Tom Savage - Texans' fourth round (#135 overall) pick

You seem to be assuming both perfect information and very little risk aversion.

I don't think the evaluations of the quarterback position in the NFL is precise enough to handicap a QB versus another skill position to the precision required to make that sort of decision nearly automatic, like a fantasy roto-draft. Each team's model may reduce the number of choices, but once you're on the clock, it is still the people in the draft room that make the final call. Those guys are having the same arguments that we have the next day over which of those choices to go with, minus the hindsight. That's where confirmation bias raises its ugly head, when human beings have to take objective data and make a subjective decision.

You also rarely see teams giving up on their seasons in order to dramatically improve their draft position until it is clear that they are out of the hunt. Do you think the Texans would roll with a bad QB this year in order to improve their draft position next year? Of course not. Those sorts of decisions are made well into the season, and they never go over well with coaches and players whose incentive is always to WIN NOW, not three years from now.

As fans, we have both the benefit of hindsight and a desire to WIN NOW without any consequences for risks taken to WIN NOW. Only time will tell if this draft has any real consequences to the future of the franchise.

 

Savage can possibly be the most important player out this draft for the Texans. A team without a competent quarterback has practically no hope.

 

I've watched more film on Savage and I've changed my opinion on him. He is much better than the FSU game. I watched him vs FSU and walked away thinking this kid is crap. I watched another game against Notre Dame and he was a little better but I couldn't get the FSU game out of my head. I've since watched more film and he clearly got better as the season progressed and had some of his best games in the last few.

More importantly I understood his story better. After bouncing around without playing for 2 years it was expected for him to have a slow start. But I thought the improvement from beginning to end was very impressive.

I'm not saying he is going to be great, alot of what he reminds me of is a healthy Matt Schaub with a little less accuracy and a little more mobility. So i don't know where that leaves him. Accept to say he has that with 2 years of DNP's and he has continually improved.

So as long as he improves at the same rate he might be pretty good. I still think it's a shame we didn't walk away with Clowney and Bridgewater. It could've happen. But Savage is a pretty damn good 4th rounder. That's my take.

 

Savage has an awesome high release. Looks good.

But apparently still has accuracy problems.

 

Those aren't going to go away overnight. We'll see what he looks like this time next year.

 

I just saw some highlights from his freshmen year from Rutgers. Dude was a stud he could be a steal. If he stayed with Rutgers all 4 years and never missed a lot of games from transferring he could of been a first rounder for sure. He is better than Bortles and Manziel in my opinion. And also I saw a video from his old coach from Rutgers and he said Tom Savage is a smart guy, works hard and studies the system well. That's something Bill O'Brien likes. And Tom is a big dude with a good arm i'm sure Bill O'Brien won't have a problem with this guy.

 

He missed like a thousand days - so hopefully he can knock some rust off and maybe pick up something that helps out.

 

dont think its fair to judge a player based on highlights.

 

His highlights from his freshmen year at Rutgers he looked fit and in shape and he had better accuracy. In Pittsburgh he looked slow, fat and out of shape. Even though he still had a decent season in Pittsburgh. I think he was in better shape with Rutgers than with Pittsburgh.

 

was pitt in the bowl game last year? Or did this guy ever played in crunch time or got any come from behind wins?

 

Pitt played in a bowl game, but mostly ran the ball as they had a very strong running game all season as well.

Freshman James Conner broke Tony Dorsett's bowl game rushing record (and maybe any individual game) with 229 yards.

I watched some of their games, as I watched Conner in high school. He's gonna be a good one.

Pitt had some great freshman last year.

 

"Will he start Week One? I don’t anticipate that being the case and hopefully, it’s not the case. But, before this season’s over, Savage will make an impact on this Texans squad."
John Harris.
http://www.battleredblog.com/2014/5...kie-mini-camp-john-harris-reviews-the-offense

 

I can't lie, this looks cool

 

Well, he looks the part & that seems to be important for this coach.

I just hope that someone on the roster can play QB at all. Because if they can't, it'll be another long year.

 

man, back in the day, we'd have to wait til august to get rookie cards with the full team uniform on.

 

Hopefully they don't add a "ter" to that picture.

 

Man, he still looks too much like Schaub for my tastes.

 

Gee, I wish you wouldn't have said that! He does! And it looks like he is holding a toy football.

 

Big hands are correlated with success at the QB position in the NFL.

 

Nah the only thing him and Schaub have in common is height, Savage looks like the abandoned love child of Nicholas Cage and Jeremy Piven: