders in the pros.
I have come to peace with the uncertainty of not ending with a top 4 pick. It hurts me to see us ending up with number 5 on four consecutive occasions on tankathon. Tanking doesn't pay.
Yes, I want to know where we stand after the Portland and Miami victories. Bucks are losing their last game to the Bulls with a minute to go. @BimaThug
