You're probably right to a degree; this is after all his 8th year in the league and he's bound to start declining at some point. His walks though seem to go up and down every year; In '07 he hit 60 but the previous year he was at 38 and the year before he walked 48. His home runs allowed have stayed constant, except for this year. And his BAA (again not counting this season) has been relatively stagnant since '04 when it rose significantly. I could be wrong, but it seems at times this year he's been too aggressive in attacking the strike zone. I'd like to see him reach back to early Roy and try to work the batters a little more. Don't make it so easy on the other team and stay content with just inducing hits.
True. Good points. There would be much more demand for a pitcher and, imo, no one should be "untradeable" if the right deal comes along. They are both signed to reasonable contracts (with no trade clauses?) and are potential Hall of Famers, so i'm not sure the Astros would want to move them even if they are rebuilding. If either one is traded then i think you have to go full-speed in that direction and rebuild/sell as much as possible. If they continue to struggle, the first player i would look to move this year is Tejada.
Yeah - I think this is where the Astros have to figure out if they think Oswalt is on the decline or not. If they think he'll get back to his old self, then you probably don't want to make the trade unless you're fully committed to blowing it all up. If you expect to compete next year, you're going to need a #1 starter, and Oswalt would be that guy. On the other hand, if you think he's on the decline, then I think you do it regardless of if you're rebuilding or reloaded - basically, it would be the Oakland strategy of trading guys like Mulder and getting guys like Haren in return. They did it for financial reasons, but I think they also thought those guys had peaked. I agree with this, especially if Tejada isn't willing to waive his trade/free agent rights at the end of the year.
If we don't trade Roy, we need to finally get him some pitching help and that will be expensive or he's just gonna get frustrated and have mediocre seasons. There's no point of playing .500 ball for the rest of Roy's and Berkman's career if you're paying them good money to watch them lose and decline in value. If i we're GM and this was my salary cap, knowing there's no good pitching on the way up i'd listen to and accept the best offers on everyone but Pence since he's young and under club control. It has to be all or nothing. No point of trading Roy and keeping Lance and Carlos unless you like wasting money. Roy already stated last year he would consider waiving his no trade clause if it helped the team. I really doubt anyone else would use their no trade clause if it meant going to a winner. My spider senses tell me Drayton is just keeping this team competitive enough to fill the stands. If we have a fire sale, the tickets stop selling and if he spends more on quality starting pitching the Astros will lose money even with a full house. Personally, i'd rather play it like the A's and Marlins and realistically try to get a ring than watch non stop years of sub par ball.
Facts are what reporters deal in to report what has already happened. If I am right, you will be dealing with the facts in September. If I am incorrect, then we can deal with facts then. But until then, I am a prognosticator. The fact up to now is this team has played mediocre sub .500 ball for the first 72 games of the season. The fact is we are headed into the dog days gentlemen. And the fact remains that there will be an ongoing debate on whether to trade Roy and Carlos because we are stuck in mediocrity unless we come up with a pitching staff. The fact is we are on course to lose 88 games, that is if we maintain the pace we have been on throughout the first 72 games. And so the fact remains, if we end up trading a couple big guns like Roy and Carlos with the idea of dropping payroll and picking up a pile of young talent, we could very easily run down to 95-100 losses. And that fact is 100 losses is a lot better than 88 losses if it gets up to the top of the draft. Mediocrity gets us nowhere. And McLane and Wade know it. They are either going to make a move for a pitcher to bring us up to contending status or at some point, they are gonna start trading some contracts to build for the future. I am predicting they dump salary in favor of young talent since I do not see any pitching help out there that we can get........because we have no tradable assets except to swap hitting for pitching or pitching for pitching. We have no young talent to trade away guys. So, I believe, when it is obvious this thing ain't gonna turn around, Wade will start dumping some contracts and that means Roy is gone and Carlos and/or Tejada is probably next.
It looks like they'll be around 10 teams at the trading deadline competing and each will need starting pitching, bullpen help, or hitting to fill their holes. Since we have all these and won't pay top dollar in a thin market for more pitching, i don't see why we don't trade all our best guys for some really good prospects. After all, we can't exactly trade our prospects for any real talent. Imagine Roy O anchoring the Yankees staff or Berkman hitting between Manny and Ortiz! Valverde could boost a mediocre bullpen to a great one. If we can't get enough back for say Lee or Tejada, we try and trade them in the off season when some other team decides they're gonna make a bigger push the next year. Could anyone realistically see a post season pitching staff of Roy O, Wandy, Backe, and Moehler taking us to the promise land? We just can't half ass it. We either trade all or none and root for mediocrity. Since we won't follow the Boston, Yankees, Tigers, etc, model of paying for pitching than we need to follow the Florida model of blowing a team up for prospects. They at least have 2 rings in just over a decade of existence compared to zero in a lifetime for us.
that's sad... considering i picked a 90 loss season on the conservative side. 100 losses? when does coop lose his job? is he safe regardless?
furthermore tejada and lee should be priority #1 in a trade. neither of them hold the hearts of houstonians like the wizard and berkman have. but none are trade blockers, and i'd be open to sending any of them off... berkman the least of the 4.
How many fans pack Dolphin stadium on gameday? Personally, if Drayton were to blow up the team after every time they sniffed success I'd be pretty pissed too. And if I had to choose between a team that may win a championship every 10 years or so but doesn't even make the playoffs the other years or a team that is competitive and in the playoffs (or the playoff hunt) for just about every year during the same stretch, I'd probably choose the latter. The Astros should look to their freakin' past if they need to follow any particular model. Honestly I'd be pretty unhappy as a fan if the organization just packed it in and started having a fire sale, cause I don't think the situation demands that. I'm willing to wait another offseason (when a better crop of free agents should be available) to see what the team can do. If next season comes and we're at where are now, then I might entertain the idea. But really I don't believe too much in fire sales in the first place.
Yeah yeah...to hell with facts. These pitchers are going in the tank. The fact that they are statistically pitching worse than their career numbers be damned. Thanks for that little nugget, Nostradamus. You grossly overestimate the value of being at the top of the draft in MLB. Yeah...because that has been Drayton's style so far. Geez. I doubt it. Getting rid of productive players just isn't what Drayton does. At least I can agree with this. Again, Drayton generally does not get rid of his everyday guys...especially popular ones.
There is an absolute 0% chance Cooper will lose his job this year for one simple fact. We are already paying Phil Garner to manage the club this year. Pigs will fly before Drayton will pay 3 managers for one year. Our scouts are the ones that need to be fired! They've done such a great job filling our farm system with talent! It's not like we even have an excuse we traded away another Freddy Garcia type pitcher away to win now. Also, who gave the advice not to hold on to Johan Santana? Our last 1st round pick should prove it. Anyone have an idea who was the last "good" catcher taken in round 1?
wait wait.... did we keep our scouts after last year? drafting players who clearly wouldn't sign? i thought that fell on fatty tim, but if the scouts play in to that as well, they need to be fired. the last good catcher taken was probably buck maybe? i'm not sure which round he was taken in.
The fact is that this team is nowhere remotely close to being at the winning percentage required to lose 100 games. Wade would, if it were in his control. It's not. McLane doesn't know the meaning of the word rebuild, and you're clueless if you think he's going to do it now. What stopped him last season? The Astros attempt to retool and patch holes. You may disagree with the strategy -- I certainly do, at least partially. But it is what it is, and the approach isn't going to switch 180 degrees. Of course, even if the Astros do that, it would happen far too late in the season to come anywhere close to the 100 loss pace. And if they ditch Oswalt -- the candidate most likely to be dealt, if one does (which is incredibly unlikely) -- it would have very, very little impact on the overall team record based on how poorly he's pitched to this point. No, it's not going to turn around. This isn't a playoff team, unless the WC is in the low 80s, which is doubtful. But it's also nowhere near a 100-loss team.
Who's to say they won't follow that model? I absolutely think and know the Astros would "pay" for pitching. It just wasn't available last offseason in free agency, and the Astros didn't have the necessary prospects to get a pitching acquisition of any significance via trade.
Under what rock were you hiding during their run? We were all here through the entire time. To come in here after a 3-15 stretch and crow again amounts to Internet cowardice. Are you that cowardly in real life as well? The Astros will lose about 82 games. Maybe 86 or 90. But not 100.
...really, now? We don't? First, tell me who was to be had to pay for last year or the year before that they didn't make a run at. (I'm already prepared to dismiss the Eric Milton caliber "pitchers".) Next, tell me who was to be had in 2004-2006 that they didn't make a run at.
I don't see us getting to 100 loses...I actually think we need to say bye to Coop and then we turn it around...
