first we're gonna go to texas...then ohio...then pennsylvania..........aaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Here we go again. I don't believe this poll. Surely Hillary has fallen down but this would indicate a complete collapse, which probably isn't happening yet. If Obama keep Penn. close enough and beats her in Indiana & North Carolina, the game will be over. Then again, it's theoretically possible her campaign has run out of gas and he wins PA. But IMO, she would have to impale herself a couple more times for that to happen.
Howard Dean...Bobby Kennedy...the damned speeches were so similar with the exception of the very, very end.
I'd love for this to be true, but this has to be erratic data, I just don't think there's any way Obama has pulled this reverse on Clinton in such a short time. He's not going to win PA. If he were to lose by only 8 points, that would be a victory. If he actually won by any margin- one or two points, it would be absolutely crushing to the Clinton campaign. But it's not going to happen. We thought (and so did he) that all he needed was enough time and he could campaign to wins in TX and OH. Given, he cut into her lead, and almost obliterated her lead in TX... but after March 4 I think we have to lower expectations. Polls show that the blue-collar white voters aren't shifting in any significant way from Hill to Barack, and that is what would have to happen. His numbers throughout all Appalachia are really poor.
Reporting from PA, I can tell you that these new polls that have Obama up or within 5 are most likely just a snapshot in time. Obama's outspending Hillary on TV in PA something like 5-1 right now, and his commercials are seemingly on TV all the time this week. Also, Obama got pretty good coverage in the state from the Casey endorsement and subsequent bus tour across PA. (The bowling alley visit in particular got great coverage.) Once Hillary goes on air in a big way, I expect her lead to get back in the 8-12 point range.
trends continue to favor Obama -- via TPM -- Poll: Hillary Up By Only Two Points In Pennsylvania By Eric Kleefeld - April 3, 2008, 3:49PM A new InsiderAdvantage poll of Pennsylvania shows this primary down to a dead heat: Clinton 45%, Obama 43%. The poll gives some measure of corroboration to yesterday's Public Policy Polling (D) survey, which put Obama nominally ahead by two. From the internals: Clinton leads only 49%-40% among whites, while Obama is ahead 56%-29% with black voters. Clinton is ahead 49%-38% with women, while Obama is ahead 47%-41% with men.
khan, good to see you post. you're a McCain guy, am I right? sincere question -- I'd like to know your take, if you are leaning toward someone.
Definitely not a McCain guy ... I'm a pretty hardcore Dem. Maybe you have me confused with someone else?
Yeah, okay I take it back. Not good to see you post. j/k sorry about that. I know I like "wrath_of_khan" posts, but I remembered you being a business person with a lot of fairly (reasonable) conservative views on business-related politics. WHO am I thinking of? edit: FD Khan, or some handle like that... And by the way, Madmax, it's yeeeaarrrrrrrrruugghgggghghhhhhhhh!
I can't trust polls. Barring another sensational event. Hillary should still win by double digits in Penn.
I tend to agree. But if Obama can keep it under 10 points, it's a huge win. If Hillary loses by even 1% she's done. Really all the pressure is on her. Still, as I said, it's fun to watch the trends.
As a PA guy myself I kind of get the vibe that it's neck-and-neck also. Granted, as a registered Republican with a completely neutral stance on the Democratic race, I can say that i'll never, ever understand the fascination with Obama even in a million years. I think Hillary is light years the better candidate but hey, I guess that's for you Dems to decide.
I guess the secrecy, back room deals, smear campaigns of public enemies, and corporate friendly policies wrapped in an a facade of party ideology is all too familiar with a Republican.
Really? I'm in Philly -- an Obama stronghold -- and I don't get that impression at all. What are you seeing that makes you think it's neck-and-neck? Just curious.
From the different polls. Each poll seems to tell a different story: whether it's Hillary in a landslide, Hillary barely, Obama barely, etc. My buddy is an autograph dealer and i've been a few Obama and Clinton rallies. Obama's rallies are packed wall-to-wall (he drew something like 20,000 at Penn St. last week) but at the same time a couple weeks ago whenever Hillary was in Pittsburgh and received Ravenstahl and Rendell's endorsements you kind of got the vibe that Pittsburgh would likely go to Hillary. I'm just speculating but at the same time given the nature of this bitter, civil war-like campaign there's every reason to believe Pennsylvania will be as neck-and-neck as every other state.
I see. Well, see my post above. I think there are clear reasons why the polls might be tightening this week (Obama's huge advantage in TV ad spending and positive news coverage from the Casey endorsement), but those will most likely be temporary blips -- especially when Hillary increases her TV buy. The news coverage I've read seems to stress that there are many blue-collar dems who have made up their mind for Hillary and aren't changing. Maybe that's just how the Philly Inquirer is covering it, but I don't see many potential votes that Obama can gain in the state. Plus, according to the paper, Rendell is working overtime for Hillary, and he's a very skilled campaigner with an impressive organization. I don't think the Penn State rally speaks to new Obama momentum as much as it shows how committed his base of young voters is. Obama had a massive rally in the middle of the day in NJ before that primary and got crushed there.
Depends on the ads... In general, Obama's ad buys will have more of an impact because he's not as well known, obviously (with people who are influenced by thirty second spots). Need to find another "3 AM" ad, I guess.
