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Top 4 pick or Bust!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Trackwell, Jan 17, 2021.

  1. ROXTXIA

    ROXTXIA Contributing Member

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    This was succinctly put.

    AND, regardless, we get Portland’s pick this year. Unless they fall apart now, which I don’t see.
     
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  2. thedude077

    thedude077 Member

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    I hope the Rockets do get a top 4 pick. I'll be happy if they draft Cade Cunningham or Jalen Suggs.
     
  3. deb4rockets

    deb4rockets Glad Trump's gone
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    Is this still correct as far as our draft picks?

    Screenshot_20210403-223924~3.png
     
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  4. DaneB

    DaneB Member

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    Still can’t believe that we we didn’t do a top 5 protected pick swap. On tankathon I think I’ve probably hit fifth pick most often.
     
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  5. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Imagine the horror on lotto night when we fall out of the top 4 and OKC gets our pick. Would be nightmarish. I need to train myself to expect that result.
     
  6. Jontro

    Jontro Member

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    or landing the 2nd and have tillmen ship it out for monies saving
     
  7. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    At the time of that trade , you had two league MVP's on the roster ..... if it didn't work you still had Harden ,
    With Harden on the team , those swaps are meaningless. I don't think anyone expected him to leave this franchise at that point in time.


    You have to understand that the league changed the lotto rules AFTER that trade went down.
    At the time of the trade , the team with the worst record could fall no lower than #4 which guaranteed they could keep the pick if the worst were to happen.


    Now the team with the worst record can fall as far as #5 and the second worst #6 , third worst #7.


    Currently the Rockets are 2nd worst which means they fall somewhere between 1 and 6.

    Four of those outcomes are great .... the other two are turrubl.

    They really need to end up with the worst record as it limits the potential of falling outside the top 4 by removing 1 of the potential negative outcomes.
    Finishing worst means they have 4 positive outcomes and 1 negative outcome on draft night.


    Minnesota is in an even less enviable situation ..... they are only protected top 3.
     
  8. DaneB

    DaneB Member

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    That’s not true. The changes were approved back in 2017...

    https://www.nba.com/news/nba-board-governors-approves-changes-draft-lottery-system
     
  9. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    No it’s actually to our best benefit to be the 3rd worse. This ensures the same odds of top 4 as anyone but then your downside is that you are more likely to pick 6th or 7th which makes the picks we give OKC less valuable.
     
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  10. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    Suggs looks worth it
     
  11. COMPAQ CENTER

    COMPAQ CENTER Member

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    I like your analysis but the worst three records Will have exactly 52.1% chance of being in the top four picks.

    so as long as the Rockets are among three worst teams they will have the same odds. http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
     
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  12. Haymitch

    Haymitch Contributing Member

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    That's actually my dream scenario
     
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  13. topfive

    topfive CF OG
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    The Blazers are currently rocking the league's worst defense. A losing streak could happen.
     
  14. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    What this dude said!
     
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  15. csc177

    csc177 Member

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    Okay I’m on the Jalen Suggs train now.
     
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  16. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    Me 2
     
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  17. DaneB

    DaneB Member

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    I was thinking it would be nightmarish to give OKC our pick if it falls outside the top 4, but maybe it doesn’t matter as much if we give up that pick. You go through picks 6 or 7...the closest to a franchise player I can see is Dame in 2012 and Curry in 2009. The 5th pick has Cousins in 2010...Trae Young in 2018...I think the biggest damn shame will be if we’re this bad and we can’t get in the top 4 at all. At least we weren’t so dumb that we gave unprotected picks away...I mean we had a pretty decent shot to win the championship if it wasn’t for the Lakers last year with Westbrook at full health...Then we completely fell apart this year...we’re really rolling the dice with the Nets trade, but if they really suck, it will be an absolute nightmare for them. If that were to happen I think we would all be like “THATS WHAT YOU GET!! HAHAHA”
     
  18. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Not really.

    2021
    1st rd:
    Own pick if 1-4, otherwise less favourable of MIA or OKC picks

    POR pick if not lottery (21 currently)

    MIL pick if not 1-9 (swap with our 2nd rd pick - currently 26)

    2nd rd
    None (swapped with MIL)

    Other 2021 relevant info
    DET 1st rd pick 1-16 protected, will not convey. Protections begin reducing in 2024 thru 2027. Might be waiting a while on this one.
    PHI 2nd rd pick 2021 going to NYK
    Rights to swap any of the resulting 3 1sts originally detailed with BKN - most likely comes down to us receiving the pick from whomever is worse out of MIL or BKN. Could be just a place or 2 in it
     
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  19. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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    Rockets should purchase a SRP for this draft, it's going to be deep.

    Bones Hyland is another long range sharpshooter I really like.
     
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  20. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    I like Hyland. I think the Rockets should even consider using the last 1st round pick on him. He can shoot, drive and he's tough.
     
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