All summer I stated 15Ms per season. Fair for both sides but even that was too much! Listen to your bias! “Scared that he will improve a little” your mind is made up and your ego is showing. This should be a good experience for you. Hope you don’t disappear if events run contrary to your opinion.
There was a 20 game sample to end the season last year that you always conveniently ignore.... and he picked up in preseason where he left off. For whatever reason though, you think his first few seasons is more indicative of his current level of play. There's just no way you are being intellectually honest if you have an IQ above room temperature.
Why is this thread still so active? It's pretty obvious the Rockets are on the side of let's let the kid go out and earn his contract and are not going to extend him. As they should too, as there is far too many questions about him both as a person and a player. The season is about to start, so lets let the kids go out and play. By all-star break, we should have a pretty good idea of what KPJ's future is going to look like.
I am not ANTI-MATH - I use math every single day in coding and programming AI etc. I am ANTI MATH as an absolute, because the MATH is flawed at the start of the funnel in basketball, it has a human element which means that the flaws start small and magnify, there is no stat which anyone can point to as the be all end all of stats in regards to basketball. Most of them completely ignore defense, or defensive positioning.....so yeah, I am far from Anti-math, but I am for using math as part of the analysis not the end all - to me people that do that don't understand the game well, and they use math to make up that difference.... They can't explain FT line extended, or a pin down, but they understand how True Shooting is measured. Stats are tools nothing more. DD
The thing is, how do you do your analysis if you ignore the metrics? You can watch every rockets game, which my guess is you do, but when you evaluate someone you have to also keep in mind all other players, and there's no way you watch 60-80 games of every team
You don't have to evaluate every other player, you can use stats to track similar players, and then do a focus on them, say 25 games or so, or to see how they handle similar circumstances. Again, math and stats are part of the evaluation - but far from the end. DD
Do you do that? do you watch at least 25 games of all PG to come to your conclusion that he's average? or above average? or good? or great? or elite?
If there is a position of need, and I will look at certain players - I don't see PG as a position of need, we have a guy that is working very well with Jalen, and is taking a backseat in heirarchy. He is super athletic good on both ends of the floor, and is developing at a good rate. Is he elite? Nope, not right now - but he could get there, is Jalen elite? Nope not yet....just sit back and enjoy their growth, watch them compete and learn and we might have our guard tandem, hell at this point for the right player, anyone could be traded. Paying KPJ about 20m right now, IMHO would be a good move, but I am not the GM, and am fine with waiting and enjoying this year. I don't understand why people hate a player who is turning his life around, is super athletic, left handed, and has a huge upside, that is exactly what you want right now. Not to mention he is plus sized at 6'5ish...too.... DD
Idk who hates him so i can't speak to that. The issue for me is when you say stuff like "good on both ends of the floor" when that is simply untrue. It's not close, or debatable, it's simply false. If your argument was "i think he's super talented and while i understand he has been bad so far, i believe in the athletic talent and would take a chance" then people would respect that. When you say "he's already good on both sides of the ball", people won't take it seriously because it's false. KPJ and sengun are the 2 guys i'm most concerned about long term, and am very iffy on if i want them as long term starters. I want to see a team that can compete for championships. I do not care in any way about the playin, or the playoffs, or any of that.
There is one statistic that you cannot manipulate or twist to fit a narrative and that is how you measure according to your peers. When you are in the 18th percentile in isolation ..... that means 82% of your peers are superior. When you are in the 17th percentile in FT% ..... that means 83% of your peers are superior. When you rank in the 34th percentile in pick and roll ..... that means 66% of your peers are superior.
All of this is fine but it ignores the original thing that you got called out on, which is that you said KPJ is "efficient". Efficiency is measurable, and saying you think KPJ is efficient is why you got labeled anti-math. It's fine to be hopeful that he improves it but he has been objectively inefficient throughout his career.
Isolation as in how? Does it count the times you isolate, blow by your guy and pass off to a wide open 3pt shooter? Or only the times you ISO and shoot? FT% agreed he has to get better, no doubt....he is about 73% this year so far, and was around 72% before coming here so had a poor year. PNR - let's see, who set the pick, and rolled? Does it count what as a successful PnR, if he makes a perfect pass and it fumbles off Wood's hands does it count as an unsuccessful PNR? See this is what I mean, that data is FLAWED...one person could do his job on a PnR perfectly and get dinged because his teamate fumbles the ball. You guys read your stats, but rarely ever review how they are made or look for the flaws in the data - that is something I do every single day of my life, work with data to try to remove flaws......so for me, these stats are a decent starting point, but hardly the be all end all. I think he is efficient, he gets the ball to people in the right spots, he is a decent finisher - needs to go through contact and take it on instead of contorting away, and his turnovers are down below many high usage players. I believe he is getting better - and better, and that is good enough for me.....some of you just want to nitpick because you don't like him. DD
Is this something you can even have an opinion on? If someone shoots 4% on 3s, they are a bad 3 point shooter. Can you say "i think he's a good 3 point shooter because of x, y, z, reason"?
Hmmm, are you saying are any stats like conclusive? I think that once you reach a certain level of ineptude, or success the stats become more valuable, there are massive levels of gray in statistics, because they are flawed in their makup or input. I see people liking posts about whether i can pick apart stats.....and clearly no one is thinking that deeply about the data here at least. I trust the clubs have much more efficient stats than we have access to.....I would say the ones we cite are decent but not great. DD
I think the shooting/efficiency stuff is pretty concrete ya, there's no opinion to it. I don't think you could say that you THINK a 5% 3point shooter is a good 3 point shooter, no.
Just because someone reaches a different conclusion than you do doesn't mean that they haven't thought deeply about it, or they don't know how to deal with data or numbers. Other people here work with data for a living, too. Other people here write code and look for flaws. Your assumptions aren't correct and the condescension isn't necessary.
Boy, you said a MOUTHFUL! I do not understand the hate. A 6'5" PG, who showed what he can do at the end of last yr and carried it over to the Pre-Season. A lefthanded player who can shoot, athletic, young and has huge upside....Pay him! $80M/4yrs
