Lets dig into the numbers that people like to throw around to support giving him a big extension. First - youngest player to post 50&10. He did it once out of 137 games. That equates to "7 tenths of a percent", "7 thousandths" or 0.007 of all games played. It is an outlier of epic proportions. Take that outlier out of the equation and he's averaged 15.46 & 6.16 as a Rocket. Not bad numbers. Best catch and shoot percentage from 3 in the NBA .... small sample size. 114 attempts, that means 55 makes or 0.901 per game per game over the 61 games played last season. But lets take this a step further - He shot .375 as a whole from 3 for the season (exactly league average) but that's a far cry lower than the .482 on catch and shoot 3's. If you remove the catch and shoot 3's from the total 155/413 - 55/114 = 100/299 ..... or .334 on all other 3 point attempts. Well below league average. This is significant because those catch and shoot 3's are created by "someone else" while KPJ is supposed to be the lead guard of this team generating shots for himself and others. He's not very efficient when he has to create for himself according to the statistics. 3.25 turnovers per game and a 1.95-1 assist to turnover ratio. Anything less than 2:1 is woefully inept in the NBA. FT shooting dropped from a passable .734 to a dismal for a lead guard .642 The team is 20-67 with Porter in the lineup the past two years. That's .230. They are 37/154 as a team over that span - .240. None of the above numbers scream lead guard that we absolutely have to extend for big money .... to me, I think they support what many here have said over the past year - he's a 6th man type. His cap hold is $9.65m if he'll sign on the dotted line for 3 years, the final year a team option starting at that I'd consider it, otherwise he needs to hit RFA and maybe we match if some team didn't get silly with the numbers.
Teams dont need "point guards" anymore. The game has evolved and what teams need are guys who can get buckets at will and defend. The receipts in this thread alone will be worth a million bucks later. F'ing awesome!
I meant max for the equivalent stat average that other players have gotten in the past. I did not mean superstar-type max.
At this point, the KPJ hot takes have gotten so absurd that it's not even worth discussing anymore. Time to just sit back and wait for the extension or a massive offer sheet next offseason. I'm usually all for lively debate, but when the mental gymnastics attempting to downplay the most talented player on the roster get this pronounced, it's time to move on.
Restricted guys almost never get big offer sheets! That just doesn’t happen for guys like kpj, can you give any examples?
Teams are almost never stupid enough to let their most talented players hit RFA..... but that's exactly what certain "Rockets fans" are advocating for. Ayton just got a 4 year 133 million dollar offer sheet, KPJ's wouldn't be that high, but it would almost certainly be at least 80 or 90 mill
Maybe you’re right and he will explode this season, but if he was an RFA right now would anyone even offer him 10 a season? I think there’s no chance in hell
With the departure of Wood last year's KPJ was probably our best player, but I think the hesitancy to extend from many folks comes from the fact that he did not take a big step forward last year from the previous year, statistically. I think if he can crack the top 100 players in the NBA next year then I'd certainly extend him. If he remains around the same level I'd consider an extension but it'd have to be a really team friendly deal.
Why are you taking out his best stats to make a point? You can do the same for Green and he would look even worse.
That's the point of the Rockets trying to get the extension done now. So far, he has played at around $7/year level, so they want to get an extension done. The team is going to look a lot different this year, and should benefit KPJ and his ability to show real improvement. He may want to take the chance on himself and forgo the extension and just wait on free agency next year in hopes of cashing in. That scenario is not without his pitfalls. If he struggles on the court early, or something goes wrong in his personal life, will he have the ability to stay focused and not let it get him derailed? That's a legit worry. Another incident could cost him his career. Having that extension in his pocket could relieve a lot of stress for him.
The issue is he has played 3 seasons and produced basically 0, he has been horrible all 3 seasons. Horrendous PER, horrendous TS, everything. He really isn’t worth more then something like 3/12 based on his actual production, so you are paying purely for potential. If you give him 3/40 or whatever he would take, you are one incident away from paying meaningful money to a minimum level player.
