No other way to be ..... I don't need to tell someone they are wrong or call them stupid or any other names. If we can't get along we shouldn't waste our time .... Sure, everything is open for debate .... but my main point in this conversation is cap flexibility. The bottom line is that KPJ's cap hold is $9.65m. If the team can sign him for anything up to that amount, doing it now is advantageous. If they have to pay him $1 more than that cap hold, they are better off doing it after any moves they plan next offseason, then going over the cap to retain KPJ. As far as what KPJ ultimately ends up getting, that will depend upon the team(s) who make him offers. If they are over the cap, they'll only have the NT-MLE $11,283,000 and that will hard cap them or they have the T-MLE $6,969,000. Then there's the BAE $4,415,000 for teams who didn't use it last year and also hard caps teams. The "Room exception" for teams who started the league year with cap space but are now at the cap - $5,809,000 The next option is teams with actual cap space - there are only 7 teams who may cap space next offseason and 6 of them are lottery teams. IF one of these teams offers him a contract, the Rockets can go over the cap to match. I can't see those teams using much of their cap space on KPJ just to tank .... the only one who isn't in the midst of a rebuild is Memphis and their cap situation depends upon retaining Dillon Brooks and or Steven Adams or not .... and if Adams is let go they'd definitely be in the market for a big. The last option is the Vet Min of (5y) $2,294,497 which any team is able to offer him.
I don't quite understand what you are saying here. Are you saying procedurally signing KPJ at the very end of next summer transaction period is the best way to maximize cap space (totally agree), or are you saying the best way to get KPJ as cheaply as possible is to let him go to RFA and see what teams are actually willing to attempt to sign him? I agree on the first point but I think you have miscalculated on the second because: A.)Detroit, Orlando, the Hornets, and Thunder think they may have foundational pieces and KPJ could very well be a Robin(on potential) if not a high level role player(where he is currently) for a team in need of combo guard. You gotta figure a team with cap space who is looking to add to their foundational piece would be hard pressed to find a better player in the draft after the first 3 or 4 picks than a 22yr old 2 way player who is already averaging 16/6/4 as a starter today. To add to that.... B.) I would be VERY skeptical that those fan bases particularly in Detroit, Orlando, and OKC are going to continue to stomach intentionally being bad through 23/24. I can understand tanking for a couple of years but year 4 of "the process" is where the **** hit the fan in Philly - ask Hinkie how that went. Maybe Presti has the prestige to push it but Orlando and Detroit will definitely be trying to avoid the optics of a team intentionally tanking and avoiding good young players. Cap space teams in 23 include Spurs, Detroit, Orlando, Pacers, Jazz, Hornets, Thunder, Griz. There is always a chance Brooks as a UFA doesn't want to come back to the Griz and if that were the case they would definitely be all about throwing whatever they have at KPJ(who frankly would be a hell of a fit there). The Pacers never seem to have an interest in rebuilding through the draft(or at least tanking) so they are a legit consideration to make an offer at KPJ. If the Spurs grab Wembanyama in this draft, I could see them looking hard at KPJ too. Certainly not ALL these teams will be interested but I don't think it's a far fetched theory to think that at least 2 of potentially 6 teams could have serious interest in KPJ in 23 and don't forget D'Angelo Russell will be a FA in 23 - it would be a gamble but you gotta think KPJ is a better fit on that roster than Russell in "win now" 'Sota...even if Townes and Russell are buds. My point is, if an NBA GM thinks KPJ is at very least a capable NBA level starter TODAY(with no future improvements to his game), then there will be legit interest in him given the relative scarcity of a player that young with that skill set being available, the draft being a high risk game for even a player like KPJ today, and that many former lotto teams WILL be trying to build competitive rosters out of the ashes of their rebuilds. I think you have to at least attempt to negotiate a modest number with him and his agent to prevent overpaying for him in 23 when he will be one of only a handful of productive players of his age available. Honestly, if I were KPJ's agent I would be begging Houston to let us play the RFA game because I think we could get at least a few teams bidding up the price(and in turn put more money in MY pocket).
If he brings it all together, becomes an All Star, all as a Rocket... it might make up for drafting Morris over Leonard. Maybe.
The team I'm most expecting to make a play on Porter jr is the Mavericks. 23/24 Mavs are set to have team salary of $130 Million before cap holds; But $31.5M is the non guaranteed contracts of **Dinwiddie (21.0 Mil) and Reggie Bullock ($10.5 Mil). *NBA salary cap expected to raise to $133.3 Mil (per Eric Pincus 07/01/22) Mavericks did not see Brunson worth what the Knicks dished out for Brunson (Brunson's dad works for the Knicks) due to defensive liability (6'1") Age 26 this season. ___________ Mavs are trying to do two things since the loss of Brunson: 1) looking for replacement: Frank Ntilikina, Kyrie, Dragic, and now considering Collin Sexton. 2) Removing some of their payroll now (this season) as Tim Hardaway Jr and/or Reggie Bullock rumored on the trade market. Tim Hardaway is $19.6 Mil and then $17.6 Mil (in 23/24). If my Projections for Porter Jr this season: 20 pts...5.5 rebs...7.8 Asts...34 (Ast%) would very much be welcomed next to Doncic this trade deadline or poached from the Rockets by a high bid in the summer '23. Say $25 Mil. or higher. Collin Sexton Ast% his first 4 years vs Porter Jr: 18/19: Sexton 15.3 (Ast%).................................... 19/20: Sexton 15.1 (Ast%)............KPj 13.9 (Ast%) 20/21: Sexton 22.6 (Ast%)............KPj 31.2 (Ast%) 21/22: Sexton 11.9 (Ast%)............KPj 30.7 (Ast%) Porter Jr > Sexton as PG Mavericks free agents 23/24 C Wood (Bird Rights) Dwight Powell (Bird Rights) Max Kleber (Bird Rights) Josh Green ( team option - Opt Bird) Frank Ntilikina (Early Bird) per Dallas Mavericks sportrac Summary: the Mavs could move money prior to next summer or clear money and offer KPj a big deal (forcing Rockets to match or walk)....then deal with Wood, Powell, Kleber on smaller deals by using their Bird Rights. **Dinwiddie (21/22)Mavs: 15.8 pts...3.9 Ast....3.1 rebs....22.0 (Ast%)....[ $20.2 mil ] age 29 Bullock (21/22) Mavs: 8.6 pts........1.2 Ast.......3.5 rebs.....[ $10.5 mil ] age 31 ---------------- Not many options available in free agency in summer '23 Porter being age 23 at the time that is 6'5", ambidextrous, 30+ Ast% player, and shot 48% as CnS three-guy fits very well next to Doncic. Good thing the Rockets are training Jalen Green to slide to the 1 or JC, TyTy or Nix to take over. Maybe draft Scoot Henderson, Nick Smith, Black. Some of us are saying secure Porter now for around $17 mil or attempt to pay $20+ mil later. Comes down to trust (now) on future incidents. basketball-reference.com projects KPj at: 18.2 pts...6.8 Ast...5.1 rebs (they just tac on a few points to season averages. My Projections 20.4 pts....7.8 Ast....5.5 rebs Im tacking on to end of season stats because that was more reality since the Rockets removed Theis and Wood from the equation (both held back KPj stats).
KPJ is not gonna settle for anything less than Eric Gordon money. No way he takes less than 20 million a year. It’s a deal for Rockets if they can get him less than 20 million.
Rockets deserve a deal. He was out of the league if not for us and he still couldn't act right. He's not getting 20 million. $15 million is ok for a 2 year deal (so 30) He can add a player option for a third if he's confident in himself l. Put incentives in there as well
And honestly, he shouldn't. 20 mil a year isn't "crazy money" anymore given the market, it just means you are a starting guard. If Tim Hardaway Jr could get 4 years 75 mil last year, that should be the absolute baseline for an extension. We'll see how it plays out, but if KPJ is willing to take a discount rate and sign for 15-18 mil a year, they should absolutely jump on it. From what I can tell the only people who strongly disagree are those who irrationally dislike the player and people who don't understand the current market for starting NBA guards.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. I also expect KPJ to score 20+ points, somewhere between 20 and 22. The other thing that I am curious about is KPJ+Alpi co-operation. If the team decides to tank again it means that Rockets will draft another playmaker or center rather than shooting guard(JGreen), Power forward (Jabari).Small forward area is crowded. KPJ and Alpi (or their agents) are not silly people and they are expected to co-operate about KPJ/Alpi plays. KPJ feeds Alpi rather than the others, Alpi passes to KPJ.Their numbers sky-rockets, others fail, the team tanks happily,KPJ's market value gets higher. This tanking issue makes me ill.
We many are tearing that it's a contract year for KPj and that he is gonna go rogue and attempt to do everything solo. Go for 28 points and forget to pass or act like Rondo/Westbrook and wants to be the only one getting assists. I don't think he will, since his interview where he said he put too much pressure on himself last season and played better after he, "Let it Go" [ Frozen - reference ] If Porter jr plays in the flow of the game/scheme, he should do just fine. Points Last 39 games of 21/22: 17.1 pts ( per basketball -reference.com ) Last 21 games of 21/22: 19.5 pts ( per basketball -reference.com ) In 7 games w/o Wood (20/21): 17.7 pts ( per Statmuse ) In 10 games w/o Wood (21/22): 25.0 pts ( per Statmuse ) With no Thies-Wood and the gravity of the defense Jalen Green provides this year, spacing provided from improved 3-pt shooting of Tate, Sengun...... Jabari was 47.4% from left corner 3 in college, Tari in the other corner where I suspect he will hit a few. Mathews/EG are our acs in the hole if Silas needs some SPACE. So 20+ Points is doable especially if Silas adds screens and movement. Assists In last 39 games (21/22): 6.4 Ast ( per basketball-reference.com ) In last 21 games (21/22): 6.4 Ast ( per basketball-reference.com ) In 7 games w/o Wood (20/21): 6.4 Ast ( per Statmuse ) In 10 games w/o Wood (21/22): 6.7 Ast ( per Statmuse ) So yes, I think about one more assist near 7.8 is doable; especially when you consider added spot shooters in Jabari and Tari plus now the wrinkle of vertical spacing slash lob dunkers in WCS or Fernando Bruno or Tari. Wood rolled to the basket so few times per NBA.com Rebs In last 39 games (21/22): 4.5 rebs ( per basketball-reference.com ) In last 21 games (21/22): 5.1 rebs ( per basketball-reference.com ) In 7 games w/o Wood (20/21): 3.1 rebs ( per Statmuse ) In 10 games w/o Wood (21/22): 6.8 rebs ( per Statmuse ) So yes, I believe 5.5 rebounds are doable. Tari, Jabari, Sengun, Tate will get the lion's share, though. Turnovers In last 39 games (21/22): 2.7 turnovers ( per basketball-reference.com ) In last 21 games (21/22): 2.6 turnovers ( per basketball-reference.com ) In 7 games without Wood (20/21): ....2.6 turnovers ( per Statmuse ) In 10 games without Wood (21/22):..2.6 turnovers ( per Statmuse ) So yes, I think Porter jr can get his turnovers down to 2.4 turnovers per game. Maybe not in the first months of Oct/Nov when Silas adds more movement and the timing is off.....but he will even things out with back half of Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb.... Assists% In 20/21:....31.2 Ast% ( per basketball-reference.com ) In 21/22:....30.7 Ast% ( per basketball-reference.com ) So I think 34.4 or greater Ast% is doable since added targets and players around Porter jr. improving. Adding screens and rolling to the basket. ------------- People think I just put down any numbers.....no, there is some thought process applied to the matter.
I know "only 1.7 attempts per game", but Im looking forward to verifying if this is sustainable with more volume which should occur with Sengun in the starting lineup this season.
Catch and shoot should be absolutely sustainable. LBJ was like 50% or something even more ridiculous over the course of a season with the Heat one year and I feel like KPJ is (or should be) a comparable shooter. I don't think he will ever be any type of deadeye, but he doesn't need to be either.
You and I can agree on: we want the season to start already!! Let's get this thing going! Go Rockets!! We goin to Morton's
This is why it's best to get a deal done now rather than wait, if F'n RJ Barrett can get 4 years 120 mil right now, you don't want to wait for the guard market to get crazier and more expensive a year from now
