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Top 4 pick or Bust!

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Trackwell, Jan 17, 2021.

  1. blahblehblah

    blahblehblah Member

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    Are the rockets even bad enough to be one of the worst teams in the league?

    No? Maybe?

    Assuming tucker, wall, gordon, woods, oladipo plays 65%-85% of the games, I just don't think they'll be a bottom 3 or 4 team.

    If course the rockets could fix this by trading away some of them. Tucker and oladipo will be easy enough to unload. Both are at least slightly positive assets.

    Gordon & wall however are both negative assets that would require draft assets attached to unload.

    The rockets need to trade oladipo and tucker if they want to "tank.". Not sure how bad or good a team with wall, Gordon and woods etc will be tho... Each have something to prove and are talented players. It wouldn't surprise me if they manage to keep the rockets semi competitive OR just fail and flat out suck.
     
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  2. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    This is for sure
    Going to happen. I would trade wood as well
     
  3. D-rock

    D-rock Member

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  4. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    Last night was no Bueno...The only good thing I saw yesterday is maybe that cousins trade value went up
     
  5. Trackwell

    Trackwell Member

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    We are though... It’s going to be us Detroit and Minnesota
     
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  6. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Looking at the schedule, Rockets are about to go on a run next 15 games with full squad back. This thread about to fall off first page real quick.
     
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  7. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    EG ' s trade value also increased a bit with this win over the Mavs.
     
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  8. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    Minnesota has no reason to tank this year. GSW owns their pick
     
  9. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    We should trade Dipo for sure and Gordan, Tucker if we can for future assets. I have changed my mind on the tank. Even without them we could squeeze into the playoffs or if not and get the 1-4 pick. If not, judging from Miami and OKC we wouldn’t be swapping into a tremendously worst pick. MIami may not even make the playoffs unless we give them Dipo.
     
  10. OpportunityCost

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    Even if we did get a top 4 pick, it's not guaranteed that player will develop into a franchise cornerstone, and how long would it take them to develop into that player. Harden wasn't that player right out of college. So how long would the waiting go on for? Then if he does develop into that player, what if he leaves us after his initial contract is up?
     
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  11. jiggyfly

    jiggyfly Member

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    It's top 3 protected.
     
  12. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    So trade our young prospect that we know can play at an NBA level for a chance at a young prospect that might be able to play at an NBA level?

    Next year, do we then trade the guy we drafted to maybe do it all over again?
     
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  13. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    If you had Wood with 20 + 10 wouldn't you trade him for a dude who can get you 18 and 8 and play good Defense?

    You move up.

    There is a thing called more upside.

    Wood is probably the last guy you should move given his contract but the other guys.
     
  14. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    My bad but didn’t know that. It is unprotected in 22 though. I just don’t think we have anything to lose by trading Dipo, Gordan, Tucker if you get positive assets and expiring contracts for them. Even if we are still to o good to get a 1-4 pick it gives all the young guys minutes and gains us cap space. How do buyouts work from a cap perspective? Are they just a one year hit on your cap?
     
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  15. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Nope, I wouldn't trade him because of his age. I'm trying to build a team that competes not a team that just develops talent for other teams.

    I mean, we traded Capela for a guy that plays defense and that has not been one of our better moves.
     
  16. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    Here is a break down of odds for each seed in the lottery:

    Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
    1 140 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 47.86% - - - - - - - - -
    2 140 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 27.84% 20.02% - - - - - - - -
    3 140 14.00% 13.42% 12.75% 11.97% 14.84% 26.00% 7.02% - - - - - - -
    4 125 12.50% 12.23% 11.89% 11.46% 7.24% 25.74% 16.74% 2.19% - - - - - -
    5 105 10.50% 10.54% 10.56% 10.53% 2.22% 19.61% 26.74% 8.68% 0.62% - - - - -
    6 90 9.00% 9.20% 9.41% 9.62% - 8.62% 29.77% 20.55% 3.68% 0.15% - - - -
    7 75 7.50% 7.80% 8.14% 8.52% - - 19.72% 34.11% 12.88% 1.30% 0.03% - - -
    8 60 6.00% 6.34% 6.74% 7.22% - - - 34.47% 32.10% 6.75% 0.38% <0.01% - -
    9 45 4.50% 4.83% 5.23% 5.71% - - - - 50.72% 25.90% 3.01% 0.09% <0.01% -
    10 30 3.00% 3.27% 3.60% 4.01% - - - - - 65.90% 18.99% 1.20% 0.02% <0.01%
    11 20 2.00% 2.20% 2.45% 2.76% - - - - - - 77.59% 12.60% 0.40% <0.01%
    12 15 1.50% 1.66% 1.86% 2.10% - - - - - - - 86.10% 6.70% 0.07%
    13 10 1.00% 1.11% 1.25% 1.43% - - - - - - - - 92.88% 2.34%
    14 5 0.50% 0.56% 0.63% 0.72% - - - - - - - - - 97.59%

    From this perspective it seems being one of the six worst teams give you pretty decent odds to get in the top 4.
     
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  17. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I would for Wiseman.

    Wiseman is 19 and is going to average 12-13 and 6-8 already.

    Basically what Wood did average with the Pistons last year and Chris is going to be 26 this year.

    So if Wiseman could average close to 18 and 9 when he is 20 or 21, that's 4 years difference.

    And he is already stronger than Wood with 25.

    The reason I say it because there are more and more Porzingises and Markannens popping up, it's unreal.

    And probably more Dirks, Duncans and KGs as well.

    Bigs like to dribble and score.

    The next evolution is a 6'10- 6'11 Luka.
    Get on the train!
     
    #377 daywalker02, Jan 24, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2021
  18. JayGoogle

    JayGoogle Member

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    Well trading him straight up for Wiseman is something you can consider, a gamble you can take.

    But trading him for a chance to get Wiseman? I couldn't do that. The poster wants to trade Wood so that we have a chance at landing in the top 4. this is a HUGE risk to take because there is a chance that even with the worst record we lose the coin flip and then we've lost Wood, we've lost our pick, and we're sitting on our team with no all-star potential young player.

    That is a huge gamble to take on a coin flip to draft a player with unknown value.
     
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  19. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    You are stuck in contender mode mentally, that's the problem.

    You salivate and go after even more talented guys.

    I mean I had enough of 2nd round and 3rd round exits with Harden because there was little wiggle room and growth.

    Now it is the time to go big.

    It is not the time to grow content after what? 2 weeks after Harden exit?

    Time to get a defensive monster who can make a bucket!

    That was just an example. Sheesh

    I hate Elon Musk, but that dude is constantly after Cara Delevigne and Amber Heard.

    You got to go after them but preferably smarter ones as well lulz.
     
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  20. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Really wish we could skip the whole let's feel good about ourselves and screw it, we will win without Harden phase.

    Your goals for this season HAVE to be get best value possible for VO and PJ, as well as good odds to land a top 4 pick. Anything else just sets you back a year.
     
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