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To extend KPJ or not?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Lachard Binkley, Jul 29, 2022.

  1. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    I believe that's Obi Toppin
     
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  2. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    Obi
     
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  3. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    they won’t

    according to them, Brunson and KPJr were the same caliber of player last year

    #logic
     
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  4. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    C'mon man.. you're really going to post Dream's relationship history and claim it was something bad? Did you read the story? Did you read either story? I don't get your obsession with trying to make KPJ's past seem like it was no big deal. It's the whole reason he is not already extended.

    At least come up with better arguments for the case. Because googling up some info about Dream's personal life, which was not in any way a crime, and a great story about Barkley (I have no idea why he got arrested for defending himself), is nothing.

    And again, I hope this ends soon with a fair extension because I'm sick of all the BS. Some of it is funny and all, but there's no need to argue for the sake of arguing.
     
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  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    The point is not about Dream or Barkley but about young guys doing stupid **** before they mature.

    KPJ hasn't done anything more than a ton of other guys have done......

    Now I am not saying give him an extension, whatever Rafael decides is fine by me, I am saying that don't hate on a guy that struggled with stupidity because they grew up in a harsh environment and was still in the process of maturing as a person.

    Showing examples of that with players we all love and respect is a great way of doing it.....

    DD
     
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  6. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    Here's my 2 cents on KPJ:

    Like most players, there's things that KPJ does well and things he doesn't do well. Normally, you want to see a player maximize the things that they do well and minimize the things that they don't do as well.

    One of Porter's problems is that he doesn't do what's he's the best at often enough and some of the things that he does the most are things that are his weaker points. Though it's not all by choice.

    Here's some examples:

    Porter was great last year on catch and shoot 3pt shots, hitting 48.2%. The problem is that he only attempted 1.9 per game and made less than 1 per game (0.9/game). On the flip side, he was really bad in Isolations ( 0.80 ppp) and equally bad in Pick and Roll ( 0.82 ppp) yet he did those things 9.0 times per game. So he did something that he's poor at 4.74 times as often as something that he's elite at doing. NOTE: everyone on our team sucked in pick and roll last year, not just KPJ.

    Here's a key stat that describes his shooting production:

    When KPJ's touch time was < 2 seconds, he was great with a 55% FG% and 50% 3pt%. 23.6% of his shots fall into this category. That's incredible production.

    When KPJ's touch time was between 2 and 6 seconds, his shooting drops off to a below league average level where he shoots 39.9% FG% (League average was 46.1%) and 34% 3pt% (League Average was 36.7%). 40.6% of his shots fall into this category.

    Finally, when KPJ's touch time is greater than 6 seconds, his shooting falls off a cliff to 34.3% FG% and 27.5% 3pt%. 35.8% of his shots fall into this category.

    So he does what he's great at 23.6% of the time and the other 76.4% of the time, he's doing things where he's below average to terrible at.

    Once you realize that his efficiency falls off greatly when his touch time exceeds 2 seconds, then you can see the problem with the fact that his average touch time is 5.06 seconds per touch.

    One huge factor that I haven't mentioned yet is the effect that his role plays in all this. He's the PG and the team's primary ball handler. Being in that role pretty much dictates that you're going to have the ball in your hands a whole lot. So by playing his role of primary ball handler, it causes him to hold the ball and that's been bad for his shooting.

    There's other cases though where doing what you're inefficient at is done by choice. For example, last year KPJ struggled in clutch situations ( game within 5 points and less than 5 minutes on the clock). In clutch situations, he had a 3pt% of 28.6% and a TS% of 45.1. Green was very good in those same clutch situations with a 3pt% of 40% and a TS% of 57.9%. Matthews was unconscious in clutch situations shooting 50% on 3 pointers and an ungodly TS% of 83%. Despite how good Green and Matthews were in clutch situations, Porter took the most shots in clutch situations.

    So what does all this mean? We can't have our primary ball handler be an overall inefficient shooter ( 53.1 TS%) and an inefficient ball handler (1.96 AST/TO). Either KPJ is going to have to improve his efficiency in both shooting and ball handling or 2) he'll have to play something other than PG to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

    I know that lots of folks are predicting particular stats for Porter but those are really not important to me. What matters is his efficiency. He's been an inefficient shooter all three seasons in the NBA and his rookie year in Cleveland was actually his most efficient ( 53.4 TS%). He's simply got to get better with his efficiency. His scoring could drop but if his efficiency goes up to even league average then it would be huge for the Rockets. Ditto for his ball handling/passing. If he can just clean up those areas it would be a big step forward for the Rockets. If his numbers go up and he remains inefficient then we're not going to be successful.
     
  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Seems like Silas and crew ought to be doing a better job of putting our players in situations they do best......


    DD
     
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  8. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    Nah, I don't really think so. We're way too early in the rebuild. We're still trying to develop players and see just what we have with this roster.

    If Porter can be a full time PG, his value is much higher than if he's just a spot up shooter. They have to take a look and see if they think he can do the job or not. If they decide that he's not a PG, then the next question is whether he can become a high volume spot up shooter. A low volume spot up shooter no matter how well you shoot isn't too valuable.

    They're going for the biggest payoff and trying to see if he can be a PG. It's not like we're going to be making a playoff run any time soon so now's the time to find out. There's absolutely no reason to be concerned with wins and losses over development right now. Whether people like it or not, the biggest step we could take is likely to be a whole lot of losing and then a good day at the lottery.
     
  9. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    Oct 2nd cannot get here fast enough.
     
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  10. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    Best post I've read regarding KPJ.
     
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  11. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    He didn't take more catch and shoot 3's because he was on a team full of scrubs... when you are the only player willing and capable of creating shots for others, you just aren't going to get those opportunities.

    Now hopefully that changes this season. It's possible Green may have developed a bit in the off season and having more Sengun instead of Wood should help create more opportunities.

    I just can't see blaming him for the shortcomings of his teammates... especially when we saw what happens when those teammates aren't worthless towards the end of last season.
     
  12. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    That's not true. Porter has twice had serious altercations with NBA coaches and end up throwing something in anger each time. Dream and Barkley never had altercations like that. That rarely happens and it's not just something that young guys do.

    Can you name me another NBA player that got mad and left the arena at half time? That's not something that a "ton of other guys have done".

    Porter's issues aren't just your typical young guy knucklehead stuff. You're completely underplaying the seriousness of his prior incidents.
     
  13. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    Nobody's "blaming him" it just a run down of the facts. I'm assuming that you don't disagree with the idea of minimizing the things that you don't do well.

    Can he continue to shoot a high percentage on catch and shoot 3s if he increases the volume? Nobody knows.

    Regardless, that has nothing whatsoever to do with his ability to play PG. If he's the PG then the balls going to be in his hands as he tries tor run the offense. If he continues to shoot poorly overall and be inefficient in non catch and shoot situations then he won't be a PG in the future.If he's the PG then he's not going to get a ton of catch and shoot 3s.

    Also realize that there's things that he does control. When you've been really bad all year in iso and pick and roll, then stop running them 9 times per game. Ditto, with end of game stuff. If you're shooting that bad in the clutch then let the guys who excel in the clutch take the shots. Those are all things that he controls.

    He's going to have to step up this season. HIs improvement in those areas will dictate if he's the PG of the future, plays a different position for us or is on another team soon. There's a a fairly wide set of outcomes there and makes it very difficult to say what his true contract value is going forward.
     
  14. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    If you actually read the post, he is not blamed for not taking more c&s 3s. He is blamed for making bad choices in clutch time, though.
     
  15. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Listing the fact that he didn't get a chance to do what he's best at without explaining why he didn't get to makes it seem like he was making bad decisions, when in reality he didn't have better alternatives given the scrubs he was playing with.

    Also, he's not "inefficient" from 3 overall....he was inefficient when trying do make things happen inside when there was no spacing whatsoever due to playing with guys who can't shoot that collapse defenses.....it's the same reason why Green got blocked at the rim at least once almost every game for most of the season.

    Most of last season was due to KPJ not having any viable options since his teammates were trash most of the season.

    The positive projections going forward rest on the idea that Green will start off where he left off last season and develop even further from there and guys like Sengun will be able to help running the offense.

    He is though. Ignoring that there were no viable options is blaming KPJ for his teammates being trash.
     
  16. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    To be fair to him, being the PG of literally the worst team in the NBA (and he’s one of the best players himself) by default means his passing options suck.

    I wasn’t ecstatic with last season but it’s incredibly valuable that he showed he can be a good defender. That’s the big turning point. Working on ANY offensive part of his game would be helpful, the pressure to create is much reduced with Sengun and Green able to help running plays. Plus Wood is gone which is a huge plus, that guy kills team ball movement.

    The focus should be on efficiency and defense. Steady improvement would be great. I think he can have a really incredible story if he understands how big this moment is in his career. Financially and status wise, this is his opportunity to shine and it can be easy for him from there. He could be a key part of a really excellent core for ten years or something. I hope he’s been working on his game.
     
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  17. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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    But I did explain why he didn't get to do only what he's good at. Did you not read where I said "One huge factor that I haven't mentioned yet is the effect that his role plays in all this. He's the PG and the team's primary ball handler. Being in that role pretty much dictates that you're going to have the ball in your hands a whole lot. So by playing his role of primary ball handler, it causes him to hold the ball and that's been bad for his shooting." ? I explained that his role as PG requires him to have the ball in his hands to run the offense and that puts him in situations where he's not shot well.

    Also, notice earlier in the post where I say "One of Porter's problems is that he doesn't do what's he's the best at often enough and some of the things that he does the most are things that are his weaker points. Though it's not all by choice.". Did you not read where it says "though it's not all by choice"?

    Did I say he was inefficient from 3 overall? I said that his shooting was overall inefficient. That's all shooting...everything. He had a TS% of 53.1% last season. That's inefficient. Just last week you posted about Westbrook and D. Rose having TS% of .527 and .528 and people laughing at them. Well, KPJ has a TS% of .531 last year and his career high TS% is .534. His career TS% is .531. He's been inefficient all three years he's been in the league.

    Are you thinking that he should do nothing but shoot catch and shoot 3s?

    If he's going to be a PG then he's going to have to do things besides catch and shoot. Last year he was bad at most everything other than catch and shoot. He can't be a .531 TS% guy with a Ast/TO ratio less than two and also be really bad at ISO and Pick and Roll. That simply won't work for a PG. He's got to improve...regardless of his teammates.

    If Porter is the PG then he's going to have the ball most of the time. Sengun will facilitate some but he's not going to be the primary guy. Sengun's Ast/TO numbers are even worse than Porter's. Those guys may be secondary playmakers at some point, but if Porter's the PG then he's got to be able to run the team.

    It's a cop-out to blame Porter's issues on his teammates. Schroeder had a much better AST/TO ratio passing to the same guys. The fact that Porter didn't shoot well in non-catch and shoot situations isn't due to his teammates. Gordon had a TS% of 61.4% and he only got 0.3 assists per game from Porter. Mathews had a TS% of 60.2% and he only got 0.5 assists per game from Porter. Not only were they somehow able to be efficient with "trash" teammates, they were extemely efficient.
     
  18. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    Yes, but it wouldn't dictate that if he wasn't surrounded by scrubs that don't give him any help at all.....as we saw at the end of the season after Green figured it out offensively. The reason he's a perfect fit at PG for the Rockets is that most of us believe at some point Green will figure out how to create shots for others meaning the PG has to be able to play PG AND play off ball.

    As to his TS%, that was greatly effected by the lack of spacing clogging up lanes and having to try and create something out of nothing with no help....something I hope won't be the case as much going forward.

    While Schroder had a better assist to turnover ratio, his on/off splits show that he hurt the team on both sides of the ball when he was on the court. I'll take the slightly lesser assist to turnover ratio with the player that improves his team on both ends of the court.
     
  19. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Can you find the PnR stats for just KPJ ?

    Edit: I see you did it in a later post.
     
  20. aelliott

    aelliott Member

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