I’ve said this in earlier posts Houston doesn’t get granted the number one pick unless it’s a generational player is Cade Hakeem or Yao? I didn’t think so
You guys don't have imagination. The most epic scenario is this: OKC gets the #1 and #5 picks and both players they draft turn out to be busts. And we use Miami's pick to draft a generational player.
LOL. I am taking Easy on focusing on the luck with those ping pong balls. There are other kinds of luck that might be more delicious.
Did you mean someone else with the second round picks... I figure you did since Scottie would be a likely top 10 and you had already mentioned him. I'm going to be honest, I'm not too adept to the International talent coming into this draft but I'm with you on building skill with length and athleticism. We've got quite a few guys on our roster now that are athletically gifted (KMJ, KPJ, Tate, Wood, etc.) so adding to that would definitely be a direction we should look towards going, so I'm with you there.
The media saying the Rockets have a 52% chance of getting top 4 pick is not true and they still hasn't picked up on it. After every pick, the team that secured the previous pick will be taken out of the pool thus the odds go up each time. . Worst case scenario by some miracle : #14 team (5 pp balls) gets 1st pick, #13 team (10 pp balls) gets the 2nd pick and #12 team (15 pp balls) gets the 3rd pick then the Rockets will have 140 pp balls out of a total of 970 (not 1000) for the 4th pick. This makes their odds at worst 56.72% If, however, the #2 and #3 teams (both with 140 pp balls) get the 1st and 2nd picks then that's 280 pp balls taken out. Add the #4 or #5 team getting the 3rd pick then that's another 115 pp balls out making the odds 140/605 for the 4th pick in the draft. Bringing the odds to 72.86% So the Rockets have a range of 56.72% to 72.86% chance of getting a top 4 pick. Taking the median we are looking close to a 64.5% chance. Much better than just a coin flip.
I posted this before. Here it is; I believe their calculations is correct. When calculating the odds for 2nd pick for example , don’t you have to factor in the Rockets not getting the first place which is 0.86 multiplied by 140 / (1000-100). That’s why getting second pick is slightly lower than first pick.
The 2nd Scottie I mentioned is Scottie Lewis, projected SRP. Uber athletic defensive demon. Compared to Kobe while in HS.
If I understand you correctly, no, this isn't what happens. From here : https://www.nba.com/knicks/nba-draft-lottery-explainer, There are 1000 combinations assigned to the teams + 1 unassigned dummy combo. They use ping pong balls to determine the winning combination for the picks. Once a combination hits, they keep drawing numbers. If a combination comes up that belongs to a team that already has "won" a pick or if the dummy combo pops up, they just repeat the draw. This preserves probability.
I wouldn't mind him with the last FRP that we have, but it might be better to move down and take him in the second round. @ApacheWarrior @D-rock
Yes, like Cameron Oliver, Scottie needs to be a better FT and 3-pt shooter. Oliver around 69% from the FT and Scottie Lewis around 67%. Many players I like that might or will go in the second round: Marcus Carr Isaiah Todd Chris Duarte Johnny Juzang (I'm very high on this player) Miles McBride Aaron Henry Bones Hyland (might take a chance on him) Filip Petrusev Ibou Dianko Badji (work on FT's) Quentin Grimes (some Klay Thompson traits at times) Trendon Watford (needs to up his FT's) Sandro Mamukelashvili Neemias Queta JaQuori McLaughlin Marcus Garrett Tyson Etienne And of course Bassey Roko Prkacin Marcus Bagley If any of them slip into the second round. I'm sure I'm missing some that entered the draft recently. Throw Scottie Lewis in there as well. Good year to have a second round pick or two or five. What the heck, we are a rebuilding project anyway. Might as well be that full fledge day care I was trying to avoid. Tilman "seems" to be happy with losing, lol
Yeah, he's got legit potential to be a sleeper. The one thing that would help us in this draft (position flexibility wise) would be for us to end up with the #2 overall pick, not that I would turn down Cade and the #1 pick, but having such a versatile C like Mobley and loading up on uber skilled/athletic guards/wings will help balance out our team. I really hope we get the number one pick but I really wouldn't be mad sliding down to #2.... if we get lower than number two we'll definitely have to consider one of; Suggs, Green, or Kuminga which would mean we end up passing on some of these guards with potential. Like I said, I'm with you on loading our squad up with extremely athletically players with length.... shooting and playmaking skills shouldn't be overlooked but you just can't teach the former two skillsets. Not sure how we'll get back into the second round for a chance of nabbing one of these guys, especially with cheap Tillman not wanting to pay for draft picks. I'm also not sure who would trade for Bradley in exchange for their second rounder.
I see the difference in both methods but they are essentially the same. They do it this way because they are 14 ping-pong balls and they draw 4 balls for each pick and Rockets for example has 140 combination of the total of 1001 combination. That’s not the problem with his calculation. The problem is that he forgot to multiply each probability of the rockets pick by the probability of the Rockets not getting the picks before. For instance, for the probability of the Rockets getting the second pick, you have to factor in the probability of the Rockets not getting the first pick. and the same goes for the third pick, you you have to factor in the probability of the Rockets not getting the first or the second pick.
If we fall out of the top 4 range, then it might be useful to package the Miami and Portland picks to grab a slider with upside. If that doesn't work, then package either Tate or KJM with the 19th pick. I hope we will luck out on Jalen Johnson if we miss out on the top 4 players.
After we get that top four pick, we should package both picks..whatever else...and move up to grab either Kispert or Butler.
I would prefer Mitchell over Kispert and Butler for the remaining picks. I won't give up Tate for these players. KJM and one of the remaining picks is okay with me for Mitchell. Kispert can shoot lights out, but he can't stop anyone on defense. I don't want to go after him. Butler will probably be available for the Miami pick. Let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.
