You should always be thinking about cap management and how that will look today and in the future. Doesn't mean you make offers based on future value of course. Just you need to be prudent. The Rockets will have a LOT of cap space next year, with or without a KPJ extension. They are likely to have more space than the know what to do with it. And KPJs contract with an extension is likely moveable - with assets, but you will need contract $$ to move picks if you are trying to do a pick for all-star type trade. lol
cap explosion was the same rationale used back in 2016 when teams were handing out sh*t contracts left and right Guess what? Those contracts remained sh*tty KPJr is a low minute bench player on a Milwaukee or PHX…would probably have been cut too if he ever dared to throw something in the locker room and then drive off at halftime
Cap management isn't about overpaying a player on your current team way above current market price in fear of losing out on him, and it's also not about overpaying for players just because of a cap increase expected in the future. That's what bad teams like the Kings and Knicks do. And that's how teams like the Lakers ended up with Timofey Mozgov and a way past his prime Luol Deng on massive untradeable bloated contracts, and the Rockets with Ryan Anderson. Again, you may find it funny, but it would be idiotic for the Rockets to operate as if the cap is 100% guaranteed to increase given the current economic climate. Why rush the whole process? If the Rockets were some contending team, then yes try to pinch every penny you can to max out the roster... but the Rockets aren't even close to that.
This didn't happen, he was the same as always and him being an "all star" was pathetic and an embarrassment to the nba. Even hurter, who i would have no interest in on his contract, has been better then kpj. You'd need to find someone who's advanced stats are as bad as kpj and who got paid for the analogy to be reasonable.
Here's what they thought of Keldon Johnson last year https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-player-projections/keldon-johnson/ I'm good ignoring whatever this is lol.... Here's the thing, what's the plan with KPJ? You either think: (1) He will regress and never be a good fit for the Rockets/this squad (2) He is what he is at the moment (3) He has a lot more upside he can reach I tend to think its between 2 and 3. But IF you think its 1, they should be looking to trade him. SOME team might think its between 2 and 3 and overpay if the result really is 1. IF you think its 2, you can wait till next offseason, and MAYBE get him locked up on a better deal. Its not going to be worse then Kevin Huerters that's for sure. I'm not discounting $4 million/year in contract savings, so i see the POTENTIAL benefit of waiting... but I like the new look Rockets that are very player friendly. It seems to have positive karma for them - they kept their top 3 picks 2 years in a row. Tate signs a team friendly deal, etc. I like the idea of mitigating risk. If KPJ gives up 17.5/7/6 on better efficiency and just by virtue of the team being better his advanced stats will be better and he will get a Keldon to RJ deal. If some team is desperate and he gets an RJ deal... i can legit seeing the Rockets not matching, in which case you've wasted 3 years, etc. That's just my perspective.
I think you are way overrating advanced stats relative to context but to each their own. Jalen Green had worse advanced stats, maybe we should dump him, too?
Jalen was a rookie. If year 2 and year 3 jalen is the same as year 1, then ya it would be time to give up on him and accept the sunk cost
You were using the older outdated version of their projections when you looked up Keldon. This is the updated : https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/keldon-johnson/ What’s probably lost on most people in the pro KPJ crowd with my stance is that I do think he has clear ability. And there’s nothing that makes me think he can’t improve. My beef has been with some of the pro KPJ crowds current valuation and what people want to give him or think he is worth RIGHT NOW. Also a difference on how highly others project him to reach. Which if you have read some of the predictions in this thread are absolute fantasy land dreams.
The NBA has already informed teams to expect a n 8% plus rise next year... nothing is set in stone.... but its going up. Whether 4 years, $80 million is an overpay or not is the thing being determined. 4 years, $120 million (RJ) was a clear overpay. Nobody said a worder about Keldon's extension, or Huerter's. Huerter's is an overpay and its insane to me to think Huerter has been a better player than KPJ - what has he done better?
Yes, i was doing that on purpose. I was using last years to show a point.... its just 538 math that they're making up. I like stats, too, but im going to pass on whatever random formula they're using there. Next they'll tell me HIllary Clinton is going to win the 2016 election!
Seems like both sides are just rehashing the same old stuff in this thread over and over... but again, showing contracts that are clear overpays doesn't mean the Rockets should do the same. And in that sense, there really is no point in comparing KPJ to those bad contracts. Why would we want to make the same dumb mistakes that teams like the Knicks and Hawks have made? What the hell have they accomplished in the past two decades to warrant them being some sort of team to model after? Just because the Knicks overpaid for RJ and Brunson doesn't mean we should do the same...
What the heck could we argue about so much this offseason if it weren't for KPJ? I guess we owe him that.
I guess I would say that throughout the history of the NBA late 1st round picks have a pretty low probability of having breakout seasons in the way Keldon Johnson did last year and likely is why that combined with what he had shown prior to last season had his future projection as low as it did. A higher quality season than expected occurred. Higher than anything KPJ has shown so far and their projections adjusted accordingly. Is it possible for KPJ to breakout in a similar way this season? Sure. I don’t know how likely, but the possibility is there.
Exactly, we don't, that's my point. The biggest risk with the KPJ situation, to me, isn't losing him. It's WAY overpaying him. I'd be willing to slightly overpay him now with the Keldon Johnson extension to (1) lock him up, (2) mitigate the overpay risk next year (he can make a HUGE leap on the court next year and I'd still be concerned with overpaying him), (3) continue the streak of being a very player-friendly culture. And in my view it's just a slight overpay if that. And I have no idea where they are anyway. The Keldon contract is my max. But maybe they've only offered $15 per and KPJ camps is asking for $17 per... in which case i definitely do that.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-player-projections/eric-gordon/ There's Eric Gordon's last year. They valued him at under $1 million. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-player-projections/marcus-smart/ There's Marcus Smart... i just picked a random dude, he was valued at $24 million 2 years ago, only $13 million last year, but he signed for 4 years, $77 million. My point is its completely random, all pure numbers based, on some unknown formula, and uses no context whatsoever. I was also taking a jab at 538 in general, as they've lost their shine since blowing their polling analysis a few elections back.
Why are we only looking at this as if KPJ will absolutely command higher money after this season? His career thus far would highly suggest he'll make maybe a minimal improvement compared to his 3rd season in the league. And at that point, would there really be a lot of suitors for him? I doubt it. If anything, KPJ is the one betting against himself and the Rockets have nothing to lose by just letting this play out. There's a higher probability that KPJ performs on a level similar to last season, at which point, other teams will have to decide whether he is even worth the headache. And if that happens, I'd be willing to bet the Rockets can get KPJ on a deal similar to what they got Tate for this offseason, as long as they really want to keep him. If he blows up and becomes a star, all the better. I'd gladly pay him $30M/yr if need be if he really becomes that good. And like you said, the Rockets have a ton of cap room and the cap is expected to increase, so why even worry? On the other hand, if he doesn't improve all that much from last season, and if the Rockets somehow end up with a chance to draft someone like Scoot Henderson, is KPJ even really going to fit on the team when he likely wouldn't even be a starter going forward? There is so much more benefit to just wait this out til next offseason... really don't understand why some folks are in such a rush for giving an extension.
Ok…..? He’s still had 2 more seasons and 2 more offseasons. Pretending that kpj was a rookie and the first 2 years don’t count is wild
Its because this is next years FA class: 2023 NBA Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac Its meh at best. And here are extensions that have been signed: 2022 NBA Extension Tracker | Spotrac He's not going to blow up and become a star, but he can play much better and then get over/fairly paid on that. And that can be a problem. Because if JG does what he hope, he's getting that huge extension, if Jabari can be what he hope, he's getting that huge extension, if Alpi can be what we hope, he's getting that huge extension, Tari, next year's draft, etc. In NO scenario would i do more than the Keldon contract, and in EVERY scenario i'd try to have it be less for sure.
