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To extend KPJ or not?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Lachard Binkley, Jul 29, 2022.

  1. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    KPJ did a "pretty good job" at running point? That's news to me. By all accounts and metrics, he was mediocre at best. You want to go ahead and simply ignore numbers, that's your choice however irrational. Now, I am not going to say that KPJ won't improve or that he can't, because that's just silly to say about someone who is still pretty young. At the same time, I don't believe in rewarding someone because I think they might improve. At the end of the day, we are defined by our actions and results.

    Also, win share is an individual stat, not a team stat.
     
  2. jordnnnn

    jordnnnn Member

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    I have read through the explanation of the stat a bunch of times. Those are estimates that the creator of the stat used to make the formula work.

    You can look up a players win share after every single game. The team can go on a ten game losing streak and still have a player adding to his season total of win shares even though no wins have occurred. It’s why you don’t have to wait for the end of a season to see a players number of win shares. It doesn’t need to know how many wins a team has.

    It’s a formula. Certain stats are assigned winning value. Win or lose you can have positive or negative value based on the stats it uses.

    Many people have it backwards and think team A had X wins and the stat looks to accurately assign how much of those exact number of wins each player was responsible for.

    It actually works more the other way around. The formula assigns a value to certain stats to come up with an expected number of wins a player would add with the production they had on the floor.
     
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  3. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Absolutely correct - his decision making is terrible and this too is backed up by statistics.

    According to NBA stats he takes the highest volume of contested shots on the team by leaps and bounds.
    I know someone is gonna make excuses and blame the talent around him and the system for all his problems but consider that this is the same offense that gets players open to the tune of Eric Gordon taking 96.3% of his 3 point shots with no defender within 4 feet and most of the roster (aside from Mathews and KPJ) have similar numbers.

    And here's the disconnect ....

    Porter isn't 26 and he isn't as efficient or productive as Brunson was prior to earning that $100m deal from NYK but many of you want to pay him like he is - Right Now!.

    There's two problems with that.

    First he hasn't earned it.

    The best he's done is a 10 game stretch where he posted quality statistics and didn't win a single game.

    Second is if we're going to pay him that kinda jack, doing it now eliminates the advantage of bird rights - it needs to occur after spending our cap space next offseason (one way or another FA or trade) before we exceed our cap space to retain him via bird rights.

    Some of you want to extend him now, conceding that cap space and gambling on whether or not he plays up to the value of the deal ..... citing the new TV deal that doesn't start until 2025 as the excuse to give out a potentially bad contract.
     
  4. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    3 point shots from beyond 27 feet ?

    Those are terrible shots under just about any circumstances outside of end of shot clock / quarter / half / game.

    How many of those does he take all year anyway?

    That random twitter guy's acting like KPJ's the second coming of Steph Curry or Dame Lillard chucking 3 balls from the logo and drilling them on a nightly basis. That's not the case and anyone who watched last season knows better.


    Which matters more to a point guard, his 3 point percentage from 27 feet or more .... or his ppp in pick and roll (Bottom 34%) or ppp in isolation (Bottom 18%) where he is far below average in both.


    Relevant stats.
     
  5. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Win shares is a made up algorithm same as PER.

    20ppg and 7+ assists - gonna have a great year on a challenging team.

    DD
     
  6. clutchdabear

    clutchdabear Member

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    Yea, and watch him have a TS% right around 50% and and A/TO ratio under 2. Just like his past 3 seasons.

    Having 20ppg and 7+apg with the highest usage on the team coupled with the lowest efficiency on the team doesn't mean he's a good player. Let's hope he's able to put up stats with better efficiency but I'm not going to expect too much from him.
     
  7. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    Well, nobody says or thinks that. They only exist in KPJ fans fantasy world, to make themselves feel more rational.
     
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  8. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    Where do you find that stat, I mean 3pt beyond 27ft?
     
  9. King1

    King1 Member

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    Dadumbass might be the worst poster ever here. You'd think it's impossible to be that stupid
     
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  10. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    in your mind is westbrook still a top 5 player in the nba? top 10? top 50?
     
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  11. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    Sure worked for Harden.....I am sure he will get better, but I am also betting you won't like him.

    DD
     
  12. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Some dude posted it on twitter and @Verbal Christ posted the tweet.


    Like many of the other stats that these random twitter posters have thrown out there, I doubt the validity of them. They just post crap to support their narrative thinking no one will verify / challenge it.


    The last one was complaining about how tough/bad the shots were that EG took "Only open on 12% of his 3's" ..... where according to NBA stats 93.6% of his 3 point shots had no defender within 4 feet.
     
    #2012 Corrosion, Sep 15, 2022
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2022
  13. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    Are you saying that harden was a low efficiency player? That's a strong take for a guy who's worst TS in houston was 59.8% and is over 60 for his career, including a whopping 66% in his 3rd season
     
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  14. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Dude Harden had 8 seasons with a TS% above .600 and another of .598.


     
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  15. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    trying to talk numbers with a KPJ fanboi is like talking calculus or organic chemistry with a toddler…they simply do not understand
     
  16. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    it's still worth trying to educate folks and help them understand though, it will create a more intelligent fan base
     
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  17. Reeko

    Reeko Member

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    seems like the more u educate, the more they double down on ignorance then run to a random on Twitter for some KPJ self-affirmation
     
  18. astrosrule

    astrosrule Member

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    Fair enough, i just can’t help myself lol
     
  19. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    I don't even know if they keep this kind of stats. What's the point? It would be made up of small sample sizes. And they wouldn't be good shots anyway. Even if you were Steph Curry or Dame Lillard, you wouldn't want to take too many of those.
     
  20. DaDakota

    DaDakota Balance wins
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    I don't care about TS% when we are comparing players, i was talking about ball control, he is very much like Harden in his assists, and attacking the rim.

    His finish is not as strong nor are his FTs but his ability to create separation is a lot like Harden.

    Harden also benefitted by GAMING the game by drawing very cheap fouls - those are now gone......so those numbers would be vastly different today without all those cheap fouls Harden was able to draw.

    The point is that KPJ is 21, has 1 year of playing PG and even Craig Ackerman says he is going to blow up this year and have a huge year....I agree with Craig.

    But some of you will whine and b**** and pine for the good ole days of a TRUE pass first PG until no one listens anymore......because those days are dead.

    DD
     

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