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Top 30 free agents, 2014 offseason

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by rogower, Sep 15, 2013.

  1. rogower

    rogower Member

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    With the talk of what to do about Chandler Parsons, and how much money he is liable to get if he is allowed to become a restricted free agent next summer, I decided to put together a list of the top 30 available free agents in the 2014 offseason.

    The key term here is "available." The majority of such lists includes everybody. I find this annoying. Some players simply are not going anywhere; they'll re-sign with their current teams because the logic of the collective bargaining agreement dictates that they'll do so. Thus, when fans look at such lists, they are wowed by the star power, and fail to distinguish between guys who are theoretically available vs. guys who are ACTUALLY available.

    I consider the following guys to be, for all intents and purposes, unavailable:

    Tim Duncan
    Dirk Nowitzki
    Carmelo Anthony
    Andrew Bogut
    Paul George
    DeMarcus Cousins
    Greg Monroe
    Derrick Favors
    Gordon Hayward
    Eric Bledsoe

    Carmelo pretty much has to live in either NYC or LA to placate his annoying wife. Neither the Clippers or Nets will have cap space. The Lakers will have cap space but that organization is a disaster and nobody wants Kobe as a teammate.

    Obviously Duncan and Nowitzki will play their entire careers with their current teams.

    If Bogut is relatively injury-free then the Warriors will bring him back, and he'll want to re-sign.

    The other guys' teams will match any offer sheet, even up to the max. This is not to say that, for example, Cousins doesn't get traded before the February trade deadline, but it won't matter, because whoever trades for him will match any offer sheet.

    Then there is the special case of Andrew Bynum and the team option on his contract. I am not going to include him on my list because either a) he has a strong season, in which case the Cavs exercise their option or b) he misses a ton of games due to injuries, in which case he is damaged goods and will not be a desirable player. Bynum's career may be closer to the end than you think.

    Next, we have the special cases of Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. 100% chance that Lebron and Bosh opt out and hit free agency, although they are highly likely to re-sign, barring some unforeseen circumstances. If Wade is healthy and productive, he'll also opt out and re-sign. These guys are living the dream, why screw that up? I am, however, assuming that all goes well in Miami this season; if bad/unforeseen stuff happens, look out.

    Since all of these guys are highly likely to stay put, we can now rank the top 30 free agents, the REAL list, containing only guys who are truly available:

    1 Pau Gasol
    2 Chandler Parsons (RFA, if he is allowed to become RFA)
    3 Luol Deng
    4 Marcin Gortat
    5 Paul Pierce
    6 Thabo Sefolosha
    7 Andrei Kirilenko
    8 Shawn Marion
    9 Kyle Lowry
    10 Ed Davis (RFA)
    11 Mario Chalmers
    12 Ray Allen
    13 Shane Battier
    14 Al-Farouq Aminu
    15 Evan Turner (RFA)
    16 Emeka Okafor
    17 Danny Granger
    18 Jordan Hill
    19 Avery Bradley
    20 Kris Humphries
    21 Robin Lopez
    22 Patrick Patterson (RFA)
    23 Jameer Nelson
    24 Chris Anderson
    25 Brandon Rush
    26 Ron Artest
    27 Amir Johnson
    28 Spencer Hawes
    29 Lavoy Allen
    30 Matt Bonner

    We can quibble about these rankings ("Patrick Patterson should be higher than Kris Humphries!", etc.) but my point here is that Parsons is #2 on this list, and if Gasol is looking old in 2013-14, then Parsons is #1! In other words, teams with max cap space--and there will be quite a few--may well consider offering Parsons a deal at or near the max.

    Which returns us to an ongoing discussion: what to do with Chandler Parsons? Since he is such an obvious candidate to be grossly overpaid due to market conditions, I still say that the wise move is to auction him off on draft day 2014 (or in the days leading up to the draft, more likely) for the highest pick you can get in what appears to be a stacked draft.
     
  2. hikanoo49

    hikanoo49 Member

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    Mchale could just limit his mins so his stats arent that great this year which will suppress his value

    Once he signs w us, then we give him more minutes and ops again

    We just have him camp out in the corner this year to bomb 3s maybe 25 mins a game
     
  3. hardenisaboss

    hardenisaboss Member

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    just resign him to 4 year 40 million if he continues making strides. lock the Harden, Dwight and Parsons core and fill out the rest of the team with cheap contracts. When Asik and Lin's contracts are up let Asik walk or trade him before for picks and either sign Lin for 5-6 million or let him walk. This is what I would do. 2 max contracts and a mid size contract is what the new CBA allows teams to do.
     
  4. Rox>Mavs

    Rox>Mavs Contributing Member

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    Thanks for the list.....would you be able to do a similar list for 2015 if the consideration is to let him go into UFA and letting him play out the remainder of his contract? We'd still have the edge with his bird rights.
     
  5. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Maybe some other time. My point in creating this list was to demonstrate that Parsons is going to cost a boatload of money to re-sign, and of the wisdom in selling high, for the best draft pick (or package of picks) that you can possibly get. You draft his (presumably higher upside, and definitely much cheaper) replacement, or maybe you draft a player who plays a different position and use your cap space (assuming Houston is able to create cap space by trading Jeremy Lin and/or Omer Asik) for a cheaper replacement such as Luol Deng, Andrei Kirilenko, or Shawn Marion. Or maybe you package the pick received for Parsons with other picks and assets (e.g., Donatas Motiejunas, Terrence Jones) for a disgruntled star (e.g., Kevin Love). Any of these scenarios seems better to me than matching a monster four year, $50+ mil offer sheet for a good but not great player like Parsons.
     
  6. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    If Parsons makes himself into a max salary player, then that would mean our third best player is a max player. Which means we already have a big three, and we should just roll with it and extend Parsons at whatever the cost.

    Pretty simple.
     
  7. Play07

    Play07 Member

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    kinda strange to see Patrick Patterson on that list, hoping dmo or jones can step up but just knowing Patterson was knocking down that mid range shot highest percentage on team & 2nd with the corner three under parsons stills confuses me we let him go. He could have been that player we needed to make it out the west but we will see soon. WEST & SCOLA are right around the corner twice in preseason so hope dmo & jones are ready to show what they have
     
  8. jocar

    jocar Member

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    Auction him off in hopes of acquiring a versatile glue guy like... Parsons? "Teams won’t trade significant value for a young, Fegan-controlled player entering unrestricted free agency. The risk is too high." -Bima. I think he's part of the Howard/Harden team foundation (unless that 3rd star requires him in a trade), and they will pay him $40M for 4 years or take a risk at UFA before they trade him for some rookie prospect. Lin and/or Asik will be moved before him. We'd still have Beverley/Canaan/Brooks and Howard/Smith/Camby. Trade the SF for a pick... and you have a 31 yr old Garcia and Casspi and a rookie?
    [​IMG]
     
  9. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    By the way, Lowry should be in the top 5 or 6 players on this list, and I actually don't think Parsons is #1 unless he takes another big step forward in the offseason (in which case he's a borderline all star).

    Parsons should be just behind Lowry, so probably around 6 or 7.
     
  10. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Not simple at all. The market constantly leads to irrational results, some players are obtained for what turn out to be bargain deals, others wind up getting grossly overpaid. Just because a guy winds up with a max or near max contract does not mean that he is really going to earn that money. What is the more sensible, bang-for-your-buck contract: Chandler Parsons at four years, $50+ mil or Luol Deng for three years, $25 mil? Or Kirilenko at three years, $20 mil? And be sure to factor in that Houston could (if it plays its cards right) Deng or Kirilenko for half Parsons' price AND a really good young (and cheap) player via a mid-lottery pick in the stacked 2014 draft, instead of a very expensive Chandler Parsons.
     
  11. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Indiana traded the pick used to draft Kawhi Leonard for George Hill just one year before Hill hit free agency. Toronto traded the #12 pick in the draft for Kyle Lowry. Minnesota traded a pick in the mid-teens for Chase Budinger. None of these players were deemed as desirable as Parsons will be next spring. I completely disagree. And Parsons is going to cost more than $40 mil. AND a good player drafted at around #10 overall provides much more value (bang for your buck) than Parsons at $50+ mil.

    Morey has created a juggernaut by focusing on value, by taking a completely unsentimental approach to player valuation. So why abandon this approach?
     
  12. jocar

    jocar Member

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    You abandon this approach because we now have a 4-5 year window with Howard and Harden. It's no longer a time to prospect or develop. Stick with known commodities or upgrade them.
     
  13. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    What makes you think the market is going to result in such an irrational result for Parsons? The only place I see him being rated SO highly is here in the GARM.
     
  14. RocketsJumer

    RocketsJumer Member

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    I love Parsons, but there is no way teams are going to offer him a max. No way. If the Rockets do elect to make him an RFA then the range of salary I expect him to get would be 4 years, 32 - 38 million and that's stretching it. Most likely in the 8 million/year, which would be comparable to what similar player.
     
  15. rogower

    rogower Member

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    There are many, many examples of a player hitting free agency under the right conditions and hitting the jackpot, not just in the NBA but in all pro sports. If we focus just on the NBA, Parsons fits the profile of such players:

    1 Relatively young, thus, he is presumed to have "upside"
    2 Expected to remain highly productive for the length of his contract
    3 A key player on a championship contender

    I pointed out recently that Horace Grant was, for a period of time, the highest-paid player in the entire NBA. Juwan Howard is another player who fits this profile; he received a massive contract in free agency. There are many, many other examples.

    Take another look at my list of players who figure to be ACTUALLY obtainable. Now try to look at these players objectively, rather than as a Rockets fan. Even when you look at the list objectively, it's difficult to conclude that Parsons should be any lower than #2 on this list. If/when there is a fairly large number of teams with cap space, determined to spend that cap space, logic and past experience dictate that Parsons will hit the jackpot. Look at the money that Josh Smith got this past summer. Parsons is going to hit free agency at a younger age and does not come with Smith's baggage; in fact, Parsons is perceived to be the consummate teammate, a leader, even.
     
  16. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    If fegan wasn't his agent then I would either not care if we didn't sign cp25 or trade him because I trust morey, however now joining forces with Morey has changed my attitude and I feel morey could f*** up future signings if he don't pay parsons, I could just Imagine Him hiding a grudge against Morey..

    In fegan I trust
     
  17. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    In all fairness, that quote is properly attributable to Ben (a/k/a The Cat) from his recent blog entry.


    Also, as for the OP's list, don't be shocked if Evan Turner is an UNRESTRICTED free agent this summer. Turner's qualifying offer in 2014 will be in excess of $8.7 million. While the Sixers certainly have the ability to handle such a cap hold, it is unknown at this point whether Sam Hinkie's cost-benefit analysis will determine that extending such a huge qualifying offer is worth it for a player of Turner's caliber. If the Sixers elect not to extend such a rich qualifying offer, then Turner will be unrestricted and free to sign with any team without Philly having any right to match.
     
  18. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    just because he's the top guy available next summer doesn't mean teams with cap space will offer him the max just because they can. he is by no means a guy you can build around, although he is a great compliment to those type of players. since he's not going to be the face of the franchise, locking him in as your highest paid (max?!) player long term just means you won't be able to afford better players that are actual all stars. in short, it would doom any team to do that. since kahhhn and isaiah are out of office, it won't happen.
     
  19. DraftBoy10

    DraftBoy10 Member

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    This.

    Concentrate most of our salary cap to our best 2 players. The third player will be a costly one, too.

    4th & 5th starters mid-tier ranges, the rest vet signings. They are all interchangable. Ronnie Brewer, for example, is here on an unguaranteed contract. This dude is a solid rotational player and an exceptional defensive player.

    He's definitely capable of being a rotation player for 20-25mpg, on this roster as is, and he's not even a "lock" to make it per contract. These pieces are everywhere, don't overspend here. I know Morey doesn't and won't.

    Most resources go to players 1 & 2. Then priority wise 4 & 5 is subject to however our #3 priority works(top star like Aldridge taking 15mil, or just under-all star caliber Parsons taking 10mil).
     
  20. rogower

    rogower Member

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    You're right. Evan Turner will have to make major strides in 2013-14; otherwise, you're right, he'll be unrestricted. One of many players on this Sixers roster who are prime trade candidates between now and the February trade deadline as Daryl Morey Jr. reshapes the roster.
     

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